No shit, Sherlock Conflict researcher 😂!

A good grade for the comment field ✊

All involved higher mammals most likely have an IQ above the normal range, including Trump, but they are all limited by their perspective, worldview, and actual room for maneuver. Traits like risk propensity or frustration are personality traits and not an expression of low intelligence….

Reflections on target images, ideological and economic motives, economic and political realities, as well as the personality of individuals (not intellectually, but just personality) decode the forum’s discussions on the US, Trump, UA, Zelensky, and others, better than ever.

Great to read!

Exactly. The goal for the US is clear, almost crystal clear. All analysis needs to start with that insight.

Threats of sanctions are probably the least effective against Putin. Threats to disrupt energy infrastructure (refineries!) probably bite harder.

👍💕

https://bsky.app/profile/24hoursukraine.bsky.social/post/3lk4zdr5dvk27

Zelensky is a comedian who became a politician, Lindsey Graham is a politician who became a comedian.
He changes his opinion every day.”

Kamil Galeev, who usually has good analyses (about rubber tires, Russian weapon production, etc.), writes the following in his latest newsletter, and I interpret it as there probably won’t be any ceasefire from the Russian side if Kamil is right.

Let’s recall what we have learnt about the post-Soviet planning.

First thing you need to know is that the post-Soviets never take interests, or stance of the other side remotely into their consideration. They set their own agenda (“what we want”) and try to impose it onto the other side, forcefully. That is their plan A.

Another thing you need to know is that they never have a plan B in case their plan A goes wrong.

Now I don’t know if I have claimed that Trump is playing 5D chess, but I think he is now doing what he previously said he would do.

I do believe that RU would benefit from a ceasefire, but at the same time, they will appear weak. So, assuming they think they can keep going for a while longer, they will say no. RU’s arm needs to be twisted significantly for them to agree to anything other than exactly what their conditions are.