Initially, there was some scattered information from Saudi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But then a much more concrete offer came here, which was a joint statement from the USA – UA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I don’t have the fine print, but UA agrees to a 30-day ceasefire in exchange for the USA resuming direct lethal aid deliveries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It seems like the USA has done it, and now the USA is supposed to go to Putin, and he agrees to this 30-day ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n There is a lot going on quietly in Ukraine right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have continuously described the local counterattacks\/offensives, and they are still going well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For me, it is clear that the USA \u2013 RU have a deal regarding Kursk, that the USA is doing everything they can to help RU, and that RU is trying to retake the area before negotiations start. Perhaps it is even to the extent that the USA is waiting to call RU for negotiations until Kursk is retaken?<\/p>\n\n\n\n It wouldn’t surprise me if the disabled functions on the F-16 also applied in Kursk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine is keeping quiet, but this is very sad…<\/p>\n\n\n\n This has happened before \u2013 VDV in Kherson, revealing Ukraine’s battle plans, forcing Ukraine to attack in unfavorable places, stopping them from attacking into Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Equipment was stopped when it was needed most, it couldn’t be used effectively, and Ukraine couldn’t engage targets inside Russia and in certain sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n European countries were prevented from sending certain types of equipment, and Storm Shadow had its mapping service stopped when Europe wanted to allow its use into Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – all of this before our good Trump and all confirmed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n What does this really tell us?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Well, first of all, it’s another attempt to slow down Ukraine when things are going too well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And secondly, RU is now worried because Trump has come out very strongly with his ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The difference from the Biden administration is that the EU and UA seem to be breaking with the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The reason for this is that RU will invade the EU by September this year, provided that the Ukraine war is manageable for Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n EU could only kick the can down the road until now, probably each country’s Chiefs of Staff have warned our politicians as sharply as possible that we have a few months before this escalates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As in every war, there is a point where no one can control the situation anymore and everything spirals out of control \u2013 we are not there yet, but we are on our way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine is not foolish \u2013 they understand that they MUST expel Russia from Ukraine themselves, and what they get is material support and possibly some kind of air\/ground umbrella over western Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n RU is at a low point NOW, not at the end of the year or next year, now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n UA currently has full drone superiority, RU artillery is suppressed, and FABs are halted \u2013 in six months, this will be rectified by RU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now we have the mud season approaching, according to a comment on the excellent johanno1.se comment section, so we are soon facing thaw and rain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This will last for a month or so, and considering that UA is already severely disrupting maintenance today, it will be critical on most fronts during this period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n RU has already managed to widen Pokrovsk, but we discussed earlier before they took Khakove that RU had two supply routes into the bulge of Pokrovsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Today, the entire area is cut off from supplies as UA drones now go 20km in from the front and cover everything like a wet blanket, and UA has millions of drones to use \u2013 so no shortage, therefore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you go back to the 2022 posts, all of this has already been described in detail about how it would play out, and the only difference today from then is that we know the USA has played extremely dirty here \u2013 I probably underestimated it if we go back and read.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And that the EU has finally understood that if Ukraine falls, we will be left holding the bag \u2013 we wrote that in frustration over the EU not understanding it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia has already shifted to a war economy \u2013 they have time until they run out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The EU manages this through a peace economy and can thus keep going forever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The fact that the USA has backed out of the whole spectacle is not decisive in any way, nor is the fact that they are now helping Russia, again… the only ones who will lose from this are the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Scenarios like the USA fighting on Russia’s side can be forgotten \u2013 we have said this repeatedly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yes, it’s sad that the hope for a change after three years of wandering with the USA has now been dashed, but UA can handle this provided that we in the EU do our part. And the USA, Trump, Elon, et al will face consequences as instant karma is real.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The BIG question mark and what could have a decisive impact here is actually China. They have already been hit with 10% tariffs by the USA, if I understand this correctly, so it feels a bit like the USA is treating them like the EU right now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine now has a trade agreement for grain with China, recently signed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And then China has expressed positivity in terms of peace talks, BUT that it must be with the EU and Ukraine. So, the opposite of the track that Trump is pursuing with Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And below is something very significant \u2013 a UA positive report on Chinese TV. Do NOT underestimate this at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As is well known, my guess is that China will try to squeeze into the vacuum the USA leaves behind. They will try to improve relations with the EU, they will try to marginalize the USA, they will go hard with Ukraine in hopes of securing contracts and a platform close to the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Only upside for China here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The whole idea that China will take over eastern Russia \u2013 if they were going to do that, don’t you think they would have done it anyway?<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is a bit of Russian psyops in that, just like with the nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And just like with “if Russia collapses, it will be Armageddon for Europe.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n For each of these threats, the solution presented is that all current and future problems will be solved by letting Russia peacefully annex Ukraine and then there will be peace in our time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I have a post in progress about RU’s subversive activities, but for those who don’t want to believe me when I write that all evil comes from Russia, even in Sweden, it should be enough to see the USA here almost to understand what a veritable force of nature Russian subversive activities are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This one from Dugin echoes the Cold War, he has memorized the playbook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Democracies are by definition vulnerable when dealing with these types of dictatorships, and the risk is always that in their attempts to counter, they themselves cross the line towards dictatorship. We are also slow to start, but once we get going, unbeatable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Today in Sweden, we add a parameter on top of this – the threat of gangs against people’s families.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since the police today are essentially incapable and organized crime is light-years ahead (yes, they are – they have managed to infiltrate the police), a scenario is that individuals who are supposed to make decisions, the right individuals preferably further down the chain, receive a visit from two guys on a Friday night or they buddy up with the kids when they leave school.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then you have an option – 10 million SEK into the wife’s company as a consulting fee or dead children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Many choose option one and stay silent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n S\u00c4PO has repeatedly warned about this now so many times that no one reading this should doubt anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then you have my own theory about why our leaders tiptoe around Putin – it’s not the bribes and it’s not the threat of war, it’s the subversive activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We saw it with Macron in January 2024 when he came out strong against Russia as the first president, he faced huge demonstrations from the left, right, and Islamists, a new election, potential crisis, and a violent social media campaign against him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The same happened to Kier Starmer when he wanted to give Storm Shadow and also the fun fact that he got his wardrobe from a billionaire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The problem you face when going against Putin is that your darkest secrets end up in the newspapers, risking your career being crushed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Criminal gangs will try to pressure you, and they will try to target your family.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then you will definitely face political chaos from the right, left, and Islamists, all controlled by Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Western leaders have been reluctant to do what is necessary here, and Ukraine has suffered greatly unnecessarily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In a whole year of war, everything that seemed impossible happened, every time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is something no one will want to talk about because it shows that our leaders are afraid and weak, but it should be brought to light and thoroughly cleansed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then we should go back to the Cold War thinking about threats to national security – “follow the money” isn’t a bad idea, and most importantly, the easiest way to launder money is straight into a limited company as a consulting fee, not in your name but in your partner’s. The tax authorities just want the taxes, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The line is thin – having an opinion is one thing, but getting paid to destabilize a country is a crime that currently doesn’t lead to much but causes enormous harm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia is already labeled as a “sponsor of state terrorism,” so it SHOULD be very easy to apply anti-terrorism laws to all of this, but it’s not being done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then the current government wants to tighten the rules for various crimes involving criminal gangs, but since it’s not limited to criminal gangs, it will, as usual, result in laws that will be applied to ordinary tax-paying citizens. They say you should never miss a good crisis, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Anti-terrorism legislation is quite good – increased powers, clear, harsh penalties, and all that is needed is to vote on declaring a certain country a “state sponsor of terrorism” so all connections with that country or organization become illegal and fall under anti-terrorism laws.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yes, we don’t want to go back to McCarthyism or our Cold War era where “communists” (everyone who wasn’t far-right) had their careers completely destroyed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But it is possible to clearly limit this and expose those who are paid by Russia to do their bidding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is crucial that our politicians pursue policies for the majority society (the nurturing group regardless of ethnicity) so they are politically secure and don’t risk being brought down when Russia’s subversive activities intensify.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia’s subversive activities identify cracks in society where the cohesion is a bit loose, and the fact that Russia has been able to create these cracks undisturbed is of course a bit sad, but that’s where we are now, and then their whole machinery starts running to get the strongest possible effect out of this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Quran burnings had Russian fingerprints, in Germany they burned cars and painted slogans from Die Grune, and in France swastikas on Jewish facilities – EXACTLY like during the Cold War where the neo-Nazis in Germany were Russian agents with felt-tip pens running around drawing swastikas everywhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Criminal gangs are paid by foreign powers to carry out all sorts of activities – unfortunately, this is somewhat new and combined with our police being in decline and them already having infiltrated civil society on a large scale, this is a threat to national security that is not yet taken seriously. SVT continues to play gangster rap and finds it cool even when the artists kill each other a few times a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The problem is not the gangs but the criminal clans that have a broader loyalty group where individuals are lawyers, doctors, police officers, or public officials – they are camouflaged chameleons who operate in positions of responsibility in civil society but are activated when needed to carry out specific missions. They cannot be exposed as they have no criminal record, and it is difficult to detect when they commit crimes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n During the Cold War, Russia had to try to embed spies in rings with new identities and a huge buildup phase. It was probably 3-4 in a ring helping each other up in society, and they surprisingly got far when they gave each other a boost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Later in the late Cold War, we had the “march through the institutions” which probably still applies to some extent today, where we have “activists” in positions of responsibility. For example, the police are completely crazy about lawyers always finding reasons to acquit criminals – do you think Russia thinks it’s a good idea to acquit as many as possible?<\/p>\n\n\n\n And now Russia has probably focused on the gangs and the criminal clans and provided them with “know-how” in exchange for working for them. I found the widespread “honey traps” set up by gangs for female prison officers quite exciting and something they hadn’t thought of themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So today, Russia has essentially its infiltrated spy network in Sweden again, but this time with local talents and much easier to implement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One could guess that all these campaigns to hire with broader recruitment everywhere were aimed at the criminal clans starting to place their personnel in civil society, for example?<\/p>\n\n\n\n A noble purpose used by Russia for a not so noble purpose?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Consider that criminal clans have broader recruitment on their side, so their candidates are more attractive, they are unscrupulous, and they have Russia’s “know-how” backing them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do you think they manage to outmaneuver other applicants for positions through various means nowadays, where the final resort is to threaten the rival so they decline the job if necessary?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Once again – do not underestimate what Russia is up to here, and this is EXACTLY how they operated during the Cold War, infiltrating everywhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The ring from Cambridge that rose as a spear in the British administration, for example, do you think that was an isolated case?<\/p>\n\n\n Why am I nagging about this now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Well, because in September it will hit the fan and our governments must start making tough decisions from today onwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And Russian subversive activities have already gone into overdrive today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you want to influence a decision with a small majority, all you need to do is reach 1-2 of our members of parliament, preferably some invisible poor soul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In civil society, you sabotage across the board \u2013 I think the Russian roll-on\/roll-off port in Gotland is excellent in hindsight and that we shouldn’t have cement production in Sweden is another gem \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n The fact that we have shut down 6 nuclear reactors just when we will need electricity-intensive defense industry is of course unfortunate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And it never ends with all the plots Russian interests buy near our protected sites \u2013 does anyone keep track of individuals on the periphery of the criminal clans and what they are buying up?<\/p>\n\n\n\n In case of war, do you think the gangs will become our modern-day Spetsnaz with tasks to combat politicians, police, and high-ranking individuals in civil society?<\/p>\n\n\n\n And then the deputy of the murdered person is from a criminal clan?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Today, Russia has the opportunity to throw a wrench in the works that they couldn’t achieve during the Cold War \u2013 they have completely camouflaged contacts throughout civil society \u2013 how high up is difficult to know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Today, they have managed to pacify the USA in a way they couldn’t during the Cold War.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And they have succeeded a bit too well in controlling the EU, but we are on the verge of shaking off the shackles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The only thing we can be sure of is that there will be more extensive testing of NATO as RU needs subversive activities on a scale beyond what we have seen so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And the other alternative is that Russia loses in a fair war in Ukraine and the country turns inward\/collapses. Then all agencies will start fighting each other instead and vie for power, and calm will settle over the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I know what I want, and I have wanted this since 2022, throughout that year and even into 2023 it was frowned upon in “the other thread” to have that opinion \u2013 many opposing views.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That is the only thing that would solve this neatly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine wants this, but the EU and the USA have prevented a full-blown war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you liked the post, please share it on your channels,<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you want a fun comment section that is really picking up steam and is no longer just me hyping it on Bluesky\u2013 johanno1.se.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I recommend everyone who still comments on Substack or Bluesky to switch over to that thread instead – then your grandchildren will read your historical archive and start liking you. I also don’t have time to respond there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack, feel free to become paying subscribers, even those of you who already follow, and it’s great to see that some find it worth reading, appreciate all the work put into this, and took the step to subscribe \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n ohanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F941472f7-2900-40af-994e-01322231d5de_754x625.png\")
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