{"id":1391,"date":"2025-03-22T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-22T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-march-22-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-25T17:35:54","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T15:35:54","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-march-22-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-march-22-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update March 22, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Lions<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Keep supporting these brave Warriors who still fighting and sacrificing for their Freedom.<br><br>Warriors of The Light! \ud83d\ude4f <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CY5q6OP23V\">pic.twitter.com\/CY5q6OP23V<\/a><\/p>&mdash; UKRAINIAN SQUAD\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6 (@ukrainiansquad) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1902687042468732955?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 20, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>What I don&#8217;t quite have clear is RU&#8217;s plans for the coming months, actually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We know they have a strategic reserve, so if things go badly in Ukraine, they will probably have to deploy it there, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At least that&#8217;s the logic when I talk about them attacking the Baltics if they have the Ukraine war under control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recently, RU has started moving at the southern front &#8211; a highly expected attack if so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b96d3ca-890c-4ac9-a2c4-25ab0245bdeb_1621x890.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b96d3ca-890c-4ac9-a2c4-25ab0245bdeb_1621x890.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:855px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>RU must be completely exhausted and at a low point after this marathon offensive, anything else would be unreasonable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you watch the video below, you&#8217;ll see just like me that there are no RU drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6 A Battle Caught on Helmet Cam\u2014Pure Ukrainian Bravery<br><br>A frontline video like no other. Ukrainian warriors fighting for a treeline, turned to ashes by artillery. No cover. Just craters and trenches. Mortars and drones raining down.<br><br>A YPR-765 rolls in for extraction\u2014but then\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HpxwNIM9YZ\">pic.twitter.com\/HpxwNIM9YZ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bandera Fella *-^ (@banderafella) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/banderafella\/status\/1902795803468472515?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 20, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s different on different fronts, and my previous opinion has been that UA has complete drone superiority where they pool their resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Those of you who have read the predictions in these posts know that we would come to this point &#8211; in an area where UA intends to carry out an offensive, they paralyze everything with drone weapons, FAB destroys fortifications, and then when the defense is supposed to take position, cluster ammunition rains down on them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Something for our military to consider is probably the following &#8211; historically, artillery has accounted for perhaps 70% of losses when fighting against artillery-heavy opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The USA solved this with CAS and Ahkp, which Israel also seems to prefer &#8211; JDAMs in their case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then, robots were supposed to be the new black &#8220;scud rain&#8221; and &#8220;Iskander rain,&#8221; but they are too expensive. However, their accuracy is good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I would now argue that tomorrow&#8217;s artillery, which is already here, requires much less ammunition and is accurate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But expensive &#8211; the USA, Russia, and Israel either have very expensive weapon carriers like top fighters, launch ramps, ships, and then in the case of robots &#8211; ammunition that costs millions each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Ukraine war has brought us to the point where we achieve the same effect for a fraction of the cost &#8211; and the development has only just begun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>UA causes 70% of Russian losses with drone weapons &#8211; exactly the figure we previously had for the damage caused by artillery. But then we don&#8217;t need to attack a target with 100 shells and then have worn-out barrels and weapon platforms that are very expensive and also get knocked out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A handful of FPV drones at the group level is enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First of all, now any defense force in the world can have Soviet artillery &#8211; Hamas and Hezbollah have tried, but Israel was too clever, and the Houthis have managed to combat expensive fighters with cheap drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Secondly, it seems like the US dominance on the world&#8217;s seas is no more (very soon).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thirdly, countries&#8217; infrastructure is now seriously vulnerable deep down because everyone will have the Ukrainian concept within two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Means and countermeasures &#8211; Israel has now deployed laser platforms that can eliminate multiple drone threats at a cost of 5EUR per shot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The problem here is that the platform itself costs exorbitant sums, and we have seen in the Ukraine war how Ukraine constantly uses the entire range of tools for combat &#8211; for example, using reconnaissance to guide in inaccurate artillery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Expensive platforms are also not useful on the new battlefield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are back to infantry that is field-ready &#8211; and then high-tech with drone weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, tomorrow&#8217;s tanks and IFVs will be a veritable porcupine with lots of countermeasures 360 degrees because they are absolutely necessary but not in huge mechanized formations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AI drones are probably not even a year away, and then autonomous drone swarms where the smallest are 100mm hornets released in swarms from mothership drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And the countermeasures will be cheaper autonomous AI drone hunters where a firing platform, for example, is a rifle with a drum of anti-drone drones at the group level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They are here to stay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have seen in Kursk how the North Koreans did not know how to conduct themselves in field operations in the 2025 war and suffered enormous losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Field operations in 2025 are something all of Europe must immediately take seriously, or else we will face the same problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personally, I believe that Israel will increasingly struggle, and their attempts to remove Palestinian areas that are going completely wrong are probably a way to counteract this?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead of suicide bombers and all IEDs, terrorists will release drone swarms over Israel that they have built in basements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia and China provide them with the technology and supply them with the equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The possibility of Israel being wiped out in the future is on my list as not unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump seems to be considering starting a war against Iran, and then it will be lively in the MENA region, I can promise you, when the USA once again tries to create eternal peace through war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then drones will probably become increasingly a favorite weapon for terrorists in Europe in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another interesting thing was that the EU managed to bypass Hungary in the decision on support for UA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One must be careful, but it seems, according to Lynx at johanno1.se, that they have made addendums to an already decided something and managed it without Hungary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We shouldn&#8217;t set too attractive precedents here for overriding countries&#8217; sovereignty on major issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There&#8217;s a good chance that Orban will fall this year, by the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I feel that the EU should now include &#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Iceland, Switzerland (maybe not possible), UK, Norway, Moldova, Serbia, Canada, and Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(and turn Kaliningrad into an amusement park for vacations).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Turkey can get trade agreements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then they should try to reduce the &#8220;supremacy&#8221; and allow countries to form coalitions where they want to solve issues important to them in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, as we have done in the Baltic Sea region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then, at the EU level, they need to discuss financing &#8211; for example, the EU must fund our defense shield in the future, even if it is we around the Baltic Sea, Belarus, and Ukraine who manage it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead of an EU army, they have cooperation where countries contribute brigades away from the defense shield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Something like that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We don&#8217;t need more bureaucracy for this &#8211; we need open discussion, forums, understanding, and sheer determination only.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There you have my vision for the future of the EU, preferably just free movement and the opportunity to work across borders instead of moving where the benefits are because after all, it&#8217;s someone else&#8217;s tax money that you&#8217;re then taking &#8211; money that could have been kept and used for their own children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We should try to include all countries, and we must straighten out the defense shield to the east.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then, Iceland, Canada, Norway, and the UK are countries we WANT to have on board \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then turn your gaze south and start finding strategic partners in Africa and give them fair, honest trade agreements, and you will see a prosperous EU in the future. One country at a time in Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As other countries understand that approaching the EU means a huge boost for the country as a whole and that the path to a prosperous large middle class has begun, the queue will be long, and we can break today&#8217;s negative spirals.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If I were Putin, by now I would have realized that there are no low-hanging fruits in Ukraine and looked around.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Moldova and Romania have de facto failed.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Serbia and Hungary seem to be slowly moving away from RU.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>And Trump&#8217;s peace negotiations may well be considered a failure, McDonald&#8217;s Gandhi was just that &#8211; no Nobel Prize this year either.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>China is also not likely to get much more actively involved in the war than they are today, reasonably.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Ukraine&#8217;s strategic capabilities are increasing significantly, and RU is declining.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Ukraine&#8217;s drone warfare as well, and UA now has top-notch aircraft so FAB are eliminated &#8211; or they already were with cyber warfare.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Yes, RU also has wire-guided drones but that is not enough to replace all other indirect capabilities.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>All else being equal, Putin should now start to understand that time is running out here?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Trump did not bring Europe along.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Trump did not stop Ukraine.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Europe will provide resources to Ukraine on a scale far beyond what RU can manage.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This will be a slow bleed-out until 2025.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>So, the remaining option is to try to get the EU to back down or get distracted by something else &#8211; more likely to see further escalations.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Yes, they recruited beyond the targets BUT&#8230; it was because no one believed they would have to fight &#8211; they just wanted the bonuses.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This also tells us that in RU, they believed in this peace deal from McDonald&#8217;s Gandhi &#8211; they are tired of war.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lions What I don&#8217;t quite have clear is RU&#8217;s plans for the coming months, actually. We know they have a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ukraine daily update March 22, 2025 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-march-22-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine daily update March 22, 2025 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Lions What I don&#8217;t quite have clear is RU&#8217;s plans for the coming months, actually. 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