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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nRussian recruitment seems to have been excellent, with an increase of over 100%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
North Korea has alleviated the material shortage, and China is secretly providing support \u2013 most recently, Ukrainian forces found a couple of Chinese AKMs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And hundreds of Chinese volunteers in addition to the NK soldiers, where the entire command structure of the 11th AC is in Kursk (or was, I don’t know), so it is reasonable to assume that the entire 11th AC had the northern front as their destination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I have long argued that RU would be able to handle a low-intensity war as a forever war but not a high-intensity war, and that if Ukraine could just keep up the pressure, it would become unsustainable for Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly, that is not the case, and Putin has managed a sustained long offensive since the fall of 2023 with no signs of slowing down \u2013 no matter how poorly it goes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The war has been going on long enough for Russia to get organized, that’s the only conclusion, and they can engage in high-intensity combat over time as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They have started at the Southern front, and UA has retreated from Kursk (although I am convinced it was politically motivated \u2013 Trump did not acknowledge it with a word, so it became worthless as a bargaining chip).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Unfortunately, it doesn’t stop there \u2013 RU’s war material production has started somewhat with hundreds of newly produced units per year of various models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This new material likely went to the newly established units against the Baltics and Finland, which are currently two divisions and an army corps fully equipped and trained in 2025 warfare, with the core being veterans from Ukraine who learned the hard way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Baltics are warning about these units, and Europe warns that within a few years, RU will be ready to start major wars with Europe \u2013 far beyond a small beta test in some nature reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And they managed to build this up in the midst of the ongoing war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We laugh ourselves hoarse at all the crutches and T54-55, but evidently, they can handle the situation with that equipment and at the same time build up a fairly substantial offensive reserve that worries the Balts, Finland, Poland, and some countries in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have discussed the upcoming escalation in the fall, so we don’t need to delve deep into that, but in Kaliningrad and Belarus, there will be SECONDARY units and Chinese SOF there for training \u2013 you know, the tripwire that we think we have in the Baltics but that Europe will have to follow to avoid China threatening war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kaliningrad has some kind of autonomous status, and Belarus is neutral, and Trump won’t intervene, so it’s up to Europe to make the tough decisions \u2013 he will probably oppose us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The attack will come towards eastern Baltics to test NATO and Europe’s resolve, and perhaps towards Svalbard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They want to see if NATO and Europe are ready or not, and then there should be unrest in the markets as a result of the attack. I have guessed that the USA wants this, so the risk is shifted to Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have gone through countless times that the best business for Europe is for Ukraine to defeat Russia and make the country turn inward into domestic chaos, and the longer it takes, the higher the risk for Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Today, RU has extensive plans to escalate the war into Europe, and Trump has made a real kickstart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have discussed Europe’s weaknesses since 2022, such as importing too much, and now China is starting to move, but whether they are a threat to us or not is still unknown. Some caution should be exercised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n UA is hitting hard at China, and I’m not clear why \u2013 I guess it’s to appease the USA?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine is under heavy pressure from Trump, who this week wants various answers and a signature for the colonization agreement. UA goes to the media and says they don’t have the mandate to negotiate away the country, but if they agree to a ceasefire and then Europe sends some kind of peacekeeping force, it’s de facto exactly what they’ve done. Possibly an unpopular decision that Trump and Russia will capitalize on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia did not respect previous ceasefires, and then they ignored their own Easter ceasefire or used the time to strengthen themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine has respected both, that we know \u2013 not many refineries knocked out in the last month or how \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n And Kriegsforscher confirmed that his units laid down their weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe has not been able to rise up so far, I think it’s clear, even though everyone is doing just like with the Baltics now and have schedules for several years in such activities that must be completed by this summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Until 2024, Ukraine had two enormous problems \u2013 material and personnel supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the summer of 2024, Zelensky announced that the problem was solved, but it wasn’t, and we read about brigades with only 300 soldiers still defending an area for a whole brigade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And late 2024, the material shortage hit again, and then briefly in 2025. Spring 2023 \u2013 New Year 2023 was a veritable desert walk, and 2024 wasn’t much better even though it started in the fall of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine has been denied the opportunity to fight in a way that they could win in a COMPLETE war \u2013 the examples are endless, and the article in the NYT confirmed our worst fears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump has thrown even more sand into the machinery and hopes for a domestic collapse in Ukraine, I guess, election, humiliate Zelensky, demand resignation, and generally convey that it is Zelensky who is ruining Ukraine. Ukraine is lucky that the opposition is sensible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since 2022, Europe has missed \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Increasing production<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Securing critical war materials<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Providing voluntary recruitment to Ukraine on a large scale through incentives (salary and pension from the home country)<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Being clear enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Stop buying Russian \u2013 oil and LNG for billions of EUR as recently as the end of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Sending the right weapons at the right time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Listening to Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Today in 2025, the shock finally came with Trump, but nonetheless, we have not managed to agree on the difficult issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Today, I understand that troops in Ukraine mean “peacekeeping” without discussing peace in detail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s only Trump’s proposal on the table here about German division.<\/p>\n\n\n\n IF we move towards a ceasefire in Ukraine as currently discussed, then the USA and Russia have won, and Europe has lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And it will only go downhill from there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As usual, hope lies with Ukraine, which has absolutely prepared for offensive operations, and if Trump can be ignored, GUR can really start buzzing around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The drone war, we also know, is deadly even if Trump got rid of it for a month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But Europe MUST start taking its damn responsibility, you can only back off until you hit the wall then you either fight or let yourself be killed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We are months away from a country in the EU, Europe, and NATO being attacked and unfortunately our defense forces are not ready for war in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is UNBELIEVABLE to me that Ukrainian instructors are not present throughout the EU teaching us about war in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What could happen here unfortunately is that RU launches an offensive and takes a few miles into the Baltics and then goes on the defensive, and how Europe plans to retake that land is unclear and above all \u2013 is it possible?<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the worst case, it will be a re-run of Ukraine’s spring offensive in 2023 and then we will be terrified and cowed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The trick is presumably to ensure that the Russian bastards do not come many meters over the border because there are deep minefields there and about 30 brigades from Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But now today, a few months before the presumed Russian offensive, there are no minefields and no brigades in the area…<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now you finally have the chance to show appreciation to MXT and his work on the website and then the daily (well…) yellow posts – IT has installed a donation button on johanno1.se, if you look around a bit you will see a QR code.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is also a donation page for Ukraine on johanno1.se with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack – there is still a chance to follow and become a paying subscriber if it feels more right to go that route which some have done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n