{"id":1427,"date":"2025-03-06T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-06T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-march-6-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-25T17:52:20","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T15:52:20","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-march-6-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-march-6-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update March 6, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It seems we are over the power crisis this time, and last winter it was the Baltics that disconnected from RU, so the damn Russians are becoming increasingly isolated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is VERY difficult now to unravel all the twists and turns around Trump, but it SEEMS like he has ordered a complete halt to everything going to Ukraine, orders, contracts, in the air and in the depot in Poland \u2013 however, I don&#8217;t dare to jump on this yet because it is RUMINT at its best.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the biggest injustices in this war is when Trump goes off saying &#8220;this war will go on forever, no side can win.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2022, Ukraine could have settled this with VDV in Kherson but was not allowed to, in 2023 they could have invaded Russia but were not allowed, and only in 2024 were they allowed to seriously combat the oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Western weapons were not allowed to be used across borders at all, and Russian volunteers crossing the border with FN FAL as a personal weapon generated a diplomatic protest from Belgium in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most of this was the USA \u2013 they also revealed Ukraine&#8217;s offensive plans to Russia in 2023, forced them to attack in the most fortified area, according to NATO doctrine, and stopped delivering supplies as thanks for the completed offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Putin has been on artificial respiration from the West since the summer of 2022 \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is among other things that make me convinced that Trump has an agenda because otherwise, he could have also seen that Ukraine could win in half a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fastest way to peace is if Russia gives up, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I didn&#8217;t feel it was worth putting anything together before Trump &#8220;revealed everything&#8221; in his speech, and then it would be too late for me to adjust \u2013 time difference and all that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s completely hopeless with his statements right now, and it hasn&#8217;t escaped anyone that he slapped tariffs on Canada, 25%. And then a bit later they are supposed to be removed the day after.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A little history lesson \u2013 this is exactly how The Great Depression started, tariffs upon tariffs until everything collapsed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The speech was the century&#8217;s nothing-burger, and my worries were greatly put to shame.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Did Zelensky&#8217;s &#8220;apology letter&#8221; influence Trump&#8217;s speech \u2013 who knows \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Zelensky made sure to send it (post it on X) before Trump&#8217;s speech in any case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now Zelensky is going to the USA again, but this time with Starmer and King-Macron. Zelensky has written his &#8220;apology letter&#8221; to Trump, according to Trump, but of course, it wasn&#8217;t that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The &#8220;mineral deal&#8221; is a poorly written statement of intent with no real commitments for Ukraine, so risk-free.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And Zelensky has come up with a counteroffer, which perhaps is Starmer&#8217;s and Macron&#8217;s counteroffer with Zelensky&#8217;s input \u2013 &#8220;a one-month ceasefire in the AIR and on the WATER.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The quick-witted immediately realize that it doesn&#8217;t affect UA&#8217;s ground offensive at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then the question is, what does AIR encompass, drones, FAB, artillery?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Presumably, no robots, no strategic drones, and no aircraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia will not be able to sustain this for more than a few days, and since such things are seen on radar, this is essentially a trap for Russia, so there is a low probability that Trump thinks this is a good idea, but we&#8217;ll see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, it is a good strategy by the West to try to push this back onto Russia now, and by Zelensky promising to sign the mineral deal, apologizing to Trump, and making the first hard offer regarding a ceasefire, this SHOULD now be back to Trump\/Putin, and Trump SHOULD accept this. Because those are the points he actually set as his criteria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But now this is Trump, and anything can really happen, the man is completely shameless and never further away than a mid-morning coffee from betraying his own mother for a few pesos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump HAS managed to harm Ukraine, the parliament has written a letter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc558298f-3d60-4ba1-ac33-5832ff3ba7da_738x864.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc558298f-3d60-4ba1-ac33-5832ff3ba7da_738x864.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:462px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>There have been attempts at a vote of no confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And Zelensky has really changed his tone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee3faf3d-7fbe-4f58-9896-492262d2c6a3_604x867.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee3faf3d-7fbe-4f58-9896-492262d2c6a3_604x867.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:366px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If you&#8217;re like me, a bit older, you know that it gets easier with age to swallow humiliation and play your role, but I think this was a real struggle for Zelensky. Trump is really dragging the country of Ukraine through the mud right now in the worst way. He should get the Nobel Prize just for not knocking out JD Vance in the meeting \u2013 self-control like a Zen monk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Very clever of Ukraine though \u2013 don&#8217;t apologize but agree to a ceasefire if it&#8217;s in the air and water, and sign any damn statement of intent, blank paper is fine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What do you think is central to everything Trump is doing right now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Well \u2013 Trump needs to stop Ukraine on the ground because that&#8217;s where Putin is getting hurt right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If there&#8217;s one thing Putin should absolutely demand from Trump, it&#8217;s that Ukraine doesn&#8217;t continue to attack as they are doing now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the contrary, Starmer and Macron have met Ukraine halfway and only stop things that don&#8217;t disrupt their offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A common thread in the past two weeks is that the USA has been very tough on Ukraine and not at all on Russia. A legitimate peace negotiator would reasonably try to find some kind of balance, but we have probably accepted on some level that Trump is not a legitimate peace negotiator and actively favors Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have long established that the USA is not our friend, and now probably 40 million Ukrainians feel that the USA is not their friend either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Biden was doing the same scolding, just not in front of the cameras, he tried to balance it a bit more elegantly. Zelensky used to look quite battered after his meetings with Biden, and the NATO meeting in 2023 was a low point \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Sweden, we learned back in the 80s and 90s not to blame the victims in that huge discussion about women&#8217;s clothing and alcohol consumption being mitigating circumstances for rape, and we got it right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then things got a bit twisted when trying to explain the reasons for certain new groups&#8217; rapes and that one should then understand that certain behaviors and styles of dress in women invite it, and that it should be a mitigating circumstance \u2013 but we&#8217;ll solve this eventually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Anyway \u2013 the world hasn&#8217;t made that journey twice yet, and Ukraine is constantly blamed while the perpetrator Putin is peppered with mitigating circumstances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But what the USA is doing now &#8211; does it benefit the USA as a country?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because that&#8217;s what it should do, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I see the following downsides with the USA&#8217;s actions, and I&#8217;m not an economist but a civil engineer in the port industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-The US defense industry will not be able to sell anything to the EU\/West. Threats to ban the use of US weapons have already been made by representatives and have not gone unnoticed by the West. Previously, Biden stopped F-16s, Abrams, and Gripens, for example, so nothing new but much more openly and threatening now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-The USA will face higher inflation from punitive tariffs on imports \u2013 25% directly to the customer. Yes, Trump envisions that manufacturers in the USA will then be able to sell cheaper, but is everything really manufactured in the USA so there are substitutes?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>-The USA will have difficulty selling its products when counter-tariffs are introduced because their products will become 25% more expensive, and the EU and China have substitutes.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>-The USA is losing its influence in the West\/EU; no one is listening or caring anymore.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>-The USA is losing an important market in Ukraine. Ukraine, after all, could have traded those $500 billion worth of metals to kick out Russia any day and then given the USA a lot of reconstruction contracts, which countries like Turkey will now receive, and most likely also China.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>-China is getting closer to the EU.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>-China is gaining influence in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>To be honest, I only see downsides for the USA as a country here.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If we take the reasoning further &#8211; even if the USA completely disregards the EU and Ukraine, the constant mantra is still &#8220;America First.&#8221; Is the USA really putting itself first here, doing what is best for the USA?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>So the &#8220;negotiation&#8221; that Trump is currently carrying out, if it doesn&#8217;t benefit the USA &#8211; then who does it benefit?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Russia has already lost the war because the EU has taken the lead, provided that the USA does not actively prevent the EU from acting, but that line has not been crossed yet.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If this was a simple attempt by Trump to save Russia, it has clearly failed, and I think everyone understands that.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Are there even any theories that Trump is trying to benefit China here \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Also, I want to point out one more thing \u2013<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Representatives in the USA are now strongly criticizing the EU for trying to fill the void.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Russia and China also want to fill the void; does the USA strongly oppose them?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The US foreign policy has truly made a 180-degree turn.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>I also think that the US Military-Industrial Complex and defense force smell just as much of a scam as Russia. They spend obscene amounts on equipment and troops but do not have the defense force they should have on paper at all. Then the costs for a missile, artillery shell, and other things are orders of magnitude higher than for Ukraine, China, Russia, and now even the EU \u2013 mostly a big scam.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>I&#8217;m starting to come to the end with the USA here, but it&#8217;s very difficult not to get back into it because of what Trump is constantly doing. I have several posts in progress, but I always get stuck in this.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This is probably the funniest thing the Brits have come up with since sliced bread \u2013 Trump&#8217;s state visit has been downgraded to a lunch with Prince Andrew \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Rumor or not, it is said that Trump will meet Putin in &#8220;a few weeks.&#8221;<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Now it&#8217;s rumored that Macron is taking the lead, King-Macron, and that he is preparing a sensible peace proposal.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We&#8217;ll see, but isn&#8217;t it significant that all three are going to the USA?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Macron and Starmer are backing up their buddy Zelensky, maybe not the toughest guys in the class, but the ones you want on your side right now.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels,<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If you want to have a fun comment section that is really picking up and is no longer just me talking about it on Bluesky\u2013 johanno1.se. I recommend everyone who still comments on Substack or on Bluesky to comment in that thread instead; then your grandchildren will read your historical archive and start liking you.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>On Substack, you are very welcome to become paying subscribers, and it&#8217;s great to see that some find it worth reading, appreciating all the work put into this and taking the step to subscribe \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>For all of you already following the site \u2013 don&#8217;t forget that a paid subscription is just a click away.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:ohanno1.se\">ohanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:substack.com\/@johanno1\">substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\">https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>And when you have subscribed to Substack, it&#8217;s the Swedish rescuers, those I have been in contact with who quietly continue to deliver supplies to Ukraine. You don&#8217;t see them constantly on social media where they advertise a lot because they are working instead to support Ukraine.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:embed {\"url\":\"https:\/\/swedishrescuers.se\/\",\"type\":\"wp-embed\",\"providerNameSlug\":\"swedish-rescuers\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-swedish-rescuers wp-block-embed-swedish-rescuers\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"v0eaiGkZPL\"><a href=\"https:\/\/swedishrescuers.se\/\">Start<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Start&#8221; &#8212; Swedish Rescuers\" src=\"https:\/\/swedishrescuers.se\/embed\/#?secret=4Er1aj4Bqv#?secret=v0eaiGkZPL\" data-secret=\"v0eaiGkZPL\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<!-- \/wp:embed -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It seems we are over the power crisis this time, and last winter it was the Baltics that disconnected from [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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