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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nOn March 7, the first SALTINT revealed that the USA assisted RU with target acquisition, which turned out to be locating Starlink. Don’t forget that Musk no longer controls Starlink, the US military does.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On March 8, I dismissed the NK attack in Kursk as a nothing-burger and stuck to it for a few days \u2013 the reason being that the wedge was not threatening in any way \u2013 there was a maintenance road open and NK soldiers died in droves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since March 10, I saw that UA had retreated from Kursk and raised the question on johanno1.se and Bluesky – it was clear with the grouping of the units, might have changed a bit now maybe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time, Sirsky came out strong and said they wouldn’t retreat \u2013 the purpose was to protect the retreat, we know that now in hindsight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The LNG pipeline crawling went completely haywire for RU \u2013 so they lost 800 elite soldiers in this attempt to repeat Avdiivka \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n The wildest thing of all is that most of them inhaled dangerous gases in the tunnel and went and died \u2013 imagine if any other country in the world had killed 800 elite soldiers out of sheer incompetence, a big deal to say the least but not in Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n Here is my final analysis of Kursk and the likelihood that this is accurate is high \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump has refused to mention Kursk with a single word. Behind closed doors, Trump has demanded that UA leave Kursk because Russia demanded it. Easy to understand why, directly embarrassing for Putin there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Several things happened in one sweep \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n -The USA halted the information flow to Ukraine<\/p>\n\n\n\n -The USA halted all material deliveries, everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Ukraine suspected that RU could lock onto their starlinks in Kursk and combat them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -F-16 locked certain functions, probably so that RU could resume FAB bombing in Kursk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -More North Koreans, +3000, arrived in Kursk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -RU carried out long-planned attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Over a week, RU carried out two catastrophic but long-planned attacks on Kursk where they tried to repeat Avdiivka. Ukraine presumably knocked out a couple of thousand and had the situation under control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This coincides with the USA pulling the rug out from under Ukraine completely in the area, BUT it should not have had such a significant impact on the situation that Ukraine needed to leave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n RU also carried out one of the largest operations with robots that UA suddenly had a harder time defending against. The operation that had been planned for weeks came the day after the USA stopped all warning systems to Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine could have held Kursk and they should have opened more attack vectors into Russia already.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The reason they left Kursk was political and not military in my assessment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n RU thus got Kursk back completely free \u2013 Putin talked down the West (USA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n I have been waiting for months now for the next offensive into Russia \u2013 politically locked is my assessment there as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump sticks to his style and doesn’t change much about Biden’s red cards… I am quite disappointed but there is another dimension to this 5D chess that Trump is supposed to play to save the world according to some (still).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Between trying to oust Zelensky and force a re-election, he has also ensured that Ukraine suffers another “defeat” on the battlefield and Zelensky is solely responsible for Kursk as it was a political offensive to begin with that the command was lukewarm about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Zelensky has always been clear that it was a negotiating card in future talks but Trump has refused to play fair and simply killed that card.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is something that RU’s subversive activities will drive in their eternal attempts to oust Zelensky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump is actively trying to undermine Zelensky \u2013 it is quite clear to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now, I may be naive, but I have felt that the EU should break away from this and fully support Ukraine. Macron and Starmer did it halfway and their ceasefire that didn’t apply on the ground was not approved \ud83d\ude0a<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the USA, and China have now started to make deals with Ukraine but the EU is conspicuously absent. Ukraine is forced to give away pieces of its land to get the support they need. If the EU had stepped in and given everything, Ukraine would have also turned to us in the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So how do our leaders feel today when Ukraine left Kursk?<\/p>\n\n\n\n I don’t know because no one mentions it, just like Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One becomes depressed by the TOTAL disregard the West has shown in this war actually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n Now onto the next item on the agenda \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine has approved a 30-day ceasefire across the entire area and it will be extended if both parties agree, as confirmed yesterday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In my opinion, Ukraine has also fulfilled its part of the agreement and left Kursk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And the USA has promised to resume all support and confirmed that it has done so. If they blatantly lie, we will know this within two weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia immediately refused (of course) and I saw this as cleverly negotiated by Ukraine because now the ball is in Putin-Trump’s court.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And we know that Russia will break this immediately because they cannot control all front commanders, impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But…<\/p>\n\n\n\n How did Trump handle Kursk?<\/p>\n\n\n\n So how will he handle the ceasefire and ensuring it is followed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n He will ignore all RU violations of the ceasefire and then if Ukraine fires a single shot over the line, he will immediately threaten to withdraw all support \u2013 my guess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So it’s not advantageous for Ukraine at all now because this is rigged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Which ultimately disadvantages the EU \u2013 VERY poorly negotiated by the EU here, extremely poorly \u2013 assuming that we in the EU are not playing 5D chess that I don’t understand yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For me, it looks like this now \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Trump undermines Zelensky so the risk is high that we will have political chaos in Ukraine. Ultimately, a crashed Ukraine would mean that we no longer have them as a buffer against Russia, that Putin can position the entire army against the EU border, and that a million unemployed UA soldiers become the EU’s new unstoppable mafia as a thank you for not supporting them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The latter will also be maximally exploited in RU’s subversive activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So, high risk, and the question is whether the EU is even working with a risk list at all here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The downside for the USA is zero \u2013 they want a Russia that doesn’t crash and if the EU gets a cold war, we are preoccupied with that in the EU and controllable, and the USA will sell weapons, LNG, and oil to us at inflated prices for another 70 years. It’s almost preferable for the USA actually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Trump can also throw in being the first back and snatch a huge amount of trade deals with Russia before the EU, it’s also advantageous for the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n -Then I have been warning for a while that in September 2025, it will hit the EU, provided that Russia has the Ukraine war under control – what do you think a ceasefire means for Putin in terms of having the Ukraine war under control?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now RU will carry out an extremely violent subversive activity in Ukraine where they will try to prevent the country from restarting offensive operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And then it IS difficult when RU has had a month to consolidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The northern front will be fortified by North Koreans to a large extent now that Kursk has been returned, and RU will then release over 60,000 of its better units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We are still waiting for the other 70,000 in NK 11th AC, and they will now arrive when there is no longer any risk of death – they are not in Ukraine, so politically not such a hot potato, and they will be an effective block for future Kursk offensives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Additionally, Trump + Putin will sell it as a peacekeeping force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In September 2025, it is Zapad 2025 which will be just under 13,000, so no international observers are needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n RU has now released 60,000 from Kursk and according to UA, they have a strategic reserve of 150,000 in two army corps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Most of the new equipment has gone to these army corps, and they are trained by veterans from the war in Ukraine who have work experience of the 2025 warfare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This year’s little Russian project is to challenge NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do you know why we know that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Because Russia says it, Ukraine says it, and several countries in the EU have raised their alert levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I laid out the entire battle plan here a few days ago, but now an enormous subversive activity will roll out over Europe to begin with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We are now in the middle of March, and by September at the latest, a Russian attack over the border will occur somewhere in the Baltics, the purpose is to take a few tens of kilometers, park defensively, and wait for a NATO\/EU response.<\/p>\n\n\n\n NATO will not act – I can GUARANTEE you that Trump will not send troops to retake territory in eastern Estonia, 100% sure of that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So we in the EU now have, if Ukraine does not continue its offensive operations, two very bad choices, one of which must be decided –<\/p>\n\n\n\n -to defend in eastern Baltics and wait for a Russian attack on us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -decide to retake territory in the Baltics if we have been too slow and RU managed to snatch it from under our noses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n IN a few months, we will see if Europe’s sons and daughters are ready to die in eastern Baltics, because die they will do in large numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The least bad option would be if RU feels that the threshold is too high and chooses to only send an absolute cloud of indirect capabilities over the units in the east, but what is the likelihood that we will have over 40,000 in defense in the CURRENT ATTACK AREA by September – how big is it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The border of the Baltics with RU and Belarus is longer than what UA has to defend today, and you know as well as I do that half a million barely cut it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Balts have STARTED building their mine lines against RU… they started in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Therefore, there is a high probability that an area RU chooses to attack is defended by a reduced brigade at best, and then they will have 150,000 + 60,000 Russians against them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This reduced brigade has not participated in the 2025 war at all but has had time to prepare defensively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n FAB, artillery, and drones will rain down on them, and then RU will carry out the type of attack that has been difficult for UA to handle with infiltration and “swarming” (yes, a military term).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yes, the EU must know this now, and we should have about thirty brigades on their way to the Baltics right now, but we don’t, so the risk is very real.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Throughout the EU, brigades should already be in training with UA instructors, but they are not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Estonia is perhaps the easiest to defend of all three, so if I had to guess, they will strike to the north or south of the Estonia-Latvia border.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Lithuania, the EU brigades will be stationed because that is what Poland will demand. The entire Belarusian defense force + North Koreans and possibly Chinese will be deployed along the border with Poland and Lithuania – mark my words.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then secondary RU units will be stationed along the border with Finland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Both countries will not be able to spare troops, and the EU will have to waste brigades in Lithuania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then they will try to advance until they hold dominant terrain if they can, and then they will go on the defensive, assuming the defense does not completely collapse, but they have burned themselves a bit in eastern Ukraine and should be cautious about bringing their dress uniforms and booking tables at all restaurants in Vilnius this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Actually, the area below would not be a bad choice for this little NATO test, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Forest, good defensive terrain, and can attack from three directions – as I said, September 2025…<\/p>\n\n\n\n So infinitely fun that the area has been a nature reserve since 1998 – surely not allowed to be mined or anything \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n I can’t find any information about the area, but it wouldn’t surprise me if environmental movements in the West have been instrumental in protecting the frogs – it would be fun if that could be confirmed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There you have the area where NATO will be tested in 2025, what name have those Russian devils given the operation?<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have never been this close to the situation spiraling out of control, and at least I am very curious about what China will do in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n By now, you know my view on things since around 2022 – Russia must be turned inward, and all agencies must start fighting each other for power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Only then can we truly achieve peace in our time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump is actively working against us reaching that point, and many did so in 2022-2023 when I aired my thoughts on the matter – it wasn’t quite socially acceptable to want that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And up until 2025, the EU leaders have also seen it as a less favorable option. When Lukashenko proudly declared that the CIA and MI6 congratulated him on thwarting the Vodka run, one becomes tearful. It is, of course, true and not something we should hear, but in line with how the West perceived the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Until at least quite recently, EU leaders believed that the worst that could happen would be for Ukraine to be forced to the negotiating table and then eternal peace would follow, at least until late autumn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One last point – for those of you who believe that Ukraine is now quickly moving its brigades inside the circle faster than RU outside the circle and striking immediately – what do you think the 30-day ceasefire is for? Trump has thought of everything, and the only thing is if Putin completely deviates from the script, perhaps?<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is just as rigged today as it was in 2022 – 2023, and it’s time for the EU to stand up now because soon we will be left holding the whole mess, and the USA will be laughing at us.<\/p>\n\n\n However, there are early signs that Trump might lead the USA out of this on top – Canada gave up, Zelensky gave up, Putin will play along, China might stay on the sidelines, and the price of eggs has dropped in the USA?<\/p>\n\n\n\n It seems like we are just months away from a cold war, which will greatly benefit the USA at the expense of the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n My hope now lies in Ukraine actually starting to carry out offensive operations seriously until there is some form of ceasefire, but it COULD absolutely be that Trump has already anticipated it and preemptively said no to it, we’ll see…<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you want a fun comment section that is really picking up steam and is no longer just me talking it up on Bluesky – johanno1.se.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The level of comments is high, I can promise you – you learn something new every day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I recommend everyone who still comments on Substack or Bluesky to switch over to that thread instead – then your grandchildren will read your historical archive and start liking you. I also don’t have time to respond there as I’m starting to get busy at work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack, feel free to become paying subscribers, even those of you who already follow, and it’s great to see that some find it worth reading, appreciate all the work put into this, and took the step to subscribe \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n ohanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n