Last week was fully booked with all-day meetings until 8:00 PM Tuesday – Friday, hence the radio silence, but the Italian finger-food lunches and the Spanish steakhouse were worth it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unfortunately, this will probably be a somewhat sour post because now the armed forces have to cut back on exercises and equipment while we have allocated budget for the French frigates \u2013 Putin has nothing to do with these decisions, but it\u2019s hard to see that he wouldn\u2019t be the happiest in Europe about it. Sweden is highly ranked as a threat by Russia, and if we put all the money into frigates with a ten-year construction time instead of building a drone weapon worth its name and train every day except Christmas Eve, that is very welcome for Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another frontline update will come on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I have stopped discussing with defense Twitter users, but when it comes to the Baltics, they apparently haven\u2019t understood the Daugava line at all and think that 1,000 American soldiers in Lithuania are a sufficiently large buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then Finland and Norway decided to call Putin and discuss various things, contrary to Europe\u2019s agreement to stonewall him. The call was, as expected, a failure with nothing of value. Unfortunately, Putin probably feels that cracks have appeared in the EU and that his hybrid war and playing for time in Ukraine are paying off. A fairly big diplomatic mistake in my opinion, perhaps only surpassed by the fact that the armed forces have to save so we get nice frigates sometime in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you have reached the acceptance that it is RU behind the unrest in Europe, possibly in cooperation with other countries, it will play out as follows \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When it comes to revolutions or demonstrations, the number of participants is always what matters. Thirty old pensioners with homemade signs and walkers will never achieve the impact they seek, even if they believe so because their sight and hearing are so impaired that they only see silent shadows and the demonstration is nationwide for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The organizations behind will move the protests to the countries where they get the best results \u2013 I believe it pays off for governments to hit hard, early, and show leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The welfare and high-tax countries in Europe have, after all, agreed with their citizens to take over the monopoly on violence, and then the citizens should be protected from looting, assault, riots, and rapes \u2013 it is part of the whole package and the social contract that has been accepted even if that connection is not entirely clear to everyone today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Apparently, over 3,000 stores have been looted in France, so quite extensive with many hard-working low-income earners now going bankrupt personally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
France is a socialist country where over 60% of tax revenue goes into welfare, so there isn\u2019t much injustice there beyond some succeeding better in working life than others, which is a natural law you cannot legislate away, just as some get sicker than others or get better\/worse grades in school \u2013 there is therefore no reason for revolution, and those who take a mild view of what is now unfolding have got it wrong. We have the usual gang in Sweden with G\u00f6ran at the forefront who still see a bit of revolutionary romanticism in this. Our national icon has kept quiet after the first video where she happily supported full revolution, so I don\u2019t know what she has been up to the past week, maybe she understood the damage to optics and the brand?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If a country is perceived as weak or paralyzed, the organizations quickly move their operations there because they are part of a network throughout Europe. Then they bus in demonstrators who get to run wild beyond the country\u2019s own bright future that is available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As said \u2013 it\u2019s about getting the volumes on board, and right now they are testing everywhere, but baton blows and mass arrests dampen the will for revolution, especially if promised looting does not occur for the high school students and they are either expelled from the country for life or receive significant prison sentences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Spain and the UK are probably in a bad position, both have governments that feel it is their side that has taken to the streets for a fundamentally good cause, so they drag their feet without perhaps fully understanding what is rolling in. Their concern is about right-wing extremists and fascists, so they are a bit colorblind right now. It was the same gang that championed Sanchez when he abandoned the residents of Ceuta in something that is inexplicable to me, as he shortly after fully used the monopoly on violence to crack down on demonstrations for safety and security in Ceuta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since the UK sends all the Storm Shadow missiles they produce to combat high-value targets deep inside Russia, revolutionary riots are almost guaranteed as revenge \u2013 they will be very hard hit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia wants chaos in Europe, so all countries are legitimate targets except their direct allies Bulgaria, Serbia, and Slovakia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They will try France for a good while, but I think the country has acted responsibly regarding the protests \u2013 the first weekend low-impact and the second weekend hitting hard with everything they have. If they continue at this pace, they might stamp out the grass fire before it takes hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Germany has a very tough riot police, very nasty, and if they really get going, it won\u2019t be fun to stand with a ski mask and a TV in your arms on some backstreet in Berlin when they show up around the corner with a generous mandate behind them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Portugal will just deploy the military and Meloni as well \u2013 both countries show decisiveness, and from the Italian X accounts, only paratroopers are marching in step right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We have nothing in Sweden yet, which surprises me a bit, but they wanted to get rid of the Tid\u00f6 coalition, so maybe they have decided that nationwide protests will give the Tid\u00f6 coalition another four years?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I think Spain, France, and the UK will be hardest hit by the \u201crevolution 2026\u201d. Have you noticed that they are trying to drum in dates as historic, \u201cOctober 17\u201d made the rounds. Then there is a bit of a color revolution where the color is black clothing and the flag to gather under is never the country\u2019s flag that supports them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then they are also making a revolution against socialist parties in these countries, which is a bit ironic, and also in a high-tax welfare society in the world\u2019s richest countries, so everyone who feels the cause is good, even if it goes a bit wrong, should quickly recalibrate as we said above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now in the coming months, we will see if governments\u2019 responses are sufficient or not; if the will is not there in politics or the judiciary to prosecute, it can quickly get out of control when the masses feel that impunity prevails.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Apparently only students in Belarus, Slovakia, Russia, and Bulgaria do not want to make a revolution and have it good \u2013 can some sensible journalist make that connection soon just like with the forest fires where there was hardly any burning in these countries last summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You haven\u2019t seen steps 2, 3, 4… yet, by the way, we have criminal gangs\u2019 wave of robberies and damn religious ones left besides that the majority society has finally had enough of all the looting and no protection for all the taxes they pay, so they take to the streets. How far it goes is directly linked to how quickly countries crack down on this.<\/p>\n\n\n
Moody’s refrained from downgrading France, which was a fair play \u2013 it would have had immediate effects on the EU area, I guess?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
My mantra \u2013 this was how it was in the 1920s-30s where constant threats of communist revolution drove liberals, centrists, and the right to vote further and further right until we got authoritarian fascist governments instead, and I sincerely hope we don’t get there. As soon as the goalposts move, individual freedom no longer applies and you can shout all you want about your rights, but when the monopoly on violence doesn’t care, you fall silent after a while and hope to survive. And then they can, if they want, move the positions even further \u2013 Europe is absolutely not immune to this even if we think so after many years of peace. Now everyone also owns their homes, and when the Enforcement Authority and the Tax Agency start meddling with them over some fabricated issue, even the loudest will fall silent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As recently as the 1970s, several countries in Europe had military juntas, for example, and communist terror groups murdered politicians or bombed in general.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putin has now taken the negotiations a step further \u2013 Europe must also be pacified. He doesn’t say it outright but that is what he aims for together with Trump. You can be sure that NATO as it was in 1997 is what he wants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We have discussed this countless times, but if there is a ceasefire now, this is our 1938 and Russia is still quite on the defensive and needs a fake victory from Trump not to collapse \u2013 this is an absolute truth that will not change with good intentions or fine words from Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Of all the cheating we’ve seen since 2022 where the US and Europe have helped Russia out of one predicament after another, this would be by far the worst thing that could happen because now Ukraine has the wind in its sails and is causing serious damage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Already in the autumn of 2022, this could have been over because Putin stood with the entire VDV on the western side of the Dnieper in Kherson and Zalizhny planned an attack vector down the eastern bank of the Dnieper into undefended terrain and simply encircle the 28,000-strong VDV who would have had to surrender en masse. Putin called the entire West and threatened with nuclear weapons so Zalizhny was not allowed to save his country from another four years of war. Then Kursk 2023 and finally Kursk 2024, not to mention that UA was forced to attack fortress Tokmak in the summer of 2023. It was then said that “if they get to fight it out maybe they are ready to negotiate afterwards” \u2013 cynical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Europe will not get such a chance again by the way \u2013 we can get Belarus over to us quite easily through democratic elections in the country because the citizens want to join the EU, we can also without much effort give Kaliningrad some kind of deal against full demilitarization and then a new Russia divided into about a dozen new countries so the threat becomes significantly smaller in the future. This is within reach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia is, after all, together with China, the last major brutal colonial powers in the world that have so far managed to avoid being singled out by the various movements otherwise eager about inherited guilt. Why today’s colonized ethnic groups are not the most important to fight for is beyond my understanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine will tie the six surrounding oblasts to itself and then through its link to the EU have trade with them so that the area of success and happiness becomes quite large. As soon as a new strong leader rises in Russia, GUR will be there to liberate him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The alternative is a Russia that feels that a round two might go better because they tricked their way to a 1938. Who will be Chamberlain remains to be seen, I long considered Macron as that candidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is my conviction that very soon the next 70-80 years for Europe will be decided \u2013 will we be the light or hope that everything will just solve itself as long as we don’t move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine has almost had to drag us wildly fencing and screaming to where we are today, we are not the least bit grateful and have taken every chance to slip away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To all happy optimists, I throw in WW1, WW2, the Cold War together with 2014-2022 closely followed by 2022 \u2013 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So far, Europe has done most things wrong, we have also done everything wrong since the Cold War where we have overregulated ourselves totally in the EU with madness before we have even made our green transition. Because how do you think you reduce CO2 emissions without first building what we need for the transition that during construction time causes enormous CO2 emissions?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Instead of becoming a powerhouse that pumps out cheap electricity and builds everything for the union’s 450 million inhabitants, we buy everything from China with higher emissions than if we produced ourselves. This is because we have imposed price-increasing mandates on our own producers but do not have the same requirements on Chinese products so China gets a competitive advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not manufacturing but instead buying everything on credit is rarely a success story and to be able to manufacture products at a reasonable price you need volume, raw materials, and cheap electricity \u2013 only the US and China have that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then we buy security from the US because we have disarmed thinking there is eternal peace but apparently still experience a great threat that no one saw coming. Everyone who saw it coming since 2007 has been accused of warmongering and had their careers destroyed. Researcher Martin Kragh is probably the latest example of character assassination in Sweden?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Or The Great Regiment Death which was a colorful still life in how to permanently eradicate hard-to-learn knowledge and then have to start over from scratch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then we stand there in our completely self-inflicted mess and feel that the best we can do is try to buy peace from Russia by sacrificing Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only reason this transaction has not gone through is that Ukraine flatly refused even though they have had everyone against them and the only times we start to look a bit happier is when things go badly for Ukraine and we think they will give up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That we now in 2025-2026 have started discussing how to get out of this deep hole we have dug for ourselves entirely on our own is at best belated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine stands there trying to get us to choose the light blue and yellow door but we glare angrily at them and do not dare trust that behind it is soothing elevator music and constant early summer \u2013 Johan No.1 can report that it is exactly as bright and beautiful behind that door as Ukraine says it is, a field of sunflowers and dead Russian bastards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There have been some increased controls at airports in Europe without announcement as far as I have read and now there are warnings of a sharp upswing in the Russian hybrid war against us with the focus on the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n