{"id":1407,"date":"2025-03-14T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-march-14-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-25T17:43:02","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T15:43:02","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-march-14-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-march-14-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update March 14, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Don&#8217;t lose hope when it comes to Putin in a security guard uniform refusing to cease fire \u2013 RU wants a ceasefire much longer than 30 days, that&#8217;s the important point in this mess. And of course, this ceasefire won&#8217;t be affected at all by them jumping on the Baltics this summer, right \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">IF Zelensky is further forced into some kind of longer ceasefire and the EU doesn&#8217;t support him in making a different decision, then the war is upon us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the absence of UA offensive operations, I continue with the Russian attack on the Baltics now in September 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Or, there are rumors of increased UA offensive operations but nothing concrete to go on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And you all understand that if the EU deploys 30 brigades to the Baltics this spring or Ukraine makes the situation untenable in Ukraine, then it will be postponed, again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There was a very good comment on Substack under one of my posts suggesting that the attack will be very &#8220;dirty&#8221; because RU has no other options, which made me think a bit more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have previously described the sabotage in Europe when I summarized the attack, but what if they start targeting leaders in Europe in the lead-up, for example?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Sweden, we have 14,000 gang criminals, and during the Cold War, Russia thought that 3,000-4,500 Spetsnaz would have been enough to decimate pilots, officers, and politicians around Sweden and target important infrastructure like ammunition depots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you activate 14,000 gang criminals who all get lucrative murder contracts + the bonus of our judicial system collapsing, provide them with know-how, and support them during the twilight phase, it&#8217;s quite risk-free, isn&#8217;t it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, no one seems to care that for the seventh time or so, S\u00c4PO is telling us \u2013 that gang criminals are doing the dirty business of a foreign power for money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then the commentator suggested tactical nuclear weapons because they must achieve results, otherwise they are finished as the head of the criminal clan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Perhaps it won&#8217;t be open tactical nuclear weapons with missiles or aircraft, which is a bit hard to deny, but smuggled nuclear weapons at military bases and ammunition depots and critical points that cannot be reached with missiles \u2013 also easy to deny because it was a gang criminal or ISIS terrorist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Or blowing up a parliament during a vote?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And definitely try to use conventional weapons\/explosives to blow up ammunition depots months in advance because they cannot be replaced, and a tank brigade without ammunition is not very useful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you think I&#8217;m just making things up, you can google what happened in Bulgaria before the war. The reason for that was that they had something Ukraine really wanted to buy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And again \u2013 now that we are trying to recruit more broadly, we have probably appointed a manager we trust and then recruited more broadly for the deputy position, ending up with a person reporting to a criminal clan, perhaps?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the worst case, the business leader is murdered, and the deputy takes over, who is then a Russian contact \u2013 impossible to know and could probably be the case for some classified jobs today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They will definitely target our electricity supply with large-scale sabotage, the same with the railway network, and ambushes on roads \u2013 again in Europe, involving criminals but mixed with Russian Special Operations Forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When they cross the border in September 2025, it&#8217;s war with the EU, and they MUST succeed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russia probably fights best with one foot in the door and then subversive activities almost at a war level that they can deny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Therefore, they don&#8217;t need to penetrate deep into Europe; they need a war and then they can increase the level of sabotage and covert warfare against us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What&#8217;s a bit worrying is that we are a few months away from this unfolding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ukraine is forced into a ceasefire, making the war there manageable for Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And he has already announced Zapad 2025, so preparations are in full swing, as everyone probably understands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The actual attack may come between July \u2013 September, and the units are a few miles into Russia in their regimental cities, like Pskov, and weeks\/days before the attack, they start moving them forward to their assembly areas\/UFA, and then it&#8217;s too late for the West to mobilize. I&#8217;m pretty sure RU will try to have the shortest possible time this time between leaving the regimental cities and starting the attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">September is clever because then his units are in the summer sun instead of the freezing winter when they are in their assembly areas, and he doesn&#8217;t intend to have months of offensive \u2013 he just wants to shock his way into a sufficiently large area in the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s ABSOLUTELY UNBELIEVABLE how many times Putin has needed to be saved in this war and how many times the West has saved him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now the fool struts around in Kursk like a great warlord when Trump gave him the area for free \u2013 directly embarrassing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I wonder if our leaders in Europe are starting to regret their behavior from 2022 \u2013 2024?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It wouldn&#8217;t be entirely bad for Ukraine if all of Europe got involved in the war, would it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think UA has been a bit too nice almost when they have warned us considering how we have behaved, but they are probably still trying to do the right thing, maybe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">-Slovakia, Hungary, and Serbia are already pro-Russian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">-Moldova and Romania are expected to fall soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">-The Baltics will face a war, and the question is how stable they really are?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">-What can Sweden send when the entire Russian Baltic Fleet sails along our coasts with a string of Ropuchas and helicopter carriers?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">-What can Norway send when the entire Northern Fleet sails along their coast?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">-What can the Netherlands send when Geert Wilders wants eternal peace?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">-What can France send when Le Pen wants eternal peace?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">-Finland and Poland&#8217;s national defense forces are tied up in their countries by Russian second-rate forces, North Koreans, and Chinese Special Operations Forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Germany has a minority government, and somewhat unexpectedly, Mertz and Pistorius both had heart attacks on the same day. The GRU group that mixed up the days received a pay cut and a severe scolding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CPD could consider many things, but German troops in the Baltics are simply too close to the Nazis&#8217; atrocities and won&#8217;t happen \u2013 we must learn from history and do better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have already betrayed Ukraine if we have reached this point, and they have then turned to China instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And Trump with the USA is toasting in champagne that the EU once again became a vassal state to the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the near future, we need tough decisions from the EU, by late spring a large number of brigades must be in place in the Baltics, otherwise this will slip away from us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">-To my knowledge, is it only Sweden that has recently deployed troops in the Baltics?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">-There are those famous wire obstacle battalion, a few of them?<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8211;An international Lithuanian brigade in which our battalion is the first combat unit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some command functions, LV, special air support, and maybe something else?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">-The countries&#8217; own ground defense consists of about two combat (2) brigades per Baltic state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And then they have &#8220;rapid reserve&#8221; of between 30,000 &#8211; 40,000 per country and a total reserve of 100,000 per country &#8211; for the entire defense forces (somewhat simplified).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is supposed to be enough to man the entire border between Poland &#8211; northern Estonia + coup defense of capitals\/ports\/airfields\/important industries, as well as the border with Kaliningrad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The risk of the RU area launching an attack defended by a few battalions is absolutely imminent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then it is in Russia&#8217;s interest to try to stockpile as many weapons and ammunition as they can in the twilight before the start of the war, then through surprise attacks and sabotage delay mobilization, and finally surprise attacks against mobilized units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After that, they try to carry out surprise attacks against their routes of march from assembly areas up to their UFA or battle lines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Drones active, FAB active, and so on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What Russia wants is to have as few units as possible at the border when they launch offensive operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Do not make the mistake of comparing with Ukraine because the Russians will not make that mistake again &#8211; they entered without the pre-attack as intended to work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Later in the spring, they returned to &#8220;destroy kilometer route&#8221; again and they will definitely use indirect capabilities no later than after midnight on invasion day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ru is said to have formed 2 army corps and at least 74,73,71,68 MRD would be set up already in the summer of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here is a good link about RU SOF<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F183916f7-682d-47d5-9470-dfe4f6f6e539_1802x792.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F183916f7-682d-47d5-9470-dfe4f6f6e539_1802x792.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:708px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lrt.lt\/en\/news-in-english\/19\/2401273\/international-investigation-russian-special-forces-change-tactics-in-the-baltics?srsltid=AfmBOopV8Tcrs3_u3vjZ9voqH90a99Kxk2QMBrchWPEir4mY5zLv5Ku9\">https:\/\/www.lrt.lt\/en\/news-in-english\/19\/2401273\/international-investigation-russian-special-forces-change-tactics-in-the-baltics?srsltid=AfmBOopV8Tcrs3_u3vjZ9voqH90a99Kxk2QMBrchWPEir4mY5zLv5Ku9<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is concern about the Kaliningrad SOF who will combat targets in the ports to prevent NATO reinforcements and lay mines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russia still has the shadow fleet so they will just sink a ship in each harbor entrance and then it&#8217;s done &#8211; no need for SOF because no one checks the shadow fleet and the shadow fleet can still roam the Baltic Sea as they wish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then Russia&#8217;s Baltic fleet will lay sea mines and deny access.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And of course, we have FULLDAGAPET which is reinforcements by land and Russia will distance mine and cover with drones like a wet blanket and once again deny everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">60km wide or something so they cover the entire width from Kaliningrad and Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc993c4f-ce12-441d-9430-61bcde6f5035_1067x845.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc993c4f-ce12-441d-9430-61bcde6f5035_1067x845.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:927px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It will be crucial how much the West manages to get into the area before Russia seals it off &#8211; I still believe in a local offensive where the goal is to gain territory and absolutely not overextend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the worst-case scenario would be if the West hasn&#8217;t gotten anything in and half of the Baltic casemates are blown up at the start of the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then China will have a few SOF companies in Belarus and Kaliningrad to ensure that the West does not try to invade those areas &#8211; we KNOW this because China has already had SOF in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Summer is needed for the Russian buildup and there are few roads towards the Baltics, but it goes both ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If they can conquer their area and then hold it during the wet autumn and winter, time will be on their side to divide NATO and the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, this is where we are now, this is the reality the West MUST plan for, and if it doesn&#8217;t happen, we will have peace. The likelihood of the scenario I have described in a few posts now is extremely high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What worries me is that we are not supplying Ukraine with equipment or moving our brigades to the Baltics, and we only have months left before it&#8217;s too late and we find ourselves in that situation again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You will hear the usual that Russia is worried about Western attacks and is arming in self-defense, and then the question is who this time will be the ones to convince the Baltics that there won&#8217;t be war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The problem is the following &#8211; RU doesn&#8217;t need to carry out a major operation across the entire area, all they need to do is delay Western support until the start of the war and then keep them out of the Baltics for a week or so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After that, the West has a decision to make &#8211; should we retake an area in southern Estonia at astronomical losses just to uphold the defense pact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Does anyone think we will do that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Once this is settled, a whole string of countries will start aligning with Russia and China. Geopolitically, it will be an invaluable win for Russia and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you believe that the EU is the good one and Trump the bad one every time, remember that Trump has refused to renew an exception the EU had for Russian crude oil and gas in US sanctions &#8211; so we actually asked the USA for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15c803a0-74e0-4f88-81fe-8cf608c61569_412x612.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15c803a0-74e0-4f88-81fe-8cf608c61569_412x612.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:341px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The world is not entirely black and white, and I&#8217;m starting to loosely consider whether Trump actually makes economic decisions that will benefit the USA in the long run, but I&#8217;m not an economist and don&#8217;t know anything about it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s just a feeling I have, and they usually turn out to be correct \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then I wonder the following &#8211; if Trump is very eager for peace in our time and to stamp out this dreadful war and save the children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why is he threatening Panama, Mexico, Canada, and Greenland\/Denmark with war?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And why is he starting a full-on trade war with his allies and not traditional enemies?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The conclusion is that the peacemaker Trump is the biggest hypocrite of the century Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the hypocrite Trump is also the hypocrite USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At least the EU has loudly protested on white paper in Arial 11 that Trump has forced Zelensky into this ceasefire &#8211; &#8220;call someone who cares&#8221; is what they used to say in school.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;ve looked a bit more into Estonia&#8217;s national parks, which are often near the coast, islands, or in the eastern part of the country towards the border with Russia. I know what I&#8217;m looking for but can&#8217;t find it except for this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If someone delves deeper, I think it will be difficult to build border fortifications inside these national parks, and environmental movements across Europe are not happy about it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-estonian-world wp-block-embed-estonian-world\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"tWOZ0RfLkv\"><a href=\"https:\/\/estonianworld.com\/life\/estonian-environmental-groups-rally-for-protection-of-national-parks\/\">Estonian environmental groups rally for protection of national parks<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Estonian environmental groups rally for protection of national parks&#8221; &#8212; Estonian World\" src=\"https:\/\/estonianworld.com\/life\/estonian-environmental-groups-rally-for-protection-of-national-parks\/embed\/#?secret=ttqJcADABA#?secret=tWOZ0RfLkv\" data-secret=\"tWOZ0RfLkv\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is how well Lithuania&#8217;s defense line against Russia is going &#8211; basically not at all \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lrt.lt\/en\/news-in-english\/19\/2405075\/baltic-defensive-line-takes-shape?srsltid=AfmBOor42Hn7C8Op4b3k41EDrrKp9LwVHKLw1RCg2m3Na6v-mAI76yj8\">https:\/\/www.lrt.lt\/en\/news-in-english\/19\/2405075\/baltic-defensive-line-takes-shape?srsltid=AfmBOor42Hn7C8Op4b3k41EDrrKp9LwVHKLw1RCg2m3Na6v-mAI76yj8<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Estonia, most of the defense structures are built in the northern part of the country above the lakes, and now you know if you&#8217;ve read my texts where RU will attack, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 600 bunkers are all in the northern part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-militarnyi wp-block-embed-militarnyi\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/mil.in.ua\/en\/news\/estonia-to-build-600-bunkers-to-deter-possible-russian-aggression\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is worrisome to say the least &#8211; if all Baltic reservists had been out since the turn of the year and done like Finland, this would have been ready by summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mines, concrete, steel beams&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finland solved this with timber logs sticking up, tank ditches, wooden bunkers with earth on top, and a LOT of stone boulders, which you can&#8217;t just import from all of Scandinavia yesterday unless you have them.<\/p>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The attack is coming this summer \u2013 autumn and what is ready is ready, and what is in planning is meaningless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Baltic states are NOT taking this seriously \u2013 yes, there is a huge subversive activity from RU in the Baltic states and one can guess that all major plans for fortifications to be tested extensively and completed by 2026 have RU fingerprints&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Apparently, they are not building direct defense systems, but it was interesting to see the Swedish battalion training in the defense systems they built.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forgive me &#8211; but what has worked best throughout the whole war and even Russia can build competent minefields, it is a dereliction of duty that the EU has not mined the border again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then the exciting question arises here about what decisions our Swedish battalion will make on an early morning a few months ahead (FICTIONAL!!) \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In September in eastern Mustoja near the border with Russia, our Swedish battalion is in defense together with a battalion of Estonian reserve infantry who have been assigned soft civilian vehicles and anti-tank weapons, 2 per group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have secured a German company of paratroopers as a rapid response force and have shared support with a French battalion, 20km south of us, of a self-propelled artillery company grouped southwest of our position. These are our own Archers, and we have conducted rigorous preparations with pre-logged targets. Even if the battalion were to retreat, the targets are 30km deep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is no close air support available, but we will have combat aircraft in the area \u2013 however, it is a brigade resource and not under our fire control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is clear that RU will launch an attack in the area the week before &#8211; two divisions with the support of several artillery brigades stationed in the regimental towns on the Russian side have started loading up, and it is suspected that officers are already present in the designated assembly areas &#8211; these units are supposed to defend the border against Ukraine, as Russia has repeatedly confirmed. There are attack helicopters and close air support at air bases that can reach the area, which seems to be getting ready, and drones are constantly buzzing over the Swedish battalion 24\/7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Orders have been issued not to provoke anything, and this also applies to the drones that are not to be shot down. The Swedish battalion has secretly conducted drone reconnaissance in the area even though they have strict orders not to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Western mobilization to the area is also restricted &#8211; to avoid provoking Russia, no more Western forces have been mobilized to the Baltic states since May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unexpectedly, it is the Prime Minister of Spain this time who repeatedly goes public and guarantees that Putin does not intend to start a war and that we should not provoke anything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trump remains silent, but Jeremy Corbyn from the UK Labour Party does the same as Spain and never misses an appearance on TV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unfortunately, the area is a national park and environmental activists have been very vigilant, so no mining was allowed, only trenches 70cm deep to avoid &#8220;damaging the earth.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There have been suspicions that the environmental activists who have been monitoring the area to ensure that the units do not violate the rules of the national park have reported what they saw to Russia, but no one has been apprehended.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the Russian side, it is also a national park, and that is why all officers are there \u2013 to inventory the rich wildlife of the national park, according to Russian spokespersons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The promised Swedish drone company (modeled after the Ukrainian one) has not arrived \u2013 they bought Chinese drones that got stuck in customs in Sweden with an overzealous customs chief, and apparently they will only be released on September 8th as the correct import documents were missing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The battalion had also been promised a company of Swedish coastal rangers as a rapid response force, but they were redirected to defend a port further along the coast instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The artillery company is hastily regrouped to Lithuania to support the international brigade as there is a massive buildup of forces at the Belarusian border. All officers in the international brigade are absolutely furious and threaten to leave Lithuania if they do not receive the resources they demand for protection while hiding in their deep bunkers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The German paratroopers are swiftly relocated for a coup defense to Tartu a week before, and a sense of being deprioritized spreads within the battalion \u2013 feeling like they will be the first to be sacrificed and not receive the resources they will reasonably need.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">3-4 days before, logistical functions start disappearing, depots explode, and patrols\/groups\/command posts fall silent all along the border, affecting the Swedes as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2 days before, communication with the Estonian infantry battalion located 10km away is cut off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The international brigade had contacted the Swedish battalion a few days earlier to expect a new order \u2013 then 2 days before, all communication with them is also cut off (electronic warfare is initiated).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Chief of the 1st Mechanized Battalion of Sweden sends messengers to both the Estonians and the international brigade, but they do not return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shortly after midnight on September 5th, a massive preparatory bombardment begins, and it turns out that the Russian drones have logged a concerning number of targets (or was it the environmental activists).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The battalion staff is hit by a FAB3000 bomb and buried alive, with two of the company command posts knocked out. They had three different assembly areas to move between, so RU FAB-bombed all three simultaneously with 5 FAB bombs at each assembly area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">70% of the day&#8217;s losses occur in this early morning preparatory bombardment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">30% of the battalion&#8217;s heavy vehicles are taken out by drones within a few hours \u2013 they were camouflaged in the forest but apparently were detected \u2013 later, the battalion realizes that they did not camouflage the tracks leading to where they were deployed, and since they were constantly moving, the tracks were too visible, so RU flew FPV drones horizontally along the tracks at all the different assembly areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During the late night, infiltrated Spetsnaz and reconnaissance units start hitting the battalion in various locations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Just after dawn, RU launches a first ground assault with three mechanized brigades to try to break the defense immediately, and mines were not allowed to be placed in the assembly area even though the battalion had secretly laid out close defense mines. There was a heated discussion where the battalion commander adamantly refused to violate the given order, but the company commanders made executive decisions in secret anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Apparently, the Russians had a good idea of where the mines were located and unloaded the infantry just before driving into the minefields. They probably used IR drones at dusk when the mines were heated during the day and clearly visible on the cameras.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now, what do you think the company commander who has been acting as the commander of the 1st Mechanized Battalion of Sweden since 01:00 does, where the deputy eagerly suggests that the order they never received should have been a regrouping to Tartu since they were already a week late with that rotation, so why disobey that order, it&#8217;s at least insubordination?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is very clear to everyone in the battalion that they will be overrun and heavily decimated in the coming days without being able to stop the advance \u2013 just by seeing the number of Russian vehicles in motion 30km from the border on the company drones before they are shot down one by one, and by looking around at the devastation from the night&#8217;s drone and FAB operations.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The number of severely wounded has skyrocketed, with horrifying scenes of torn body parts and death anxiety in every company.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We know what the Ukrainians did &#8211; they fell behind pyramids of cartridge cases in their positions in the first days. Units were decimated by 90% or more, but it stopped the Russians.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>&#8220;Do you think the Swedish battalion is ready to die in eastern Estonia?&#8221;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>&#8220;Do you think the battalion commander believes he has the right to make a decision that will guarantee the death of 90% of his battalion, for what exactly because there are no other units that will reach the area anyway and higher-ranking officers have actively undermined their defense in the weeks before it is clear.&#8221;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This decision must be made under similar circumstances &#8211; one feels abandoned, that one has not been given a fair chance to succeed, and that one&#8217;s death would not matter in the grand scheme of things. Soldiers&#8217; families cry in messages on Signal and beg them to think of the children and try to leave the area &#8211; because all of Sweden has understood through social media that RU has initiated acts of war, even the soldiers&#8217; families who have thrown themselves over the phones.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Orders have been issued not to have phones on, but after the pre-combat early morning, most still choose to send a recorded message on Signal to their families now that they understand that the war is over for them, and then they also receive the families&#8217; messages delivered.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Despite all this hesitation, all companies hold their firing positions and are overrun during the day. Russian perpetrators also do not take any prisoners, but there are very few who try to surrender. A platoon from the logistics unit manages to reach the area staff in Nedsaja and can report what the whole world already knows &#8211; that we are at war with Russia.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>One of the hardest things is trying to retreat when you are about to be overrun by red mechs, for that matter. Perhaps a little easier in the forest, but you have to try to slip out before it&#8217;s too late, and the orders will not come, and the order you have is to hold the position, so it is easy to wait too long.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Many units will be forced to make similar decisions this morning, and not all choose death like the Swedish battalion did, so the Russians can secure the area they have planned within a week and go on the defensive.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>There will be a huge debate in Sweden about the value of sacrificing a whole battalion for an outcome that was inevitable anyway, and further international efforts are blocked in parliamentary votes as soon as they come up &#8211; &#8220;we have already done our part&#8221; and &#8220;think of Sweden first, if we are attacked we need our units intact&#8221; are two recurring arguments, and the Prime Minister resigns for sacrificing the lives of 600 Swedes for nothing &#8211; that and &#8220;food price inflation.&#8221;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The same situation is happening in Spain, Portugal, UK, the Netherlands, and Belgium, all of which lost their sons and daughters this week in early September 2025.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This causes the EU and NATO to be completely paralyzed and never even reach a point where they can prepare to retake the area in eastern Estonia.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Trump constantly accuses the EU of provoking the war and consistently refuses to send a single soldier to Europe for something &#8220;many times worse than World War II and completely unnecessary.&#8221;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Too many countries refuse to participate, and the other countries use it as an excuse to do nothing, &#8220;if we are to do this, everyone must be involved &#8211; we are ready to participate, but the others are hindering it.&#8221;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Trump withdraws everything and announces that everything is needed for national defense &#8211; Panama has threatened them with war.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>A wave of bombings sweeps over Europe&#8217;s arms industry.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are you starting to see the upside for Russia here in September 2025?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are you starting to understand what Ukraine is doing for us?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are you beginning to understand what Trump is maneuvering us into?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If we do not have several brigades in eastern Balticum by early summer and if Ukraine has been forced into a longer ceasefire by Trump, this is reality.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>By the way, Trump will just shrug and say, &#8220;that&#8217;s for the EU to deal with, but if you want, you can buy weapons, LNG, and oil at 150% tariffs. I tried to give you peace, but you chose war.&#8221;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels,<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If you want a fun comment section that is really starting to pick up and is no longer just me talking it up on Bluesky &#8211; johanno1.se.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The comments are of high quality, I can promise you &#8211; you learn something new every day.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>I recommend everyone who still comments on Substack or Bluesky to switch over to that thread instead &#8211; then your grandchildren will read your historical archive and start liking you. I also don&#8217;t have time to respond there as I&#8217;m starting to get busy at work.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>On Substack, feel free to become paying subscribers, even those of you who already follow, and it&#8217;s great to see that some find it worth reading, see all the work put into this, and took the step to subscribe \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:ohanno1.se\">ohanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:substack.com\/@johanno1\">substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\">https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:embed {\"url\":\"https:\/\/swedishrescuers.se\/\",\"type\":\"wp-embed\",\"providerNameSlug\":\"swedish-rescuers\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-swedish-rescuers wp-block-embed-swedish-rescuers\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"VwgK5GeUfV\"><a href=\"https:\/\/swedishrescuers.se\/\">Start<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Start&#8221; &#8212; Swedish Rescuers\" src=\"https:\/\/swedishrescuers.se\/embed\/#?secret=eGBYs5TiUc#?secret=VwgK5GeUfV\" data-secret=\"VwgK5GeUfV\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<!-- \/wp:embed -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Then there are the Swedish rescuers, the ones I have been in contact with who work quietly and deliver supplies to Ukraine. You don&#8217;t see them constantly on social media because they are instead working to support Ukraine.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:separator {\"className\":\"is-style-wide\"} -->\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide\"\/>\n<!-- \/wp:separator -->\n\n<!-- wp:shortcode -->\n<div id=\"polls-3\" class=\"wp-polls\">\n\t\t<p style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Vill ni ha en ny Texteditor som t.ex. kan anv\u00e4nda bilder?<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"wp-polls-ans\"><ul class=\"wp-polls-ul\">\n\t\t<li>Ja, absolut! <br><small><i>32 votes - 42% of all voters, 41% of all selected options<\/i><\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 41%\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<li>Spelar ingen roll! <br><small><i>24 votes - 32% of all voters, 31% of all selected options<\/i><\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 31%\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<li>Ja, men inte p\u00e5 mobilen... <br><small><i>12 votes - 16% of all voters, 15% of all selected options<\/i><\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 15%\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<li>IT kan dra \u00e5t helvete! <br><small><i>7 votes - 9% of all voters, 9% of all selected options<\/i><\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 9%\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<li>Nej, usch och fy! <br><small><i>3 votes - 4% of all voters, 4% of all selected options<\/i><\/small><div class=\"pollbar\" style=\"width: 4%\"><\/div><\/li>\n\t\t<\/ul><p style=\"text-align: center\">Antal r\u00f6ster: <strong>76<\/strong><\/p><\/div>\n\t\t<input type=\"hidden\" id=\"poll_3_nonce\" name=\"wp-polls-nonce\" value=\"a0c38bc0ad\" \/>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"polls-3-loading\" class=\"wp-polls-loading\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-polls\/images\/loading.gif\" width=\"16\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Loading ...\" title=\"Loading ...\" class=\"wp-polls-image\" \/>&nbsp;Loading ...<\/div>\n\n<!-- \/wp:shortcode -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Don&#8217;t lose hope when it comes to Putin in a security guard uniform refusing to cease fire \u2013 RU wants [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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