I think it’s an oversimplification to believe that Trump controls everything the USA does. Rubio has his sights set on Cuba. There are still many in the administration who do not like Russia, it’s a circus where they try to get Trump’s ear. I find it less likely that Trump would pull off some gigantic masquerade and say when he resigns, “haha, I wanted you to vote for the Democrats now”. However, I can buy into a hypothesis where he wants Europe to buy a lot of weapons from the USA.

At the same time, every forum post is basically too short to describe this properly. But the thirst for power domestically is real, for example.

Division of Europe is a page that has support in statements from, among others, JD Vance on issues related to domestic politics in various EU member states. If so, this coincides with interests from Russia. But the USA has also expressed an interest in a Europe that takes responsibility for its own security. Which requires cooperation and unity in Europe. A strong Europe benefits the USA in the economic and military power struggle with China, which can at least militarily get relief and focus its military on China. At times, it has seemed, especially during Trump’s second presidency, that there was a possibility of getting Russia on board against China, a reverse Kissinger, but that path has not played out well so far. Russia is stuck in China’s grip. The conclusion that Europe should stop leaning on the USA and adopt its own significant power position is, however, a result of Trump urging Europe to increase its military budgets within NATO since his first presidency. No other consequence can be expected. And as mentioned, this requires Europe to act united. This contradicts the idea that the USA wants to divide Europe. Perhaps the USA needs a strong and united Europe as China grows stronger and Russia continues to undermine the West?

Well, there are so many things that we do not know, so it is mostly speculation.

When it comes to Ukraine, it often seems that Trump has actually let himself be manipulated by Putin, we know from before that he has been impressed by him, and that he has always avoided pressuring him. After each conversation with him, he repeats Putin’s ideas.

Now we have the kidnapping of Maduro, and the seizure of Russian ships. We have bombings in Iran and Syria, yes, and as you wrote, oil tariffs, etc. All this is negative for Russia, their influence around the world is decreasing, which is good. The reason the USA got involved is economic, not humanitarian or to punish Russia, that’s just a positive side effect.

It was somewhat similar under Biden, but Trump started with a clean slate. It felt like Trump didn’t know anything about Ukraine or Russia, but talked to Putin, talked to Zelensky, formed an opinion that Putin is a decent man, Zelensky is trash. Putin speaks the truth, Zelensky lies. Ukraine started the war, Russia is the victim. And from that starting point, it was about getting Trump on the right side. Trump would never help anyone for free, and every weapon delivery from the USA is a form of pressure.

It may not be very likely that Trump is controlled by Russia, but it is crazy enough that their interests coincide. Both want to divide Europe, both lack respect for agreements and laws.

As someone wrote some time ago: Both want to revive their country’s greatness, neither has any connection to reality.

Personally, I am affected by the fact that the comment button stops working, but not as often as before.

There is a saying – hate randomness.

Coincidences, you say.

Starting with the examples in my previous post above, by chance Trump picked a significant leadership position in Venezuela for Russia. When he was actually going for oil. India happened to reduce its import of Russian oil (when Trump was supposed to sell his own oil?). Ukraine has received the coordinates on how to most effectively target oil refineries in Russia (again because Trump wants to sell his own oil, now including that from Venezuela).

Currently, American combat aircraft are moving closer to Iran. So, has Israel got a feeling again?

And all these American initiatives, not just in Venezuela, but also in Iran, India, Syria, Azerbaijan, and perhaps Armenia, are also part of a deal with Russia? Where not only the US’s “backyard” Venezuela is involved, but also several Russian neighboring countries, and not least domestic Russian oil production?

If one looks beyond the talk and what is actually happening on the ground, there are not many things that have actually gone Russia’s way. And this includes the events in which the USA is somehow involved. What is actually happening on the ground in Greenland is that troops are in place but not American. American troops are engaged elsewhere though. Especially now in Venezuela, Iran. Is the Baltic region a front we think is worth reinforcing? Despite the Russians’ involvement in Ukraine? If the answer is yes, given that Russia has built up a reserve with personnel and modern equipment, what says that this reserve cannot just as easily be used against Greenland? Together with Russia’s naval forces based in Murmansk and elsewhere in the Arctic? I assume as usual no one wants to answer the question since the prevailing theory is about “Krasnov,” the “demented orange,” the “Fanta-führer,” and others around whom everything is built on this site, and its sister site. It’s a bit like underestimating the Russians. In the latter case, Ukraine does not win because Putin is an imbecile and the Russians are idiots, but because the Ukrainians are smart. It is just as foolish to underestimate Trump. There is something in what Trump says about getting Europe to invest in defense. Because it is not enough for the USA to take all security policy responsibility with a China that has significantly strengthened its military capacity. Greenland has been a blank spot for which Europe has not taken any military responsibility. Until now. In that way, Trump’s actions have been smart from a security perspective. But it’s just chance that it turned out well for the West and badly for Russia.

Again, hate randomness..

Once again, I managed to write a long post, and while I was writing, I got logged out, sigh.

Well, in short, it was about how Trump sometimes does things that benefit us, the people in other countries, and harm Russia, but it’s mostly just coincidences. He simply does the right things sometimes but for the wrong reasons. He didn’t go after Maduro because he was a jerk, but for the oil; he didn’t bomb Iran to protect the people, but because Netanyahu and the Christian right wanted it; now he hesitates because Israel is not currently threatened.

He doesn’t care about old agreements or international law.

The Greenland issue is a test of Europe’s and the EU’s cohesion. The Russians cheer as their main “asset” succeeds in one year with what they’ve been trying to do for 70 years: to divide NATO and Europe.

If we are divided, it will be open season for those with significant military power to seize. Trump could then threaten his way to agreements that give him everything and the other party nothing.

Now we must hope that he makes himself impossible domestically, so he gets impeached; it can’t be far off. Vance isn’t any better, but they might as well vote him out too if he turns out to be as crazy as Trump once he’s gone.

I wonder if the cold weather has any significance here. And it’s going to continue to be really cold.