The second is that RU is advancing in some areas. Kursk was obviously given up because Trump would never give it any value in negotiations, and then the losses served no purpose. It was originally a declared political offensive to provide bargaining chips. The fact that they left days before Trump’s important negotiation in Russia says it all in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Oskil has been crossed north of Kupiansk in several places, Toretsk is RU again, and on the Southern front, the Russian bastards have started moving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now it seems that the negotiations have collapsed anyway, and Ukraine is attacking across the border in other places instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n IF there had been no influence from Trump, Ukraine SHOULD have held Kursk to tie up all the units there and then open several new attack vectors across the border on the northern front. The North Koreans have not arrived yet, and almost all Russian troops were tied up around Kursk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n THEN the pressure would have eased on Kursk when RU, in panic, had to send brigades surrounding Kursk to all the other attack vectors instead, which began to spread like sun rays across the border.<\/p>\n\n\n\n With a lot of pressure from the USA and in a situation where UA did not feel that THEY wanted to be seen as the ones who crashed everything (Zelensky has repeatedly said, by the way) – which was what Trump projected. They are also just guessing like us, and today we can probably assume with a fair amount of certainty that Trump rigged everything in favor of Russia so that what Ukraine did did not give them any advantages with Trump\/USA – which they hoped for at the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Very low, even for Trump, but we also have a reality to deal with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There are low-hanging fruits and then there are less low-hanging ones – if one does not believe in the above after the USA completely prohibited Ukraine from carrying out offensives into Russia earlier, it does not follow a consistent line because the probability is extremely high that Trump did it – maintaining the formal line of Biden and the USA they had throughout the entire war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The latest UA offensive INSIDE the Kursk bulge was not smart; they would have had a greater impact if they had opened several other attack vectors into Russia. I guess it was not relevant just before the peace negotiations, and Trump has straightened it out for Ukraine?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine absolutely has the equipment and ammunition to carry out an offensive, and they could have kept RU increasingly busy up on the northern front with more and more bulges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The door to the northern front closes when the NK 11th Army corps arrives in full force, which it has not done yet. The calmer it gets, the greater the risk that it will, which is a reasonable assumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to previous reports, UA has now neutralized FAB, they have drone superiority, and effectively disrupt RU with EW. And they have a 40km wide wet blanket over RU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russian artillery on the way to the front \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1908575828335608137?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Today is the season of mud, and there are several videos about RU units receiving maintenance with small FPV drones because nothing gets through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1908639960523301055?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n UA can effectively isolate RU units in an area and then eliminate them, where the mechanical failure mostly becomes a cleanup operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The most important thing is to constantly move this forward, and the result will be the same – reaching a point where RU cannot defend itself better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In 2024, as we learned in the NYT article, Zelensky ordered Zalizhny to retake all of Ukraine, so you can guess what they are planning, right? \ud83d\ude01<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to their own statement, they do not have the slightest shortage of drones produced in millions annually, and RU now takes closer to 80-85% of the losses from drone weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n UA has also carried out offensive operations from a numerical disadvantage as a rule – something to think about when many believe that we, who are much better than Ukraine according to many, needed a 3:1 numerical advantage for our armored infantry attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Instead of capturing terrain ahead, they fight the troops in the area, and the daily losses hopefully remain high for RU – at some point, it will break.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is also the elite forces that are disproportionately depleted, which means that you cannot compare with a total figure of RU numerical strength in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And those mobilized since November 2024 have not believed that they need to fight – they hoped for peace and signed up for the bonus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I am pretty sure that Trump’s seemingly random violent actions are a multi-step rocket where Iran is one step, and a Russian offensive in the Baltics and Svalbard another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Iran will lead to high oil prices that will hit Europe the hardest, as they have cut ties to Russia – and now we will probably have sky-high tariffs on oil bought from the USA?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then a Russian attack on the Baltics (the southeastern corner of Estonia) will increase the risk, which could lead to crisis interest rates with a bit of luck (or bad luck)?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then Trump probably intends to lower taxes for low and middle-income earners in the USA because that is the easiest way to buy peace when the masses start getting upset – bread. After all, he plans to stay in power for 4 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I already see several strong countries beginning to align against the USA, and the EU is a VERY attractive option for everyone to try to negotiate trade deals with – it would almost be a disservice for the EU to miss this open goal of taking over from the USA, I think.<\/p>\n\n\n Trump is playing high risk and the USA might fail with this \u2013 which should then mean that he is TRYING to rig this as well with serious market manipulation in the form of Iranian and Russian influence. One would reasonably not take such a risk without trying to secure some extra guarantees for its success, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The question is mostly WHEN Trump threatens with war if Europe doesn’t buy American products, or withdraws all American troops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I personally feel anxious as my salary in dollars is decreasing and nothing the USA does is good for Ukraine or Europe, but dismissing everything by saying Trump is insane is taking the easy way out, I believe \u2013 then one hasn’t read the history of the USA and their relationship with Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China has recently conducted a rather violent exercise against Taiwan and has built its mulberry ports, but they are also in a full trade war with the USA and cooperate with archenemies Japan and South Korea on that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If they can improve their relationship with the EU through soft means and give the USA a pinch, maybe that will be enough for them?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Overregulation doesn’t have a huge impact on the current conflict, but I just want to point out that the EU has introduced 13,000 new laws and regulations just in the last five years \u2013 it’s not very difficult to understand that our companies have lost competitiveness against the USA and China, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then the next major Swedish societal gain, fossil-free steel, is only competitive provided that legislation is enacted around it. Below is the only advantage I could find on Google \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n “11. Why should I buy fossil-free steel? An investment in fossil-free steel adds value to your company by eliminating the carbon footprint in the steel part of your value chain.”<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Here is SSAB’s own pitch \u2013 only the fossil-free aspect is the selling point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.ssab.com\/sv-se\/fossilfri\/faq-svar-pa-de-stora-fragorna<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n This means that our fossil-free and 20% more expensive steel will only be able to be sold in the EU, where we can legislate on its value, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then one must be very careful because apparently steel production requires more electricity than regular steel, so one must locate factories where we have renewable energy, or else the whole idea goes up in smoke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have most of the steelworks in Bergslagen \u2013 those located in SE3, we cannot be sure if they are renewable, especially if the steel is produced during winter on a windless day \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n If they are relocated further north, longer transports are added,<\/p>\n\n\n\n I think this is a great example of why things are going better for China and the USA than for us, because we come up with business ideas that need legislation to function.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then Stegra is not far from bankruptcy either, and no one will ever talk about fossil-free steel again after that \u2013 I bet a month’s salary on it. And another one on Stegra going bankrupt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When I worked at a certain technical office in a certain larger city, the pressure was always on to find environmentally friendly materials. The slightly more experienced ones in construction avoid new things like the plague because they know which materials work as they have seen their performance over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I was calling suppliers of wooden bridge constructions that promised 80 years, and at the same time, the municipality had wooden bridges that had rotted in less than 10 years. Norway has fared better as they have treated the wood with something we are not allowed to use, but cost and safety were secondary to environmentally friendly materials, and old civil engineers who refused were considered backward and not deserving respect by young 20-somethings who knew what was important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That larger wooden bridge constructions have collapsed in Norway with many fatalities, they were not aware of, of course \u2013 wood has a tendency to collapse suddenly, and since bridges are often built over water, they are in the worst possible place for their durability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hot tip for buyers \u2013 never trust manufacturers’ promises unless they also provide a guarantee for the promised time, but they never do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I still believe that what will determine if we enter a global conflict is how China chooses to act \u2013 I have said it before and I stand by it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Can Sweden be affected by this trade war? \u2013 we have had Northvolt, Stegra is coming, we have an export-dependent economy, almost 10% unemployment, high inflation leading to higher costs in everything, and then the housing market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A majority of wind power companies also seem to have profitability issues, up to companies operating at a loss, and loans of over +150 billion SEK, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The municipalities that have heavily invested in various collaborations with wind power companies, Northvolt, Stegra, and what else, will then face a blow and surely have loans as well?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The indebtedness of mortgage borrowers has always been high in Sweden compared internationally, and housing prices are as usual sky-high in the area I have as a reference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do we actually have stagflation in Sweden now – where inflation (not the adjusted one) is far above growth and wage increases?<\/p>\n\n\n\n I don’t know which way interest rates are heading, but it wasn’t many years ago when people had loans with a few years’ terms at 1% interest, and now the three-month rate is at 3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Could financial risk increase in terms of bank interest rates here, or will they decrease in a crisis?<\/p>\n\n\n\n I remember 2008 when the PIIGS countries faced crisis interest rates of 25% while everything crashed, and the world lowered interest rates. The banks’ borrowing is a factor, and if it moves in terms of risk as it did for the PIIGS, the central bank can’t do anything else but watch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And a Russian attack into the Baltics could be seen as such a risk \u2013 because just as we are trying to economically weaken Russia so they get tired of fighting in Ukraine, they are trying to economically weaken us so we get tired of supporting Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The only way to prevent Russian escalation is if UA gets to RU this spring and summer, otherwise they will move into the Baltics, and maybe Svalbard \u2013 this is seen as likely by all serious assessors, and you will see troop movements and increased readiness around Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n By the way, Sweden has already raised its preparedness, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine has been in close contact with our leaders in Europe, and if we have an ounce of self-preservation, we will do everything to give UA the chance to strike at Russia in this round of offensive attempts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Because if Russia’s part in the escalation fails, the USA will also fail – all steps are necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If the EU does not face higher financial risk, we will appear as a very attractive alternative for most countries in the world now that the USA is cutting ties with everyone in a full trade war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Their game only works if the EU appears as a higher risk than the USA \u2013 maybe it’s a bit of Trump’s thing with the highest possible stake, but then the probability of a positive outcome for us is also higher, I think.<\/p>\n\n\n Now Trump may have gone out far in his rants and told everyone that the trade war was coming, but no one dares to position themselves considering how he is all over the place. But… those who have acted on his direct insider information and shorted the market have a free pass because it was widely announced well in advance – it would be fun to see who took large short positions in time for this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It would also be quite pleasant if the USA joins Russia and crashes so the EU can be on top of the pyramid for centuries to come – just like we’ve been saying for a long time now that the USA is not your friend, just like the bank, and at least my colleague from Peru would drink himself silly for two weeks if the USA faceplanted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It has not escaped me that those responsible for this round of escalation in the world that everyone will suffer from are the USA and Trump, not Russia, China, or any other country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels,<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you want a fun comment section – johanno1.se. The comments are of high quality, I can promise you – you learn something new every day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack – now for heaven’s sake, don’t forget to become paying subscribers even those of you who already follow. It’s great to see that some find it worth reading, appreciate all the work put into this, and took the step to subscribe, but more are needed \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17474f51-5f83-4c8d-ad87-a552583e2c4a_817x870.png\")
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