What could be attractive is perhaps Svalbard – is it so attractive that it is the target of the autumn operation even?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Low cost – high reward operation, and the Northern Fleet was trained in the summer of 2024 if you remember.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Zapad 2025 also includes the Kola Peninsula – which by definition then becomes the Northern Fleet, I guess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With the USA out of the picture – do you think Europe will manage to gather a defense for Svalbard?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They might also target Northern Norway, but I don’t see the same strategic value there, and I think they will lose that high-risk event for Europe anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They will target that area in southeastern Estonia and know that they will have to retreat within weeks, which they do with promises of eternal peace and in a cloud of forgiveness and sacked army chiefs who spoke freely under the influence. Europe is happy that we avoided more war, and no one has any thoughts of invading Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Or they never attack, but the forces are in UFA and there are many threats – but then they won’t get the flow of capital back to the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, they invade and militarize Svalbard and significantly strengthen their strategic position in the Arctic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since Norway, in its malice, is fortifying Svalbard militarily, perhaps Russia must protect Russian minorities on Svalbard in early autumn?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/russia-accuses-norway-militarising-svalbard-arctic-islands-2025-03-14<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Now think about what Trump is doing in his total incompetence and all his spontaneous idiotic outbursts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Do you think he is on his way to angering the governments of Greenland and Denmark so much that they ask all American forces to leave Greenland?<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Or maybe he expects Greenland to request to become a U.S. state by September of this year, which is what he says – you need protection (but just not yet)?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA and Russia divide the area between them – which Trump has already said they are discussing in one of his rants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n More and more puzzle pieces are starting to fit into the seemingly completely random puzzle \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n At least France is doing its part –<\/p>\n\n\n\n Macron clarifies that the borders of 1991 apply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And France has tested its nuclear chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Open question about the USA because I am really curious – the dollar is the world’s currency and will not (today!) lose value due to money printing. I lean towards the fact that the national debt has skyrocketed in the last five years and the dollar has become stronger. Since everything is always relative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They have their deal with the FED owned by banks, but isn’t that a bit like Japan where citizens own the entire national debt? I think 30% is owned by other countries and the rest within the USA – but only 15% (of the total) by the FED.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What I’m getting at is if a debt write-off can be done within just the USA that would wipe out a large part of the national debt \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since the USA is currently driving the global development of this and I can’t for the life of me believe that they are just wildly swinging, I’m trying to understand how they think they will get through this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is a big difference between trying and succeeding, and in larger movements, there are too many parameters and unknowns to be sure of success. It becomes “you have a 60% chance of success,” and then the downside of failure, doing nothing and succeeding – that’s what the decision is based on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n My interpretation has been that the USA has been declining for a while and Europe has been on the rise if you listen to the bigger picture, and it was of course the end of the Cold War that drove this change for the better for us in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA sees China as a threat that they probably have to deal with, and the USA does not want the EU to become too strong – that’s two truths in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Why is that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Because the USA presumably wants to remain at the top – they like it there. The difference is that up until now, they have run their protection racket that everyone has paid for, but now it is starting to become unattractive, and if there were suddenly eternal peace, it would probably dwindle to zero, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then the Military-Industrial Complex loses all its astronomical revenues, and when the USA is involved in negotiations, protection is no longer a winning promise for a whole range of different products, both civilian and military, as well as investments in the USA and buying American government bonds, and raw material extraction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is a lot the USA would lose in one fell swoop.<\/p>\n\n\n China has probably already surpassed the USA economically, if I remember correctly?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sweden got negative interest rates for the first time in 2015 – before that, it didn’t exist in the economics books, and maybe we avoided being dragged into a more severe downturn?<\/p>\n\n\n\n So what can the USA do THAT IS OUTSIDE THE ECONOMICS BOOKS to save itself this time?<\/p>\n\n\n\n I think it was MigrantJ who wrote yesterday that the USA wants runaway inflation to chip away at the national debt, but many also write that higher interest rates and higher prices will crash the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And now that Trump has started to behave like Trump, there are clear measurable capital outflows to Europe from the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Would the USA benefit if Russia were crushed and the EU emerged stronger from this together with Ukraine – obviously Biden didn’t feel that way, and neither did Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China is on the rise, the EU wants better relations with China – at least Germany and France, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The EU would also have 80 years of peace if Russia collapsed – you know, what I constantly paint as the result of avoiding our current global conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Regardless of what one thinks of Trump, the USA, and Biden, it is a red line in US actions that Russia should not collapse like a house of cards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump is also tough on China, just like the USA and Biden were before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yes, I have gotten a bit stuck on the USA because I suspect that the USA could be the enabler here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is crystal clear to me that if only Europe supports Ukraine to the finish line and holds the border in the Baltics, Russia will turn inwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But the USA seems to be trying to counteract this in the ways they can.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And the more Russia increases efforts to NOT turn inwards, the more Europe increases efforts to force Russia to turn inwards – and then we can assume that the USA will also increase its efforts, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n When the pieces fall, we will see how it went. We are probably entering uncharted territory, but the USA has a cadre of advisers who are NOT idiots. They usually outline the guidelines for the most intricate setups and often come out on top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It bothers me quite a bit that when Russia seriously starts to falter, they are rescued by the USA of all countries \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels,<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you want an engaging comment section – johanno1.se. The comments are of high quality, I can promise you that you will learn something new every day, and you can also post pictures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack – now, for heaven’s sake, don’t forget to become paying subscribers even those of you who already follow. It’s great to see that some find it worth reading, appreciate all the work put into this, and took the step to subscribe, but more are needed \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1.-Macron-473x1024.png\")
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