{"id":1341,"date":"2025-04-16T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-april-16-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-25T17:10:04","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T15:10:04","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-april-16-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-april-16-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update April 16, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Now let’s return to UA’s upcoming offensive, even though the Russian bastards seem to be increasing the pressure right now and also want to get serious in Zaporizhia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has formed units to handle breakthroughs of the minefields and fortifications – there are several now. Presumably, they have received all demining vehicles and other equipment and are being brought to breakthrough locations. Once the breakthrough is achieved, they move on to the next location – efficiently utilizing resources. We also know that they excel at their job with gold stars, and there are many breakthroughs at the northern front. The minefields there are significant and require weeks of preparation before the mechanized battalions can roll through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Johan\u2019s Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And now the storm brigade concept is spreading exponentially, it seems the units are mostly everywhere now, and NG is supposed to establish two army corps where the corps commanders are former Azov leaders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I recall Zelensky also said at some point that Ukraine has 100 brigades in combat and at a high level, or something similar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The total number of brigades is probably closer to 150, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(compare that to any country in Europe that has 2-3 brigades and thinks it’s enough).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I guess a tank is at least a battalion resource today, and 4km snipers, but most of the maneuver brigades have been mechanized because an immense amount of splinter protection has been delivered during the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The backbone is the infantry with splinter protection supported by drones at a low level, artillery, and CAS at a higher level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There probably isn’t a unit in the army anymore with a little pride that doesn’t have its own drones, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

80-85% of RU losses are caused by drones now, I think we’ve heard, and then UA drops a lot of JDAMS and has no shortage of artillery at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The workshops should be functioning well today so UA can recover much of what has been damaged, but it has been a long time since they captured a lot of Russian equipment. Crutches and horses aren’t worth much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UA has essentially been on the defensive since Kursk and should have received a lot back from the workshops by now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

North of Kupiansk on the western side of Oskil, UA has brought forward a large number of brigades, and RU has Oskil at their back, so it could get really bloody there with a little luck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

After Kursk was partially concluded (they are still in Russia in several places in Kursk and Belgorod, and no prize for guessing that they are in dominant terrain), Ukraine now has quite a bit of redundancy available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We haven’t heard anything about the 11th AC from North Korea, and in 2024, the information we received was that the entire staff had been moved to Kursk. Then UA actually fought higher staffs in Kursk, including the coordination staff with the North Koreans, and we have the name of the liberated NK general. They also lost quite a few of the 12,000+ 1,500 SOF they sent there to learn how to fight, so hopefully Rocket Man has reined in his claws maybe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In any case, the 11th AC will come and take up defensive positions at the northern border, freeing up corresponding RU units, and that army corps is still over 60,000 strong, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smart warfare is what they are doing now – finding weak areas in Kursk and Belgorod, and hopefully Bryansk as well, and conducting raids with a battalion or brigade under a devastating drone umbrella.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hopefully, we’ll see more of that the less Trump interferes. Which, in a way, he doesn’t seem to be doing right now, as now it’s time to broker peace again \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If UA can withstand the upcoming offensive in northern Luhansk, maybe they have an opportunity to strike there in the future?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then the question is, what do RU defense lines look like between Lyman down to the southern front – Volnovakha (you understand what I mean) because it wasn’t part of the Surovikin line and has moved forward from the ATO line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Pokrovsk, RU maintenance is extremely inadequate – they have a few roads that are like a deadly gauntlet and have started neglecting maintenance with FPV drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s clear that the artillery has been pinpointed, and UA has carried out local offensives to regain dominant terrain, starting around February 6 this year, and RU artillery losses are astronomical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now it’s mud season, and Trump is still at it, but at some point, the ground will give way, and UA + Europe will have a decision to make. Europe seems to be struggling to get out of the starting blocks, but knowing Ukraine, we know they are preparing to reclaim their land if they can because they have had a grand offensive plan throughout the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next year, anything could have happened, right? We know what RU is planning, and we have seen Trump being Trump, so no one knows what will happen in 2026. Nor do we know how the situation with China will develop, except that they are now ready to fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year, Ukraine has a fighting chance, and they should take it – the situation will not look better in 2026, and especially if RU has managed to build up a strategic offensive reserve as the Baltics claim, and Ukraine claims, time is no longer a reducing factor for RU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine now produces 40% of its equipment domestically, and we know it’s also high-tech heavy equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3981518-over-40-of-ukraines-defense-forces-weaponry-now-domestically-produced-budanov.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And apparently, RU has lost 140,000 soldiers since the turn of the year, incredibly good news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3981299-russian-army-has-lost-140650-troops-since-start-of-2025-syrskyi.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I usually write that RU has held back modern heavy equipment or something – I suspect that on May 9th, we will get a receipt for that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You know, having read these posts, that this summer or early autumn, things will explode unless Europe starts fortifying the border against the barbarians in earnest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Victory Parade Rehearsals in Yekaterinburg, featuring the latest modifications of T-72B3M, T-80BVM, T-90M with all the bells and whistles.
Along with other equipment, like a 100mm MT-12 Field gun, 152mm 2A36 Giatsint-B, 120mm 2S23 Nona-SVK, BM-30 Smerch, and alot of other\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/WmxHQ9xBd0<\/a><\/p>— T-90K (@T_90AK) April 14, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote>