Compared to what Ukraine has lost, and only then written off because workshops all over Europe help UA restore everything else –<\/p>\n\n\n\n
https:\/\/www.oryxspioenkop.com\/2022\/02\/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n And then what UA has captured from RU –<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.oryxspioenkop.com\/2022\/02\/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n It is difficult to see that Ukraine would be lacking in material. But yes \u2013 there have been complaints about the workshops, especially Western weapons, earlier, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Bulgaria has delivered a lot in secret, and the Czech Republic has gone a bit under my radar in any case. The amount of material is somewhat astronomical, one must admit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Ukraine produces just under 500 Bohdana wheeled howitzers\/year now and they have lost a total of 400 wheeled\/track howitzers throughout the war (yes, oryx, but we don’t have much more to go on).<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Ukraine manufactures its own 155mm ammunition, their BT-4 is mass-produced, and they license-produce M113 and HMMRW now, I believe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n -they have been installing new weapon stations on older BMP1, M113, BTR60 for a while so that they become the 2025 model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Ukraine is world-leading in drone weapons and now has its own long-range (real) missiles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This one is suspiciously similar to the V1<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/twitter.com\/DefenceU\/status\/1892921597947748502<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n -two corvettes are completed in Turkey and they probably have around 300 riverboats or something like SB90 for amphibious combat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -they have at least 100 helicopters \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n -They produce mines, cluster ammunition, thermobaric ammunition \u2013 and they now have license production for commercial weapons and ammunition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -German IFVs are set to start license production in Ukraine, as well as CV90.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -The only thing Ukraine doesn’t produce anew is probably tanks, but they probably have thousands of T64 tank hulls left in storage (a persistent rumor that cannot be verified). Since IFVs and APCs have their own weapon stations modeled in 2025, you won’t get any prizes for guessing that the T64 chassis will have a new turret model by 2025 onwards \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Ukraine also has specialized aircraft, perhaps not in sufficient numbers but at least for deterrence and close air support. F-16s have at least started flying air cover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -they have access to their own satellites and soon our two AWACS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -They should probably receive the European platforms and robots in sufficient quantities, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nasams factory in UA<\/p>\n\n\n\n It looks to me like Ukraine is well-equipped \u2013 in 2023 and 2024, they have also significantly expanded their armed forces, so they simply did not have the amount of material for that expansion that is now catching up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Right now, deliveries to Ukraine are hot \u2013 absolutely enormous amounts of material are heading eastward, and Russia is complaining loudly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/twitter.com\/sprinterobserve\/status\/1903588173407539317?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/twitter.com\/kvistp\/status\/1903673756343538029?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n There are some other odds and ends \u2013 Italian Centauro a couple of hundred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our 18 Archer with accompanying Arthur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n More Polish T72s<\/p>\n\n\n\n The British could send 800 Warrior IFVs<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our 40mm LV akan is now in Ukraine, by the way, they made a stopover in the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n France has now started sending Cesar to Estonia, which one can interpret as UA having enough, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sweden sends Tridon<\/p>\n\n\n\n Patria from Latvia<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n A suggestion came on Substack from a commentator named Peter that the refugee weapon should be activated again now that Russia has moved its Syria operations to Libya – and it should indeed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Because what was more paralyzing for Europe in 2015-2016 when Russia had just started its proxy war in Ukraine than the major refugee crisis \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since we are now on the timeline, we know that in 2015-2016 when we had the refugee crisis, it was right after the RU war in Ukraine that started in 2014, and that made us in Europe fully occupied with other matters. That was such a godsend for Russia that the probability is 1 that they were behind it – it was part of the planning simply like the gas weapon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The problem is when something commendable becomes a weapon instead – then we in Europe do not know how to handle it. Which Russia knows very well, and that’s why they carried out the operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Just like with everything else, it is also an added value for Russia and its accomplices – they earn obscene amounts of money from the operation as a one-way ticket costs thousands of dollars…<\/p>\n\n\n\n Of course, Russia had hoped that 10 million Ukrainian refugees would cause chaos in Europe, but they had the audacity to just learn the language, start working, and become taxpayers instead. And then they tried to pit Ukrainians against other groups in different countries through subversive activities all the time, but it didn’t work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia has also been involved in driving refugee flows towards the USA – they have paid millions of dollars for plane tickets to Mexico from the USA to fly migrants in, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Also Brexit – which completely paralyzed the UK (it’s proven now).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine was completely abandoned when we struggled to try to handle large refugee flows in a dignified manner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n NGO ships that are supposed to rescue distressed refugees have rationalized their operations and now go all the way to the Libyan coast to pick up migrants. Italy has tried to sort this out and who is behind it – because someone is paying for these ships \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Moldova and Romania, Putin has failed, but that doesn’t stop him from killing off the resistance – it has been done before and can be done again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We will face sabotage against the railway network at least and likely also the power infrastructure, but not until autumn. The railway network should be targeted already this summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then another suggestion came on Substack from Someone Unknown that the North Calotte might soon be up for grabs – not entirely impossible at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The observant ones know that Putin has given Trump some deal in the Arctic, I don’t have the details in front of me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Can Putin also instigate a stock market crash?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probably if he provides the black swan in the form of testing NATO and threatening with tactical nuclear weapons\/using some tactical nuclear weapon because it might be seen as an opportunity by some unscrupulous actors within the EU to have a chance to profit from a major crash?<\/p>\n\n\n\n I don’t think Putin can wait another year because he is too cornered, so it should happen in 2025 – and Zapad 2025 is already announced, which suggests that we are not entirely off track.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Zapad 2025, Putin should try to maximize reinforcement, and then a refugee crisis, stock market crash, power chaos, and probably something else would be good options for him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I almost feel that the campaign against grocery stores is too well done, but maybe I see ghosts everywhere now, and it’s the opposition trying to return to class struggle?<\/p>\n\n\n\n But it has not escaped me that opposition politicians are now openly writing on Twitter that Kristersson must resign – so much for a truce in wartime…<\/p>\n\n\n\n When Covid hit, I got stuck in Kuwait for 8 months and then had to take a job in Sweden that I had +2.5 years before it started internationally again. The 8 months in Kuwait were indeed at Hilton’s resort, and foodora was open with all American restaurants, and I got to stay at home and do nothing with full pay – so my Robinson Crusoe experience was filet mignon breakfast, lunch, and dinner with lots of video games, basically. But the family got stuck in Sweden, and there was nothing to do about it – and it wore me down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Projects can be stopped overnight in case of major disruptions in the world, and one never has more than 1-2 months’ notice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n EVERYTHING is that damned Putin’s fault – the world would have been so much better if Russia could just turn inward and start fighting internally instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I am really not keen on another deep freeze just because a global conflict escalates, really not keen on that \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now I’m going off track significantly below and I know it, but if we are heading towards a new crash\/global recession or whatever it may be – perhaps the US’s plan is to let Putin crash Europe so we end up with the short end of the stick (again) and the US gets through this time (again)?<\/p>\n\n\n\n I am quite alone in guessing that Trump will lead the US to the top here, but his popularity figures are not exactly approaching civil war, and I think some decisions breathe America-first, which will benefit them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Right now, Trump has pushed a few things that could contribute to this, such as trade tariffs, and if Putin can play his black swan, maybe it’s unstoppable, and the downward spiral takes off?<\/p>\n\n\n\n It should have been Russia, but the USA chooses to save Russia. I don’t see China crashing either right now because the focus seems to be directed towards us from both the USA and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The above is a bit too speculative, and I’m finding my way out myself \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then I realized yesterday that the grants available for restoring wetlands apply to agriculture and energy forests covering a few hundred thousand hectares as written by the Swedish Board of Agriculture – it’s almost earmarked to reduce agricultural land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you are interested in that or a scam with salamander ponds in Bromma – check out yesterday’s comment thread on johanno1.se<\/p>\n\n\n\n By the way, here is the photo on the front page of the consultant’s report if you want to see a beautiful salamander depicted on a very expensive report – they couldn’t even find a good lizard picture for that hourly cost \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you liked the post, please feel free to share it in your channels,<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you want an entertaining comment section – johanno1.se. The comments are of high quality, I can promise you’ll learn something new every day. And you can post pictures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For those still commenting on Substack or Bluesky, switch over to that thread instead – then your grandchildren will read your historical archive and start liking you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack – don’t forget to become paying subscribers, even those of you who already follow. It’s nice to see that some find it worth reading, appreciate all the work put into this, and took the step to subscribe \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe1185ff-90b1-40d6-82be-0051bc790274_828x1792.png\")
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