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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nThen they stopped exporting “rare earth materials” to the whole world, and China holds 69% of the world market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia had some as well but has stopped exporting, so I can’t figure out what the export shortfall was\/is from them, but they can still easily export it to China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So what does this mean for the USA and EU in terms of getting critical raw materials for our production?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our green technology, electric cars, computers, phones, components, etc., we can’t build – if we were to want to build such things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our defense production maybe as we try to ramp up \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n So all of you who thought the world would immediately rally around the USA and unite against them – what did China just do, well they struck against the whole world?<\/p>\n\n\n\n What has Trump (USA!!) been doing in the past few months?<\/p>\n\n\n They have, in any case, intended to significantly increase the production of rare earth minerals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.metaltechnews.com\/story\/2025\/03\/26\/tech-metals\/trump-orders-us-critical-mineral-supplies\/2197.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n And you, like me, have read about how the USA is planning to cut down old-growth forests, increase coal-fired energy, and so on \u2013 but what is it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Well, it’s about securing domestic access to raw materials for domestic production when the world market freezes in a trade war \u2013 which the USA initiated, those bastards \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n\n And all these steps were taken several months ago \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2025\/mar\/03\/trump-national-forest-executive-order<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n What steps has the EU just taken besides the fact that we have to import 100% of our rare earth minerals that we need?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Well, we would start by preserving forests, closing agricultural land, and we have certainly had a debate in Sweden where “a certain party” has strongly advocated against mining our own domestic rare earth minerals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have very few of our own raw materials in the EU, and some weapons made of fossil-free steel will definitely not be one, that’s where I’d put my money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Apparently, we import 99% of the Boron we need from Turkey \u2013 you can Google for yourselves what can no longer be produced if Turkey decides to stop exporting it to us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is the current plan of the EU \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n A bit inadequate when 100% of our import of rare earth minerals disappeared overnight \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n Will the EU and China quickly find a balance and cooperate against the USA – probably not, as the EU is currently planning to impose tariffs against China so that we are not flooded with what they can no longer export to the USA \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n (the article is actually a few days old, like a bad joke, and even a Chinese person can surely Google).<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/my-europe\/2025\/04\/04\/commission-watching-for-chinese-steel-and-electronics-imports-amid-trade-war<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n This has escalated extremely quickly, and the fact that the EU is currently “sitting still and waiting” while we have done everything in our power to not strengthen our own domestic industry now that world trade is about to freeze is our own fault, no one else’s, mostly the Green Party of course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But the rest is actually the fault of the USA and Trump, and Trump is neither a babbling idiot nor a heaven-sent genius playing 5D chess to make the world a better place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -The USA wants to try to clip China’s wings before they become too strong \u2013 that’s common knowledge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -We also know since 2022 that the USA wants a Russia that has not collapsed, and that is very bad for the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Then we can now reasonably assume that the USA wants to bring Europe back into a cold war that will also involve China. During the Cold War, the USA had its best years ever \u2013 maybe they want to return to that and have their second-best years?<\/p>\n\n\n\n -I don’t think the USA wants a full-scale global war, but the most difficult thing about wars is that they spiral out of control as soon as they start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It probably wasn’t on many people’s bingo card on January 19th that the USA would take over the baton from Russia and increase the global pressure cooker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I thought it couldn’t get worse than Biden’s Ukraine policy, and then Trump would slowly poison the USA internally over 4 years, and we could laugh at all the craziness that didn’t affect us \u2013 and it would also give the EU significant advantages. To lead us towards a full-scale world war in two months is quite an achievement, absolute cynicism \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n\n I remember my discussions from 2022 that the EU should quickly establish strategic partnerships in Africa and give them fair trade agreements \u2013 do you think it was perhaps because we would end up at this point?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now I also understand that good advice is never heeded, but when China controlled 69% of the world’s rare earth material exports, and together with the USA and Russia almost all of it, securing countries in Africa becomes almost a matter of survival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is something we should have done years ago, but do you know who has taken over Africa (or you do if you’ve read the posts) RU and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA is preparing for war, they have been stingy with direct military support to UA and Europe because they knew it would escalate \u2013 because they intended to drive it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They have secured raw materials, they have production capacity, and they have eliminated Russia’s threatening arsenal. Perhaps the USA didn’t want Europe to be completely overrun by Russia, but at most, it becomes a cold war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China still does not have anything close to what the USA has in terms of military equipment today \u2013 China is NOT prepared for war today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA is simply ready for a global conflict if it were to come, and a cold war where the EU ends up with Russia on top of them like a wet blanket, they probably don’t mind at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n None of this is actually guesswork but things that have been previously discussed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The big difference is that Trump has set the entire playing field in motion in record time, and while everyone is watching the world’s most insane negotiation strategy that will give us BREXIT 2.0 for the USA, we are also taking several big steps closer to a global major conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The problem with China is that they are Chinese, and in my opinion, you need a number of years to understand them. The risk of a crash between the EU and China in a very high pitch seems imminent, and after that, a full-scale interstate war is just a trigger away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And at least Russia, perhaps also the USA, will ensure that we get exactly the right trigger at the right time \u2013 false flags as a start of war are almost standard procedure \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n Experts and individuals in sensitive decision-making positions are probably quite shaken now as they begin to realize how close we are to a global conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One thing we said back in 2022 was that when Europe feels threatened by Russia, countries’ Chiefs of Defense will start working on their job descriptions and demand significantly increased national defense, and then we neglect Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Something that arises because the EU has not secured the raw materials is a shortage of equipment in military production?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Likely also a component shortage because China may stop delivering a single component to a product that then remains 99.9% complete and sits there in the parking lot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Important not to forget Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I maintain my previous position that \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n -how China chooses to act will determine whether we are heading towards a global conflict or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -if Ukraine can make Russia turn inward and we take Belarus and demilitarize Kaliningrad, Europe has secured the eastern border for the next 200 years, and we want Ukraine with us in the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Below could perhaps be the best outcome if we end up in a global conflict \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n -EU solves the eastern border as mentioned above within a reasonable time \u2013 it requires some tough decisions, but when RU is expelled from Ukraine, Belarus has joined us, and Kaliningrad is demilitarized, we build our front lines and bunker systems in our time’s great frog-eater line that works this time. Then we close the damn border against Russia and uproot the subversive activities at the roots. This is something we must do and cannot try to delegate to others, but it is also the end of Europe’s participation in our time’s global conflict. We will have lost hundreds of thousands of civilians and military personnel, but it stops there, and the likelihood of our success is high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -The USA and China are in an interstate war, and Asia is becoming the great battlefield of our time; the region will be devastated, and the question is whether South Korea will survive. Europe might as well stay out of it because it will be an absolutely enormous power struggle, and eventually, they will tire after 200 million dead and come to some kind of peace agreement. China can never invade the USA, and the USA does not have the ability to invade China, so you all understand that they will continue to clash until they tire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Israel is overrun; not many war games end with them coming out victorious, unfortunately. The country is small, and now super cheap drones have proven to be the great weapons of our time. The only nuclear weapons fired in the war will be from Israel in self-defense against neighbors. Israel’s strength – being a multi-ethnic country – is also what will be its downfall because there are enough people on the inside who will switch sides when they smell blood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Europe quickly turns to Africa and does what I have been suggesting for years. Together with Africa, we will have a market of over two billion people, combining Europe’s high technology with Africa’s natural resources. We provide all countries with fair trade agreements and try to lift ourselves up together with them. I have long been enthusiastic about Africa, and it has its reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -The EU is trying to balance rearmament, limited war with Russia, peace economy, and Africa, and with a bit of luck, we will emerge from this as a huge powerhouse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I believe the USA has bitten off more than they can chew here, wanting to both dampen Europe and confront China – I am less interested in what happens to the USA post-war, and China, as Europe will emerge strengthened from this together with Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I understand that I am a bit early as usual, but right now, I feel that it will no longer matter what Ukraine does.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Previously, I have warned about the global conflict and that at some point, it will take on a life of its own, and no currently living leader will be able to control it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And then I have advocated that Ukraine can de-escalate our current global conflict by turning Russia inwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After Trump’s latest rampage, I believe we are dangerously close to the point where Ukraine is no longer relevant to the conflict, if not already past it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But as you can see above, it is crucial for Europe not to miss out on a good crisis, and if the right steps are taken – with Africa being one of the key elements – then all of us reading these posts will have less direct impact from the war and a brighter future for our children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Everyone except the Balts, who will probably be completely blown away, but if we managed to live with ourselves after the Baltic extradition, we can probably steel ourselves against this too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels,<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you want a fun comment section – johanno1.se. The comments are of high quality, I can promise you that – you learn something new every day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack – now, for heaven’s sake, don’t forget to become paying subscribers, even those of you who already follow. It’s great to see that some find it worth reading, appreciate all the work put into this, and took the step to subscribe, but more are needed \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n