Now I have learned that it was Japan (and according to the thread on johanno1.se, maybe even just institutions) that couldn’t handle Trump’s antics and they were also the reason Trump backed down. Japan holds 10% of 24% of US debt, and when some of it was sold, the bond market risked going up in flames, forcing Trump to back down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We wrote a while ago that this kind of escalation always has too many unknown outcomes, and this must have been absolutely optimal – that it was Japan in some form?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Trump was forced to end his crusade for all power to the USA right after someone holding 2.4% of their debt started selling a little bit, then Trump doesn’t have much freedom of action from now on \ud83d\ude01<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now onto the next step \u2013 if you remember, we usually say that what China chooses to do will determine whether we enter a global conflict or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump has kept the sky-high tariffs against them, as well as the extra fees for packages and port calls \u2013 along with quite a few direct insults. He clarified yesterday that there are 145% tariffs against China, and the US stock markets plummeted again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So, by definition, the trade war is still fully underway even though everyone has taken a breather and started to relax.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And today is also Friday happy hour around 6:00:01, so I will have several drinks and relax on johanno1.se, which you should do too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I’m just saying, don’t miss out, as Ray Liotta is joining today and will chug a bottle of beer on live camera and take two snus \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After Japan, it’s China that holds a mountain of USD, and they haven’t exactly received a receipt confirming that the pile has value \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At least they seem to have come out in the media and said that they will take this fight straight into it (Chinese) tiles, they won’t back down an inch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Because if China starts selling, then whoever it was in Japan will be forced to sell, and then it’s on again, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And everyone now knows how sensitive the bond market was, and how sensitive it is for Trump that he hesitates?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If I believe that the US planned to take an initial hit and then transfer the risk to others, then the same must apply to China as well, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They showed during COVID that they think exactly like that, and if they have been shaken on the lower deck by all of this (which we don’t know), it would be smart business to bring the US down with them, wouldn’t it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Have we returned to the old delightful game of TERROR BALANCE, but where thermonuclear nuclear weapons have been replaced by those who hold US national debt and vice versa?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In any case, the EU shouldn’t be shedding tears over its fate that China and the US will annihilate each other, even if there are ripple effects from it \u2013 they say never miss out on a good crisis, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I have long had the idea that the next world war will be fought in Asia \u2013 maybe it was Nostradamus who told Dengamle, who revealed it to me while drunk on some early Monday morning?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now onto the next sore spot, Russia \u2013 they want to collapse the EU economically to prevent us from supporting Ukraine, just as we are trying to collapse them economically so that they tire of waging a war of extermination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia can’t do much beyond the gas weapon and sabotage, other than creating a black swan in the form of a direct act of war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump has “paused tariffs for 90 days,” which in reality means that his tariff war is presumably over?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Who believes that in 90 days he will restart everything, Japan will start selling again, the bond market will shake, and he will have to back down again and declare a new victory?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A large part of Trump’s escalation for 2025 is thus eliminated, maybe Iran remains, but the question is whether he wants to start it when the amplifier has collapsed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That leaves RU’s own escalation, which is S\u00d6 Estonia and\/or maybe Svalbard \u2013 but the value or multiplier of that escalation only applies if Trump simultaneously applies pressure from his side, which he no longer does \u2013 because then the bond market in the US crashes \ud83d\ude01<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Ukraine can start ramping up its offensive operations seriously, it would have another cooling effect on Putin’s Estonian campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Before I switched to Trump, we used to say that this war will be decided in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine had plans for a violent offensive in 2024, but the USA stopped it as usual, I thought they might strike during 2024, but of course that didn’t happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Just because Ukraine has been lying low doesn’t mean they need to stay low \u2013 the deliveries of offensive equipment have been absolutely massive since the fall of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now, the “peace plan” must logically be like a dried and salted herring fin in gray water?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No one really believes that Trump will bother to mediate peace in Ukraine beyond his smash-and-grab attempt, which was bolder than what Putin attempted, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To move forward in the chain of events negative for the USA and Russia, Ukraine needs to increase the pressure because they are the only ones who can directly reach Russia with force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And you don’t increase pressure by not bombing anything and not going on the offensive \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Which then leads us to the conclusion that Ukraine’s drone mats will spread over Russia, and they will continue offensive ground operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Because now the EU presumably wants the same as Ukraine, and the US’s inhibiting effect has been rounded thanks to Trump making a total fool of himself in front of everyone \u2013 the art of the deal turned into pump-and-dump of the US stock market and gross market manipulation \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now there are warnings of a Russian offensive from several directions, Ukraine has left Kursk, RU is preparing 150,000 troops for its Baltic operation according to Ukraine \u2013 IF all of this is true, RU has managed to build up offensive capacity right in the middle of their own offensive, and it has been an offensive where they have crawled forward everywhere for an extremely long time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I was pretty sure that RU would hit a low point after Trump took office \u2013 and that Putin needed a ceasefire, but that doesn’t seem to be the case, and it surprises me a little. The only ones really warning about RU’s offensive capacity in the near future are Ukraine, others talk about at least 2-3 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then there are warnings that RU will deploy 600,000 troops against Finland and the Baltics, but apparently that requires peace and quiet in Ukraine for that rearrangement to be realized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So it’s time for the EU to take this seriously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The latest UA offensive operations since February 6 have felt a bit like Rourke’s Drift 2025 (so you have to replace some of the characters) \u2013 composite Ukrainian battalion groups cutting through areas where several Russian brigades are supposed to be on defense on paper, with task forces behind them from tank brigades and elite units like Spetsnaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In spring 2023, their offensive operations were met with resistance that caused them to get stuck and start taking losses \u2013 Ahkp, FAB, drones hammered them, they got caught in minefields, and even though they suffered proportionally fewer losses, they made it through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now it is my clear opinion that they lay drone cover and EW everywhere and then clean up in the target area by defeating the red with relatively small losses. Mirage is lurking in the background, and this way they can probably continue for a long time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We know from before that UA has learned to break through the defense lines, but here you have film evidence at least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n