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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nTrump doesn’t give up on Greenland – now Vance and his wife are going there on vacation, and it has gone so far that Mette has commented on the matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Canada faced sky-high trade tariffs along with Mexico, and Trump threatens the EU with most things – haven’t followed all the twists there, but in terms of increased risk that can drive interest rates for a company, a threat of 75% tariffs on everything to your largest export market is one such risk, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When Trump announced a state crypto fund, XRP surged significantly, I saw today – Trump CAN influence markets just through a statement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yesterday I rhetorically asked if Putin wants to provide the black swan for a stock market crash in the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Also note that 4 American soldiers have been found dead in the Baltics – we’ll see if Trump uses that as a reason to withdraw all US forces from the Baltics this spring…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is a lot of mocking laughter at Trump and his various decisions that will crash the USA. First of all, I don’t see his popularity ratings crashing in the USA, and secondly, some decisions have been good for the USA (but not good for us in Europe).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We’ll see in March, but inflation seems to be declining in the USA?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump has de facto seemed to go after illegal immigration and the major refugee crisis in 2016 was a high-cost event if you remember. Then he shows determination to his voters by deporting illegally immigrated individuals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Starting to pull back militarily is also a cost-saving measure and not coming across as a hawk is probably positively received by many.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Foreign investment seems to be increasing, and do you know why – because everything is relative, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Trump can make the EU an uncertain market, companies will want to invest in the USA, and how does it look right now with a Russian threat of war against the EU and all the tariffs?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
https:\/\/www.economist.com\/business\/2025\/03\/17\/will-trumps-tariffs-turbocharge-foreign-investment-in-america<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump only needs 51% of voters to feel they are better off after Biden, to stay in power, and the first test is in two years. Then he will probably hand over to Vance maybe in the next election if he hasn’t already changed the rules \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n He has tweaked the voting procedure a bit with ID, paper ballots, and same-day counting, which presumably benefits the GOP, otherwise he wouldn’t have pushed for it, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Another simple way is to try to increase security and then leave more money in the citizens’ wallets. They seem to be targeting the gangs if you believe the information about all the deportations?<\/p>\n\n\n\n I find the taxes too difficult to decipher, and D or R say completely different things \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/03\/03\/who-benefits-from-trump-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-extension.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Above are just the measures to keep Trump in power, but then there is a very important point mentioned above – EVERYTHING IS ALWAYS RELATIVE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If the EU is perceived as better, companies and money will flow there from the USA, and vice versa, so presumably the USA currently sees the EU as a greater threat to their economy?<\/p>\n\n\n\n China is not a threat, and neither is Russia, as the two areas to hide in during troubled times are either the USA or the EU. It is also no secret that the USA sees a too strong EU as a threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So here is what I am starting to suspect, and some pieces are probably already confirmed –<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump has a deal with Putin that he will get a boost. The first part was to stop the influence operation with refugees from Mexico, and there it has probably decreased by 90% or something now based on the number of arrests when they significantly increased presence – and it has decreased by 90%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Previously it was the opposite – using the refugee card to help Trump win the election. That Russia helped Trump win the election is well known, and RU gave Trump a boost back in 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The next move that Putin can offer is attractive deals for the USA – there is something with the Arctic Circle in the works, and Trump has previously hinted at commodity deals with Russia, which the EU has completely cut off in solidarity with Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If the USA gets everything and at a good price, it’s a win for the USA, period, and Trump can take credit for this. Russia then gets better payment than from China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then conversely, with the tide turning – US products sold in Russia now when the European market has completely given up the fight provides a market for American products in a market that is currently empty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The citizens of the USA probably couldn’t care less about Ukraine and us in the EU if they start to do better economically. It would probably make Putin popular again if one were to guess, with lots of new McDonald’s, American cars, and iPhones instead of Chinese plastic toys at inflated prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The peace plan has a hidden agenda – Trump uses it as a justification to start lifting sanctions one by one for Russia. What the EU decides is secondary because the USA can then start trading with RU again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It would be nice if there were peace, but that requires Ukraine to yield, and if they don’t, it will probably continue – Trump will just adjust his statements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump also can’t stop Europe from giving more, but the quick-witted will soon realize that there will be high costs for Europe with the commitments we are entering into now. Politicians and lobby groups never miss a good crisis, so now it will be completely exaggerated, which will make our economies vulnerable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The only thing Trump currently cannot control is if Ukraine starts to thrive and things go too well \u2013 he has tried, but Ukraine has not yielded. It is possible that we will see more from Trump in the future in an attempt to prevent Ukraine from doing things that are beneficial for UA in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The EU is still too anxious, and we allow ourselves to be influenced to some extent, even though we are starting to toughen up a bit. But no one in the EU can control if the risk escalates due to Russia, causing capital flows to go to the USA instead \u2013 no one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So what is the benefit for the USA, everyone wonders, why abandon Europe in favor of the glammed-up gas station Russia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then one is misreading everything as usual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since WW2, the USA has always tried to keep Europe down \u2013 that is probably the dark secret in their geopolitical strategy that they never openly talk about – if you ask me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Just like the leaders in the West keep silent about being terrified of Russia’s subversive activities and prefer to look the other way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA abandoned the UK in 1943 in favor of the Soviet Union. The Cold War allowed the USA to let it happen despite all of Churchill’s efforts to at least save Poland – and it became the best years for the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I truly understand why Europe had to pay for US protection in gold – it gave the USA the American Dream.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Right now, Europe is doing the opposite of what we should according to the USA \u2013 instead of backing down, we are standing up, and for the USA to succeed in leading us into a new Cold War, Ukraine must not be allowed to win with Europe’s help, right? Then everything de-escalates, and we have peace for over 80 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I have a suspicion that the USA is not at all opposed to a new Cold War because then they can sell weapons to us, raw materials, LNG, and oil \u2013 and then the protection will return, which will fleece us to the bone. Just like the UK had to give away its empire for US support in WW2. The Soviet Union did not repay everything, by the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Considering the above \u2013 what needs to happen here for it to start benefiting the USA?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe needs to experience insecurity and instability to the extent that the safe haven becomes the USA again \u2013 period. Then the USA will come out on top in this, and Trump\/GOP will retain power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Things are not going very well for Europe, and if a larger default carousel can be set in motion, it could quickly become lively. One way is to raise interest rates, and increased risk usually drives interest rates up, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/europe\/euro-zone-economy-stagnated-last-quarter-foreshadowing-weak-2025-2025-01-30<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n I’m getting a bit off-topic here, but in 2008, the PIIGS crashed because China had learned to copy their industry and produce at the same quality but cheaper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We are losing market share in our high-tech industry in Sweden every few years as China takes over more, and rising electricity prices have exacerbated this. The German automotive miracle is no longer a wonder child \u2013 it’s doing poorly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is very possible that China has now managed to copy our high technology, and if prices soar due to fuel and electricity costs, we might face another 2008, but for countries with high-tech exports?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now that Russia has exhausted itself in the MENA region and has been expelled from Syria, the only way to escalate in the area would be Israel and the USA against Iran \u2013 it seems likely to happen and is an escalation that could reasonably impact oil prices. The first thing Iran will do is sink a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and if they have the audacity to refuse, the USA will likely accidentally combat a tanker in the same place, which will unexpectedly sink \u2013 “looked like an Iranian corvette.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n Imagine combining that with the USA ceasing to sell oil and LNG to Europe because the USA needs it all for themselves \u2013 or imposing exorbitant taxes\/tariffs as revenge for something fabricated?<\/p>\n\n\n\n (Ok, maybe solar panels and wind power aren’t such a bad idea after all \ud83d\ude00)<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/think.ing.com\/articles\/the-eus-gdp-exposure-to-trumps-trade-policy-europe-growth<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n The next step is to try to push towards a stock market crash\/bank run\/soaring interest rates\/inflation, and one step in that direction would be if the USA slaps on a bunch of tariffs\/taxes on everything, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n And trying to create a black swan event for Europe, which a “NATO test” against the Baltics would certainly be, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Pair that with a massive amount of sabotage and nuclear threats, and it could work wonders for the stock markets \u2013 the USA, with Russia’s help, creates an artificial risk that makes Europe unattractive for capital and investments \u2013 Voila, everything comes back to the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That’s why Trump is not worried because EVERYTHING IS ALWAYS RELATIVE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do the USA and Russia seriously believe this would work?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Remember 2008?<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2014 \u2013 The UA war began<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2015 \u2013 the major refugee crisis<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2016 \u2013 Brexit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And now, in the near future, three years of full-scale war in Ukraine where Europe has not managed to get things in order.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hindsight suggests that this will work out just fine, and that is probably how analysts work with their probability analysis, where hindsight is part of the analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then we have a couple more pieces to add to the puzzle besides war in Europe and soaring oil prices (for us in Europe).<\/p>\n\n\n\n -The refugee weapon 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Halt in international shipping to Europe through the Houthis and maybe also RU?<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Conflicts in EU countries \u2013 groups pitted against each other, and the whole aspect where Russia excels as an Olympic champion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Political crises \u2013 noticed that there aren’t many elections in 2025, so we’re in a good position there, but opposition calling for resignations maybe? Representatives of the Left Party have actually been doing that for a few months now, daily. Apparently, our government are fascists and must resign immediately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Soaring crime rates where Russia activates criminal clans and gang criminals to the level of wartime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Direct large-scale sabotage and murders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia doesn’t need to start a major war in Europe beyond “testing NATO” to bring down Europe and give us a new Cold War. The USA will take care of the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The observant already knows that Trump wants to impose soaring tariffs on us and will not help us at all when RU attacks \u2013 he has said that several times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What everyone thinks is a Trump power grab for a few oligarchs is actually the USA’s geopolitical game to continue keeping Europe down as they have done since 1943.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I dare not speculate on China here \u2013 I want to believe that the resistance against the USA is genuine and that what we see from China is what it is. But if China is also on board, then Europe has a pretty big problem to deal with in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I can see several factors at play that will not be good for China, though \u2013 trade and a stronger Russia, to name a few.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So I’ll leave it at that with China \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do you know what the best part is \u2013 we just need to wait until at least September 2025 to see if this theory holds up or not. Some puzzle pieces suddenly fell into place for me, and someone often says that the USA is just like the bank, not your friend.<\/p>\n\n\n By the way, RU seems to believe that the USA will be able to open Nordstream for them and force the EU to buy LNG. The quick-witted remember that Trump has hinted at the idea of buying Nordstream. RU – USA have extremely advanced discussions where we are only informed of a fraction, that’s my guess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n Philip seems to be reading the thread at least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n