Pakistan and India

Background to the conflict between Pakistan and India, potential implications for Ukraine, and an overview comparison between the two countries.

BACKGROUND

In 1947, British India was divided into two independent states: India and Pakistan. The partition led to widespread violence and migration, largely driven by religious affiliations. Jammu and Kashmir (then a princely state) had a Muslim majority but was ruled by a Hindu maharaja, who chose to accede to India after being invaded by tribal forces from Pakistan.

This triggered the first war between India and Pakistan in 1947–1948, resulting in a ceasefire brokered by the United Nations. The ceasefire agreement established a de facto border known as the Line of Control (LoC), dividing the region between the two countries.
Despite this, both India and Pakistan continue to claim the entire territory of Kashmir, and multiple attempts at mediation have failed to resolve the issue.

India and Pakistan have fought several wars since the initial conflict:

• 1965: A war over Kashmir that ended in a stalemate.
• 1971: A war that led to the independence of Bangladesh from Pakistan.
• 1999: The Kargil conflict, in which Pakistani soldiers and militants infiltrated Indian positions in Kashmir.

In addition to these wars, there have been numerous border skirmishes, diplomatic crises, and terrorist attacks by militant groups.
Some of these groups seek independence from both India and Pakistan, while others advocate for unification with Pakistan.

• Hizbul Mujahideen: One of the oldest and most influential groups, aiming to unite Kashmir with Pakistan.
• Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT): A Pakistan-based Islamist group responsible for the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Active in Kashmir, and linked to several terrorist acts according to Indian sources.
• Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM): Another Pakistan-based militant group responsible for multiple attacks.
• The Resistance Front (TRF): A newer group believed to be a front for LeT or a splinter faction. Claimed responsibility for several recent attacks.

The situation in Kashmir has remained tense for decades, marked by a series of terrorist incidents:

• In 1989, an organized armed uprising began in the Indian-controlled part of Jammu and Kashmir. Initially sparked by peaceful protests and discontent among the Muslim population, it quickly escalated into an insurgency led by militant groups.
• Between 1990 and 1996, violent fighting forced almost the entire Hindu population (Kashmiri Pandits) to flee the Kashmir Valley.
• 2001: India’s Parliament was attacked by militants allegedly from Pakistan. This resulted in a major military standoff.
• 2008: More than 270 people were killed over four days during terrorist attacks in Mumbai. India blamed Lashkar-e-Taiba, supported by Pakistan's intelligence agency ISI.
• 2016: The "Uri attack" targeted an Indian army base. India accused Jaish-e-Mohammed and responded with surgical strikes across the border.
• 2019: A suicide bombing in Pulwama killed over 40 Indian soldiers. JeM claimed responsibility. India retaliated with airstrikes on Balakot in Pakistan — the first such incursion in decades.
• 2023–2025: TRF conducted several smaller attacks and targeted killings of Hindus, local politicians, and Indian soldiers.
  

Other contributing factors beyond Kashmir:

• Religious and ethnic tensions between the Muslim majority in Kashmir and the Hindu-dominated Indian state.
• Political alienation: many young people in Kashmir feel marginalized by India’s central government.
• Economic underdevelopment in parts of the region.
• Heavy militarization and allegations of human rights abuses have fueled radicalization.
• External influence, particularly from Pakistan, which India accuses of funding and training militant groups.

Water access
The Indus River system comprises six major rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. Several originate in Indian-controlled Kashmir and flow into Pakistan, making Pakistan heavily reliant on Indian-controlled water for both drinking and agriculture.

In 1960, the Indus Water Treaty was signed with the World Bank as mediator. The agreement stated:

• Pakistan receives exclusive control over the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
• India controls the eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
• India may use the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes like hydropower, provided it doesn't reduce the flow to Pakistan.

This treaty is seen as highly successful for enduring despite conflict. However, recent reports suggest India may be violating the treaty (if current claims are accurate). Some Indian voices advocate for abandoning it altogether, which would be catastrophic for Pakistan.
Water access has not historically been the main source of conflict, but India has previously threatened to cut off the supply.

The India-Pakistan relationship is highly complex. While history plays a central role, religion, geopolitics, and Pakistan’s water dependency on India are also critical factors.

The Current Conflict

In April 2025, the crisis escalated with an attack in Pahalgam, a tourist destination under Indian control. Twenty-six people, mostly Hindu tourists, were killed. The Resistance Front initially claimed responsibility but later withdrew the statement. India blamed Pakistan, which denied involvement.

On May 7, India launched "Operation Sindoor," targeting nine locations in Pakistan, including Bahawalpur, Muridke, and Muzaffarabad, which India identified as terrorist infrastructure. Pakistan reported 31 civilian deaths and 57 injuries and claimed it shot down several Indian fighter jets and responded with artillery strikes.

Recent reports indicate an aerial engagement involving as many as 125 fighter jets.

This escalation has led to a severe diplomatic crisis, with diplomatic ties severed, borders closed, and airspace suspended. International leaders, including UN Secretary-General António Guterres, have expressed concern and urged restraint.

How the Conflict Could Affect Ukraine and the War Against Russia

It is difficult to make any exhaustive analysis, of course a lot depends on how it develops, whether it will be a full-scale war or whether it will be escalated.

One immediate impact is a shift in media focus: coverage of the new conflict is overshadowing the war in Ukraine.
This could lead to Ukraine being overlooked, especially among the general public, potentially reducing donations.
If the conflict escalates, major aid organizations may redirect some resources.
Diplomatically, India-Pakistan tensions now command more global attention.

A full-scale war could spark competition for military resources, especially weapons and ammunition. Ukraine would likely suffer more than Russia, which maintains a steady supply through allies like North Korea. Ukraine, by contrast, relies heavily on external partners, who might prioritize deliveries to India or Pakistan.

China, a close ally of both Russia and Pakistan, could intervene to pressure India. India claims neutrality in the Ukraine war but might side with Ukraine if China enters the conflict. Currently, India does not supply Ukraine directly, so the practical effect may be limited.
Alternatively, India might consider aligning with Russia to counter Chinese influence, should Beijing escalate its involvement.
As usual in conflicts, oil prices may rise, benefiting Russia economically.

Oljepriset riskerar förstås att stiga som det brukar göra vid konflikter och det kommer att gynna Ryssland.

Unfortunately, the conflict probably benefits Russia more than it benefits Ukraine, so for the sake of the people of India and Pakistan, and for the sake of Ukraine, we must hope that a full-scale war does not break out, or that if it does, it will be a short-lived war. It is not far-fetched to suspect that the attacks that started the conflict were orchestrated by Russia, but given all the years of unrest and terrorist attacks, it was perhaps only a matter of time.

---

India and Pakistan: Key Facts

Military capacity and nuclear weapons

India
Military personnel: ~1.4 million active soldiers
Nuclear weapons: estimated 130–140 warheads

Pakistan
Military personnel: ~650,000 active soldiers
Nuclear weapons: estimated 140–150 warheads

Both nations possess nuclear arms, but India maintains a "no first use" doctrine, at least officially. Pakistan does not.

International Alliances and Relations
India
USA: Strategic partnership, particularly in defense and technology.
Russia: Historic defense partner, though ties have weakened somewhat in recent years.
Japan and Australia: Members of the Quad alliance to counter China's influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Pakistan
China: Strong ally, particularly in defense and economic cooperation.
Saudi Arabia and Turkey: Important partners for both economic and military collaboration.
USA: Previously close, especially during the Cold War and the War on Terror, though less so today.

Demographics and Economy
India
Population: ~1.46 billion (2025)
GDP per capita: ~$2,382 (2025)
Economy: One of the world's fastest-growing, with strengths in IT, services, and manufacturing

Pakistan
Population: ~240.5 million (2025)
GDP per capita: ~$1,365 (2025)
Economy: Faces challenges such as high inflation, debt, and dependency on foreign aid