{"id":1239,"date":"2025-05-20T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-20T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-and-the-world-daily-update-may-20-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-25T16:57:48","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T14:57:48","slug":"ukraine-and-the-world-daily-update-may-20-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-and-the-world-daily-update-may-20-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine and the world daily update May 20, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

You are being fooled into thinking that there is movement because all the leaders met in Albania and talked to Trump on the phone. Looked cheerful \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Trump has been a bit too vague in the aftermath of the peace negotiations in Turkey, even for Trump in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And JD Vance has met Zelensky – they seemed to be laughing together this time, surprised that Zelensky didn’t strangle Vance, but that’s how it was.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, Russia has staged our intellectual elite trio and Trump, once again, in the stands, and announced that they will soon come up with a great counterproposal for peace in our time if we just wait a little longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Because there is quite a lot you are not seeing right now – drone swarms from Ukraine, blown-up Russian refineries, knocked-out combined heat and power plants, new attack wedges coming over the northern front, and all that stuff that gets us excited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don’t think it’s very conspiratorial to suggest that our great leaders in the West have asked Ukraine to show some restraint so that Putin will agree to negotiate for eternal peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes – those of you who have read these posts know that Ukraine is getting everything they ask for right now. There are miles-long heavy transport convoys with all imaginable vehicles on their way to Ukraine, so the West is definitely preparing them for offensive operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But UA will also be able to handle these offensive operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the willingness to help is not there with us, so if Ukraine loses the war – then they will likely lose the war without our brigades fighting against the Russian bastards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, Putin planned to test-fire an ICBM to add a little extra threat, but like the last 2-3 times, it went very Russian and nothing happened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Today is May 20th and the middle of September is Zapad25, four months away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s quite obvious that Putin is buying time, isn’t it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, the major summer riots have already started – those that are supposed to keep us fully occupied along with the wave of sabotage and power outages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belgium and France are very lively right now, and all over Europe, exactly all groups will demonstrate for their core issues this summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don’t think Europe is ready, but I hope I’m wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The signals I think we are getting from Ukraine are that they will assist us if things get really bad, so the worst-case scenario of Ukraine becoming passive is unlikely to happen – provided they don’t succeed in assassinating Zelensky, of course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poland will probably face major protests from the presidential election, and in Romania, the loser is warming up and has declared themselves the winner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the fronts, Ukraine is constantly retreating, even if only in meters, but you don’t win wars by retreating, do you?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has now started evacuating the area southeast of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, as well as Lyman, so they expect an offensive in that area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to previous reports, it is a twelve-pointer for RU to take all the terrain east of the Oskil River, and they are now trying to advance in the area north of NW of Toretsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Since there is still great uncertainty regarding the Baltics, why I don’t understand, I summarize the situation –<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-RU is playing peace negotiations but playing for time. They have shown zero interest in negotiating for peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-they have prepared for a summer offensive in Ukraine and have a strategic reserve against the Baltics according to Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Zapad 2025 is in mid-September and will be held in the Baltic Sea area and the northern fleet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-RU is concerned about Russian minorities in the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-RU has declared 25 locations in the Baltic Sea as “enter at your own risk” from this summer onwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-India – China is underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Iran seems to be choosing war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Since the beginning of the year when Trump took office, we have seen a significant global escalation, and one can suspect what lies ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is now quite clear that Trump has changed his mind, but one can also guess what the plan looks like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For China, Russia has always been a “diversionary maneuver,” which Russia does not see itself as at all, of course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China wants Europe unlocked and frozen in Europe if possible, and Russia has tried to influence what they can, they have tried sabotage against our power infrastructure and other sabotage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next step is to open a conflict in Europe that we have to deal with because then 99.9% of our focus will be on that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I also believe that North Korea’s 11th AC is on its way to take up defensive positions along the northern border with Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China seems to have enlisted – Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh against India, and they are currently claiming to be the rightful owners of some border province.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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And a month ago, there was a major exercise against Taiwan where they practiced amphibious landings and targeting all types of objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2025\/03\/31\/china\/china-taiwan-military-drills-hnk-intl<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is also some truth circulating on Twitter that Chinese equipment emerged victorious in the Pakistan – India aerial battle. If true, it should be a positive sign for China to perhaps test their capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In any case, China has a huge number of robots aimed at targets in Taiwan, a presumably good drone weapon from what I can gather, a few thousand aircraft, +700 ships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They also have missile artillery that can surely reach the mainland of Taiwan by many hundreds, and they are attractive because they cannot be fought in the air, even though attempts will be made to strike the platforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They now have some major fleet exercises per month that they will continue with, and at some point, that exercise will turn into a real situation and invasion – the latest exercise involved 70 aircraft and 25 ships or thereabouts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I also believe that China has been early in adopting drone technology, and below is a mothership drone with long-range capabilities that can release 100 autonomous suicide drones, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/asia-pacific\/chinas-drone-carrier-set-for-maiden-flight-in-june\/3572800#:~:text=Jiu%20Tian%20is%20propelled%20by,small%20drones%2C%20including%20kamikaze%20UAVs.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now I was going to go through Taiwan’s defense forces and was a bit surprised<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe self-ruling island nation of Taiwan has approximately 1,000 tanks<\/a> in its arsenal, but many are antiquated vehicles dating back to the Cold War. These include American-made M24 Chaffes, M41 Walker Bulldogs, and M60A3s, as well as the Taiwanese-made CM 11 Brave Tiger tanks\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/blog\/buzz\/taiwan-will-have-a-fleet-of-new-m1-abrams-tanks-by-early-next-year#:~:text=The%20self%2Druling%20island%20nation,CM%2011%20Brave%20Tiger%20tanks.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their F-16s seem to be modernized, they have 1200 coastal missiles, Patriots and Nasams, and seem generally well-equipped with these capabilities, but the number of missiles is not the same as the number of platforms, and when this starts, they will probably have to fire what they have in the tubes before being detected?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.warpowertaiwan.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chinese radar covers the entire island.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is a small island and can only have so many prepared alternative firing positions for its LV, coastal missiles, etc., and China will probably target all three immediately?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And now to the new challenge even for Taiwan –<\/\n\n\n

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Taiwan Military to Procure Four Types of Attack Drones: Official<\/a><\/blockquote>