We can also reasonably assume that the USA will not participate much, so we in Europe must take the lead. I’m pretty sure that the USA will not assist in any land grabs as long as Trump is president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As mentioned earlier, the area in southeastern Estonia is at stake, a nature reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Estonia’s defense forces focus on the northern part of the border with Russia because Tallinn is located there, and if I may guess, Latvia probably likes Daugava for its last stand since both Riga and Daugavpils are on that axis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The purpose is not to invade the Baltics or engage in full-scale war against the West – the purpose is probably to test NATO and create uncertainty in our EU markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For Putin, the highest cost (at the moment) would be if his AC and two divisions were defeated and had to limp back to Russia – Europe won’t retaliate more militarily, and economically, we’ve probably fired most of our shots now that we’re boarding ships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The campaign will be preceded and followed by absolutely absurd subversive activities – both influence and direct sabotage where nothing can be traced back to Russia as usual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Swedish Peace will once again issue their recent recommendation not to resist the invasion, but when invaded, then turn the road signs around (posted the recent interview a week ago, right?).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gandhi was probably lucky to stand up against the British and not Russia, but that’s another story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Where China stands in all of this is anyone’s guess – yes, we can assume that they have aversion towards the USA, but China always does what’s best for China, and maybe they don’t mind if the EU has even more problems?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China and Russia have control over most countries in Africa that have rare earth metals and other resources that we would need in Europe, with China accounting for 70% of production, the US for 13%, and Russia and China controlling old -places with rare earth metals – while the EU imports 100%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The EU also imports a key component for ammunition charges for almost 100%, if I remember correctly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Not to mention the oil imports, and then we import all our Boron from Turkey (check what it’s needed for).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Everyone knows that if you forget salt or sugar for a cake, no one will eat it for dessert at home and say they are very full after the super delicious overcooked pasta and lukewarm tomato sauce \ud83d\ude2d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The same goes for everything we produce, if you remove one component, there will be no finished product.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So – we manufacture Caesar and 155mm, but for it to be able to shoot, 155mm ammunition is needed, and nitrocellulose is almost 100% controlled by China, which is for the propellant in the grenade?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Google suggests that China, Turkey, the USA, and Germany produce it, but that weapons-grade material largely comes from China for us in the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now, after three years of war in Ukraine, we also do not have huge stocks of ammunition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So… if China stops all exports of Nitrocellulose, there will be no shots fired from the Caesar howitzer, and then a production stop for a year before everything returns to normal with a lot of luck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine is in acute shortage, but apparently, Finland can help – Finland has not shut down everything to save the world like the rest of us have.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So far, we in the West have had free rein to act like this towards Russia, but we probably shouldn’t think that it can’t be done to us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The reason why we import everything possible and have hardly any domestic production is that the fight against self-defense capabilities has been fought very broadly – here it is the environmental court that puts obstacles in the way, for example, for Nammo until 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
https:\/\/www.svt.se\/nyheter\/lokalt\/vast\/nammo-i-karlsborg-far-nej-om-villkor-for-nytt-sprangamne<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n I have tried to figure out why we do not manufacture nitrocellulose (gun cotton?) but have not made much progress. Considering that we are Nobel and what he did, I find it a bit strange?<\/p>\n\n\n\n If I were to guess, it has to do with environmental laws and laws on explosive materials, and that along the way, it has been eliminated?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yes, I find it strange that in the name of the environment and animals, we always manage to hit things that really sting – like power generation and the ability to defend oneself, for example. But we still have Kosher or Halal slaughter because animals can be stunned, and if it is done, no one checks, but if the animal is to be slaughtered according to the right routine, it must not be stunned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Or like this, and now it gets messy – according to the Swedish Board of Agriculture, Kosher slaughter is not allowed, but Halal slaughter is allowed if the animal is stunned. The slaughter methods are exactly the same, and no one cares about stunning?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Here we must give the Green Party credit for at least trying to raise the issue – see MXT, I am honest \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.riksdagen.se\/sv\/dokument-och-lagar\/dokument\/motion\/slakt-genom-skaktning_gm02mj516<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n And then on to this huge discussion about our hunting weapons and recreational shooters, who significantly enhance defense capabilities – they are very valuable but apparently should be removed in times of unrest like this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time, the deadly violence from criminal gangs that is on the rise is considered a bit tough. Probably not far off either with those who pose a threat to national security since foreign powers have direct contact and are already placing orders with them – what do you think if the same effort was put into trying to disarm criminal gangs and clans as with sports shooters and hunters?<\/p>\n\n\n\n One rejoices at the small Ukrainian counterattacks, otherwise it is mostly Russian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At Kupiansk, RU has now crossed Oskil broadly and is digging westward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What is popularly called Lyman is the area south of there, and according to Twitter rumors, RU is supposed to increase the offensive there in that area. Taking all the terrain east of Oskil is probably a high priority to have a stable anchor in the northern flank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n RU has taken Toretsk from UA again to a large extent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Pokrovsk, RU is trying to secure the last supply route, but the ground will soon give way, and in the area, UA has carried out surgical Russian-killer attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And at the Southern front, the Russian offensive seems to have started, but no major achievements directly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As I sit and piece together the puzzle, I have a small thought that Ukraine has something big in the works. I don’t know if they want to wait out Trump or if it’s the weather that will decide, but it will be tough to be Russian in Ukraine not too long from now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s not just Dengamle who has radio silence, and we have gone through the equipment and other items that have been delivered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, I do not have a sufficiently good understanding of the red side – at the same time, they are struggling a lot and crawling over the fields on crutches with hardly any heavy vehicles, and the number of fired artillery shells is low, but according to everyone, they have set up significant offensive strategic reserves and recruitment is said to be far above the target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Of course, it also matters where these offensive strategic reserves are headed, but UA should have full control over them and combat all the bases now, which we do not receive information about?<\/p>\n\n\n\n There are hundreds of vehicles in assembly areas, ammunition depots, and barracks in bases around western Russia – all of which should be high-priority targets, one would think, and Ukraine has no shortage of drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Either it is an influence operation from UA and our intelligence services to breathe life into our half-dead politicians, or RU is also starting a seriously intended summer offensive – unclear to me at least \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n What I do believe is important is that UA does not launch a spring offensive again in 2023 because the country is not that resilient, but it is this year that UA has managed to knock down that whack-a-mole, and the stacks are in the right place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russian capabilities such as heavy vehicles, FAB, drones, and artillery have been severely suppressed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time, they have raised their own stacks like FAB, drones, frontline aircraft, heavy vehicles, and the ability to break through fortification lines. Then they solve the personnel supply by letting units from Europe take up defensive positions west of the Dnieper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A lot of mine-clearing vehicles were delivered again last fall, if I remember correctly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then we have the capability for night combat, and the RU strategic reserve may have it a bit better, but if you attack on crutches, you certainly don’t have batteries for the night vision goggles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukrainian brigades have targeting devices in their heavy vehicles, but night vision goggles and targeting devices for personal weapons are in huge quantities, so they can absolutely conduct night combat, and if you have ever participated in such an exercise, the advantage is monumental when fighting against units that lack it.<\/p>\n\n\n The number of vehicles for amphibious combat must be closer to 300 now, and a considerable amount of helicopters have also been received.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I don’t think Europe will allow itself to be talked down by the USA as in 2022 – 2024. We might actually be grateful for Trump and the spell was broken because Biden had a better ability to keep us in check – now Europe has clearly taken off on its own, especially regarding the Ukraine war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It can’t be easy to be Trump – “I want Europe to solve this on their own” and then of course he hopes that we will crash and then we go and do exactly as he says. The same with oil prices and arms sales – now he wants us to buy American-made again when he said we couldn’t before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA has had the ability to exert far too much control, so maybe we should let Trump enjoy his stock gains and those gold basketball shoes he sells and thank him for the boost?<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you liked the post, please share it on your channels,<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you want a fun comment section – johanno1.se, high level of comments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack – now for heaven’s sake, don’t forget to become paying subscribers even those of you who already follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3d6aa4a0-0cee-4fb1-87ee-4c60de8fba08_932x910.png\")
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