So, this was long before Trump started messing up with trade tariffs, and below you have FOX speculating on the purpose of the punitive tariffs, with a news anchor speculating freely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
IF this is what comes out of the White House, unfortunately, I think they are deceiving themselves; China has higher resilience than that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump has just announced what we guessed he would do a little over a week ago – “if you want to trade with the US, you must freeze out China.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n The problem here is that China has already begun to identify the friends who betray – Australia sells beef when China stops American beef, Brazil sells soybeans when the US cannot sell soybeans, and so on, all the way to Spain, where the first cracks in the EU facade are already showing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Let’s rewind the tape significantly –<\/p>\n\n\n\n USA did a Spain, but instead of gold, it’s selling debt that corrupted them. When Spain found unlimited gold in South America, the country completely stopped its production of everything – they just bought everything they needed on the world market instead. In the long run, it was this brilliant move that collapsed the country and made it the Spain we know today – ma\u00f1ana and outdated tapas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Netherlands actually collapsed when their trading company was mismanaged, I think the major earthquake played a role in Portugal, and the UK supported the US during WW2 – we’ve been through that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n (another rewind – for those who think you can mismanage things, like shutting down a lot of electricity production and other fun stuff – look at the USA, how a number of bad decisions immediately had huge consequences – there is a real world to deal with. Or Brexit).<\/p>\n\n\n\n USA has sold debt and buys everything with the world currency USD – they have shut down manufacturing, and everything is outsourced to other countries for a good price for the customer (very simplified, I know).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Companies have prioritized large and quick profits over having know-how and production within the country, which is good for national security and citizens. Maybe we can’t blame China for that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The quick-witted realize that this not only applies to the USA but that we have done the same in many countries in the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There has been no shortage of warnings over the years, and during COVID, everyone realized that sea shipments from China are just a trade blockade away from being stopped, and then there will be no pre-cut beef that was raised in Norway, slaughtered in Romania, but was supposed to be sliced in Finland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But now it’s 2025, and the USA and Europe import 100% of various key components and raw materials from China. And the rest of the world’s reserves are in countries that China or Russia control because we have withdrawn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA has perhaps managed slightly better than the EU, but we live under the belief that Europe is not in dire straits, only the USA – and then I think we are grossly mistaken. If the world smells blood, they will go on the offensive because nothing would be more attractive than making changes to the current world order that has been in place for hundreds of years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But is it really so because upset by Trump, China has now stopped the export of rare earth metals and magnets (you had to google that, but China controls 70-90% of the magnets) to the whole world, including Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Will complicate our defense industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A somewhat conspiratorial thought is that China allowed the Ukraine war to deplete the West of important raw materials before imposing an export ban?<\/p>\n\n\n\n You may remember someone who writes long posts and has long been talking about the longer the war goes on, the higher the risk for Europe, and I think it still holds up \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n Google is not clear on whether China has already limited\/semi-strangled its export of nitrocellulose to Europe, but if nothing else, it will probably soon be on China’s list for export bans. It seems that European countries feel they have not been able to buy enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n You also understand that all of this has a lead time, and then production will also start in Europe and the USA. How long that will take, who knows, but nitrocellulose is not impossible to produce at all, and some European producers already exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Like Putin’s gas weapons – once fired, they only have value for a year or two, a window that you either exploit or let pass by.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In fact, Ukraine recently had an acute shortage of nitrocellulose, but Finland managed to alleviate that shortage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Back to the USA, the number of Chinese citizens arrested at the southern border has skyrocketed in recent years, I saw recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then a farmer complained that there are 4 major “meat processing plants” operators in the USA, two of which are Chinese and one Brazilian of the four, controlling 85% of the market in total. So, from mooing cow to delicious beef steak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China has just stopped two of the largest American soybean exporters from doing business in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And no more American beef for the Chinese.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What the USA believes it has is the ability to potentially economically collapse China, but Trump’s first attempt ended with him learning that China also holds another type of nuclear weapon – the US national debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We went through that last week and don’t need to delve into it again because everyone reads the posts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So far, China has succeeded well in dividing the West thanks to Trump’s ravages – Australia is very happy that they can now sell meat to China, and as anyone who has done a group project in school knows, some always switch sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is also a somewhat fantastically large Chinese influence operation underway now about who produces what and buying directly from China at 30% of the price but with the same quality you have in stores in your home country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Make Piracy Legal Again – this should probably not be underestimated because the design is owned by fashion houses, and China is now selling to anyone with a thousand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is presumably something more behind this, and if one can crash the fashion houses, maybe one can trigger an economic downturn in Europe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/twitter.com\/tanyajunghans\/status\/1911307477162905604?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n We have three actors in play here; Russia, the USA, and China, all vying for a top position, preferably 1st place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Putin already started in 2007 with his infamous speech, and the USA before that with the Iraq War. Iraq was a strategic ally for Russia, and they were not entirely satisfied in 2003.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One must be careful and remember that one person’s freedom fighter is another person’s terrorist, but for Russia, the situation became critical as more countries joined NATO in Eastern Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In 2011, there were massive protests in Russia against Putin, which he believed were instigated by the USA \u2013 as they say, it takes one to know one, perhaps some would say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia’s red line was probably always Ukraine, and even though the USA had nothing to do with Yanukovych’s fall, as it was about an EU free trade agreement, Putin probably believed so, and that’s what quickly led to Crimea in 2014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Consistently, the USA and Europe have given Putin a free pass, motivating him to continue, but China is also sitting on the sidelines watching.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s no secret that the USA wants an ally in Russia against China, and since February 24, 2022, this has been put to the test \u2013 the USA refuses to let Russia collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We can reasonably assume that the USA wants a controllable Europe during a cold war with Russia. We left this behind in 1989 (or 1991, if you prefer…) and the USA had its best years during the Cold War.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Or at the very least, they don’t care the least bit that a collapsed Russia would probably be better for us in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China also has power ambitions, they are just infinitely patient, but now they have at least reached the point where they are ready to fight \u2013 they do not back down from the USA, as Trump has now learned the hard way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But…<\/p>\n\n\n\n If the USA fires its shots at China and realizes they have bitten off more than they can chew \u2013 who are their natural allies then?<\/p>\n\n\n\n You guessed it right \u2013 the rest of the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And how should this mess be solved \u2013 well, by quickly getting Europe to win against Russia so that we can collectively focus on China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But we are very far from that point yet, and I am still not convinced that Trump is not playing a double game directly with Russia or that the USA has any hidden agendas still \u2013 I will address this in a post later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What I have always seen with the USA is that they rally their allies against the next threat, which would now be China, but this time the USA is not following that pattern, a deviation from what we recognize as the norm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Last week was a total disaster in strategic communication from the EU \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Poland’s Dzjuda states that the only reasonable path to peace for Ukraine is through Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Kaja Kallas announces that the coalition of the willing meeting went poorly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Germany’s upcoming Merz says that the EU will only be considered once the war is over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Not far from the catastrophic NATO meeting in 2023 or Zelensky’s humiliating trip to the USA in September 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA’s proposed peace plan is actually a partition of Ukraine where RU gets four provinces, of which UA still controls a significant amount of land \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n And then the EU has approached China to make it easier for them to export electric cars to us, but it seems we are not getting anything in return. The quid pro quo could have been “convince Putin to leave Ukraine”?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe has NOT delivered what they should have, and the clock is ticking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Next, what could happen is that China intervenes in the Ukraine war to humiliate Trump, or to further pressure Europe. North Korea had no consequences, so the door is open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What we can establish, however, is that the pressure cooker is heating up, even if everyone laughs at Trump \u2013 China has made several concerning moves lately, and the risk of the situation spiraling out of control increases the longer it goes on, and eventually, no current head of state can control this \u2013 this is how a world war begins, in case anyone was wondering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Let’s rewind \u2013 Russia had its German post-WW1 trauma after 1991, and the invasion of Ukraine is comparable to Poland in 1939.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Putin has diligently imprisoned and eliminated internal opposition and criticism against him, which was extensive as recently as 2011, so he has the country under tight control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We know that Putin intends to continue \u2013 partly because they have told us so, but also because we see the preparations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So IF Europe manages to break Russia’s back in Ukraine, Russia will collapse \u2013 they will turn inwards 100% and disintegrate into about ten new countries. If this does not happen, Russia will continue until it reaches a breaking point \u2013 it’s up to Europe to decide how we want it to go, actually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Everyone always says that the next step won’t happen, but we have already had February 2022, the Houthis firing rockets at hundreds of ships, and October 7 culminating in Syria falling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then an extreme wave of Russian sabotage in Europe, such as cutting undersea cables and Estonia and Finland seizing RU ships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And of course, Trump’s antics, which have surprised some in their intensity \u2013 at least they surprised me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And before that, we were sitting at home wearing face masks because China released COVID by persuading (bribing) the WHO not to isolate China before it became a global spread. If you remember, the WHO recommended keeping airports in China open until it spread, and then they realized it was airborne and closed all airports worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the pipeline, we have Zapad 25, which is five months away, and the USA, Russia, and China all have power ambitions and have been increasing pressure on each other gradually in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have had two world wars before and just emerged from a cold war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Netherlands is right to increase readiness, and you will see more countries in Europe doing the same \u2013 even though everyone talks about sitting still, many countries are not taking any chances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But…, and yes, I am most interested in the EU here actually, some tough decisions must be made very soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If we do nothing more than what we have done today, the likelihood is probably closer to 1 that RU will escalate by the time of Zapad. They could also do the “unexpected” and strike the Baltics already during the preparations for Zapad months before, on June 23-24, for example \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n Or they might wait until early autumn just before the weather worsens and make their move so that our counteraction also has bad weather to contend with, who knows \u2013 but we must plan for both scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yes, our politicians have a reality to deal with in a completely different way than we do sitting in front of the computer, but inaction now leads to death, and it’s time to wake up from the slumber.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Some countries, like Finland, have already sorted out their domestic issues, gotten rid of weak leaders, and acquired strong leaders in tough times, like with Stubb, but what no one has yet managed to bridge is the larger European cooperation, and that is currently faltering significantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Baltic States are still testing which bunker model would be best, and no country has yet mined the border – with an expected conflict only months away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Finland began building its defensive lines against Russia long before the Winter War in 1939 – a year before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Immediately after Ukraine’s blitz offensive in Kharkov 2022, Russia began building the Surovikin Line, which resisted the UA offensive in the spring of 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Poland will demand help from the EU and must protect against the Kaliningrad and Belarus borders, and they would like to see Lithuania defended – and Poland is a strong voice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Finland is busy defending its land border, so it will be fortified in Southeast Estonia in a few months, which is incredibly unfortunate as they are centering their defense around the northern part of the country and Latvia in the southern part of their land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A small open wound in Ukraine has worked out just fine, so why not try it with the EU?<\/p>\n\n\n\n That’s how it looks and the weeks go by…<\/p>\n\n\n\n By the way, China has started its anti-drone training in soldier education, do you think the Baltic States have come that far?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Because if there’s one thing RU has learned now, it’s drone warfare in 2025 – they’ve learned the hard way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1911130066827755586?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s hard to escape the fact that China is biding its time here and has made several successful moves recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There was also a massive military exercise against Taiwan recently, and they have built their own Mulberry harbors floating in some port in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I also have a thought that has zero support, and that is, did Trump’s move come too late?<\/p>\n\n\n\n If he had acted as he does now back on February 24, 2022, this would probably look radically different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yes, he has made a strong start since January 20, but perhaps the window of time was already closed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n If he had pulled the rug out from under Ukraine in 2022, maybe they wouldn’t have made it, and Europe would already be in a cold war?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Just a thought, but that didn’t happen, and historians will have something to argue about, but maybe that’s why he fought so much about the election loss – because history left him behind?<\/p>\n\n\n\n USA, China, and Russia have one thing in common (everything else they are at odds about) – that the EU does not become too strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Europe becomes too strong, all three have bitter experiences of what we used to do back then, but probably it’s more because if we sort ourselves out internally, we are a natural force that will take over the planet if we want<\/p>\n\n\n\n – don’t awaken the European lion because if we catch a whiff of opportunity, it could get lively. One should not make the mistake of thinking we are weak with the hindsight of two world wars, as we fought each other back then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now we are united in a union, have reasonable consensus, and some of the world’s strongest countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nothing unites better than a war, and that is probably the concern the USA has, that we will unite completely now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n We want Ukraine in the EU, we need their defense, industries, raw materials, and knowledge of war – they will be a strong ally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n History has always been about war, and what we may be heading towards doesn’t deviate much from the timeline. We have only had 30 years of peace, and newer generations have forgotten what it’s like to live under the wet blanket of conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels,<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you want a fun comment section – johanno1.se, highest level of comments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack – there is still a chance to become paying subscribers even for those who already follow, there is a lot of work behind it so thank you to those who see it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbdbe66b5-44d7-485f-a2bc-ca2565f83ee9_828x1185.png\")
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