{"id":10861,"date":"2026-10-20T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/and-so-it-has-begun-20-october-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-10-20T08:37:35","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T06:37:35","slug":"and-so-it-has-begun-20-october-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/and-so-it-has-begun-20-october-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"And So it Has Begun, 20 October 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This was initially going to be a front-line review, then I thought more about the revolution in Paris, and now we’ve landed on the global power play instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today I\u2019m squeezing in the front-line review in the post and tomorrow some thoughts about France.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, I have three days of meetings with clients and contractors where they are about to sign the contract for the project two years late. Only the commercial part remains, but they seem to have already agreed, so it\u2019s a formality, but it also means I\u2019ll go into radio silence for a few days. The positive thing is that there\u2019s always a full Italian buffet lunch and then Spanish steaks for dinner, which is probably the only thing I get out of those meetings since my job starts when the project kicks off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Everyone can see that things are going well for Ukraine, really well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the fronts, the 3rd AC has reached Zherebets in the entire area they have been fighting in and seems to have paused there as far as I can tell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are several other areas in northern Luhansk to target instead, and above all, their medium-range drones now reach all supply routes in northern Luhansk, which are the lifeline to Donbass.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other day they droned St Petersburg and the export terminal for oil and LNG, a very long finger to Trump since that terminal and the burning oil tanks contain his diesel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The daily loss figure that MXT presents daily on johanno1.se after having stolen it from someone is absolutely sky-high now, often over 2,000 fallen barbarians per day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We don\u2019t hear much because Ukraine respects full OPSEC, but for example in Kostyantynivka, which Putin has already confirmed is captured, there are Ukrainian patrols in the southern parts of the city.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

At the Dnieper, Ukraine has also started fighting near the Oleshky bridge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

You can be confident that there is full speed and a lot of dead Russians; I don\u2019t believe for a second that Ukraine loses 30,000 per month in KIA as has been circulated. They have clarified themselves that the ratio is 1:5 in total losses and 1:11 in fatalities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Something UA has also just said, with the risk that it changes, is that the daily lottery numbers are fatalities and that wounded are much higher. Since I have fought my own war for about 4.5 years claiming exactly that and everyone else who ever discussed it with me laughed it off as a misunderstanding, I feel a certain early vindication. Like a warm breeze in the middle of the icy cold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian losses are now approaching 50,000 per month and they are unable to recruit to replenish \u2013 a downward slope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin\u2019s plan in Ukraine is only one: to try to hold out until the rest of the multi-stage rocket he concocted with Trump takes effect. I will return at the end with his last saving grace, but we are not there yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Johan No.1 has for maybe two years marketed the following \u2013 the USA designed the Cold War to keep Europe down, Roosevelt bullied a finally desperate Churchill out and laughed at all Stalin\u2019s jokes during Yalta. Poland became collateral and was given to Stalin despite Churchill\u2019s wild protests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the strongest reasons for the USA to enter the war was to topple the hated British Empire \u2013 on good grounds, it should be added. It was dismantled in the years after WW2 and is what it is today, fish and chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rest of Europe was to be kept down in a Cold War where we bought security and weapons from the USA at five times the market price, and the USA probably had its best years during the Cold War \u2013 the American Dream?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Europe, we struggled with everything: reconstruction, self-image (especially the Germans since everyone had rejected their own worldview), and not least the Soviet subversive activity which was enormous and infiltrated everywhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1991, the Soviet empire fell and we had some good years in the 90s where Europe decided to welcome Russia into the fold and we bought everything they sold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin came to power and in 2007 in Munich he gave a speech where he told exactly what he was going to do, but Europe kept sleeping.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2014, Russia started its war with Ukraine which became an open full war in 2022 and has gone terribly badly. Russia has also been clear about its ambitions, to restore Soviet borders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between 2022 \u2013 2025, the USA betrayed Ukraine more times than I can count and Europe was no better, but over time country after country in Europe changed course as they began to understand that Ukraine was just a step on the way for Russia to come after them. Thanks to Trump and his \u201cart of the deal,\u201d the entire West is now pissed off and starting to go its own way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simply put, the further away from Russia you are, the less interested you become in how Ukraine is doing. We up here in the Nordics are quite alert and among the countries that have supported Ukraine the most. When it comes to both volume and high-tech, Sweden probably ranks among the best in the world, almost?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before 2022, Russia had bought politicians and bribed both the far left and the far right so we are politically weak. Europe has shut down electricity production and mining capacity, and moved a lot of manufacturing to China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We don\u2019t need to go through those turns, but it was done along with shutting down our armed forces in the name of eternal peace, and inside this mess the Russian subversive activity has been simmering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The USA, on its side, has sold us weapons and didn\u2019t think we should have our own manufacturing, and China has willingly accepted taking over our manufacturing only to sell it back to us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then Trump changes and says we can build our own weapons, and when we do, he\u2019s mad about that too \u2013 of course, exciting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We bought \u2013 raw materials, fuel, weapons, security, and all consumer goods from others. Everyone was happy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now today, 2026, we want Russia to lose the war in Ukraine, we don\u2019t buy American weapons, and we have built the first trade barriers against China \u2013 no one is happy anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other thing we picked up early was that the USA \u2013 Russia had their own communication despite the USA flatly denying it. We saw it already early in 2023 when Russia called them about the first Kursk offensive. Until 2025, the USA handled it fairly smoothly but it was clear that Ukraine was not going to win so their opportunities were sabotaged. It was also clear that Russia would get something but not too much \u2013 the USA tried to find some balance where Ukraine was a pawn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Certain countries in Europe were definitely on the same track \u2013 Scholz\u2019s excellent \u201ccan\u2019t Ukraine just give up so everything returns to normal\u201d in 2022 is somewhat of a modern classic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only problem was the Ukrainians. Zelensky has been scolded countless times by Europe, Biden, Trump, and all sorts of others for the audacity to dare to defend themselves and even fight back well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UN, Amnesty, and the Red Cross have all on occasions criticized Ukraine for war crimes and have been very slow to criticize Russia \u2013 many have experienced that criticism as highly perfunctory under duress.<\/p>\n\n\n

When Trump took office, the administration immediately started pressing all the buttons at once, rushing toward something that was clear \u2013 but what. We have guessed around a bit toward something that is where we are now headed, and now the picture is quite clear to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After Trump’s meetings with Putin and Xi (I don’t remember exactly when Trump met Xi the first time), the US threw itself over Venezuela and Iran; Cuba is also in a bad position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then they started pointing with the whole hand toward South America in general, and no one dares to protest because Maduro’s perp walk did not look good at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both Russia and China have invested heavily in Venezuela but kept quiet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump bungled Iran terribly, but now these days Lavrov is there asking the Iranians to calm down and do as the US says. “You have to take one for the team.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the US says it wants peace in our time in Ukraine, as long as Zelensky gives up some land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Somewhere around here we can actually conclude that Putin and Trump have made a global deal on world division. During the Cold War, different areas were no-go zones for the other, and then they fought over proxy arenas. But they followed the agreements that existed. New governments came and others went, and sometimes the situation became tense, but everyone stayed more or less within their reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This system is now reborn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Until now, we have asked the question \u2013 how does China fit into this?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We do not know yet because China has not played its hand, but Trump has met Xi twice, I think, and soon a third time. It is now being marketed as our time’s Yalta, and of course Europe is not invited, but there they will solve the Ukraine war for eternal peace, without Ukraine and Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Giving each other little pinches within the rules is part of the deal, especially it looks like there is no deal then. Trump has many times downplayed that Russia supports Iran with target designations and missiles, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump is impulsive and a general idiot, but now finally came his counterreaction to Zelensky’s statements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The mask completely fell off: “peace in our time” is now just “can\u2019t you just give up, you bastard, so I\u2019ve done my part of the deal, the others are starting to get mad at me.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I assume quite a few in the US are now ashamed to death of having this defector as president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What I think we have is the following, and since Russia has a poor negotiating position because of the detested Zelensky, the US gets more \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

South America (the entire area, so Latin America, the Caribbean, South America, Central America) is the US’s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MENA is the US’s and that includes Iran, and they must at least shape up immediately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia has all the old Soviet republics claimed (funny when all of them sought towards the EU, we don\u2019t have the capacity to help them and will become the friends who betray).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe is a cooperation project between the US and Russia; we shall be kept on a leash just like during the Cold War, but Russia probably is not allowed to enter Poland. However, Russia is allowed to be inside and wreak subversive havoc with us as much as they want.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US gets Greenland and Russia takes Svalbard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China has its neighborhood where Taiwan is already Chinese, dominance in the Chinese Sea, and the “first defense ring” will have to stand there without help from the US. Exactly what they have cooked up down there we do not know yet, but the fact that Australia and New Zealand just sought out Europe suggests they can read the room.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Africa becomes a proxy arena for this Cold War as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India and Pakistan remain to be seen; maybe they will be set against each other?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exactly the same as during the Cold War with the difference that China gets a piece of the cake this time, and everyone against Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now today Trump has done what he should, exactly why he did it before the election we can argue about, but now Trump has done his part for Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia has then gone to Iran to fulfill the last thing they need to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump is too clumsy to successfully sell this and no one buys his bad lies, but the plan is flawless, the same as during the Cold War.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It Is Underway Now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

-The US has stopped all weapons to Europe and Ukraine, even those already paid for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-The US has withdrawn all offensive units from Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-The information umbrella that the US provides is being dismantled, and Starlink is not restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Russian satellites have begun repositioning close to Europe’s most important reconnaissance satellites, about 20 warnings so far, I saw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-The US will make good on its threat not to sell diesel and oil to Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-The US will demand that their weapons platforms do not engage targets in Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-The US will very soon accuse Ukraine of being the aggressor, read below and something I have said for 3-4 years that we would come here with the difference that it was Putin who would be sitting and crying loudly at the UN. Didn\u2019t think it would be the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-The hybrid war in Europe will increase, for example revolutionary movements everywhere creating chaos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-The financial crisis is probably just starting, and the US will do everything to make it hit Europe hardest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Russia will provide a black swan for this financial crisis for Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-IT\/hacker attacks on Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Attacks on our LNG, fuel, and oil reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Cutting the sea cables to Europe, both communication and power transmission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Does not exclude a new covid; now antibiotic-resistant persmitta accidentally escaped from a Russian laboratory, so sure, it is something they amuse themselves with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Political playground, meaning more than what we have right now in Sweden with the government formation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-A possible attack in some form on the Baltics; Russian SOF are already inside the countries, by the way. Exactly what happens in that area is probably directly correlated to how many fangs Europe shows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Within a year, the following will unfold; we have reasoned along these lines, but McAllister can write, unlike me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Trump is signaling that he may be prepared to sign a peace agreement with Russia and dare Ukraine to reject it. Before you scoff, consider this hypothetical scenario:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Trump announces a 28-point peace framework that includes hundreds of billions in reconstruction funding, territorial swaps, a demilitarized zone, arrangements for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and American-backed security guarantees. Essentially a sweetened Witkoff\u2013Dmitriev plan.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Putin goes on television, announces that the \u201cSpecial Military Operation\u201d is over, accepts the agreement, and declares an end to offensive operations.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Trump announces that America considers the war over and formally certifies a cessation of hostilities to Congress (setting the stage for lifting sanctions on Russia). He warns that if Ukraine rejects the agreement and continues military operations, Washington will consider Ukraine as the aggressor, not the victim, and reconsider its military, intelligence, and diplomatic support accordingly.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Markets surge; oil dumps. A handful of European leaders, China, and other governments welcome the breakthrough and congratulate Trump on ending the war. Trump spends the final days of the American election campaign declaring that he accomplished what everyone said was impossible. Is this the very scenario President Zelensky was concerned about on television today?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

There and then it will be decided whether Europe will be subdued under a 70-80 year long cold war or if we will rise up, shake off our shackles and become a force for good in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we just break away France \u2013 they have chaos in the streets, the country is nearly bankrupt and Le Pen is on her way to a majority if this continues. Do you think France will be ready to go to war for Australia, Estonia or send troops to Ukraine in the future?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky and Budanov have repeatedly told us that Russia is ready to attack the Baltics in 2027. I have been worried that they would do it earlier, everyone else thinks it will take until at least 2029-2030 before anything happens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The escalation phase we are now seeing suggests that sometime in 2027 the rest of Europe will be so deeply marinated in its own internal problems that we will not be able to handle one more problem and will stop responding to the Baltics\u2019 desperate pleas over WhatsApp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don\u2019t know if I can say it more clearly, just came up with this actually, I think it could become a winged expression \u2013 \u201cyou had to choose between cowardice or war, now you chose cowardice and so you will get war\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No one likes a coward and we are far past the point where low-affect responses work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US will do what they do until either the citizens take the problem internally or Europe proves to be a worthy opponent to be reckoned with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US will not go to war with us, but they don\u2019t have to sell us everything we need either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem may just be that Europe will never become a worthy opponent for anyone else \u2013 we are such a big threat to everyone else after our colonial ravages and our two world wars that we probably simply have to show that we have fangs so we are left alone and then build our part of the world with Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the countries in Africa that want fair trade agreements with us and connect with us in a fair way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The worst that can happen is if authoritarian leaders also rise from our ashes and we just divide the world into four instead of three but my hope lies with the EU and the 27 democracies that have formed the EU \u2013 it is considerably harder for a Xi, Trump or Putin to take over here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I know what I want to see and if Europe decides on it we will get there \u2013 we are formidable. But we have a large group of lousy politicians between us and the goal in this hurdle race where some are also bought by Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway \u2013 now it has begun<\/strong>. Don\u2019t forget your paid subscription for more Lord of the Rings quotes and eternal peace.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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