As known, I wanted one of two reactions below, but then I hit the gongs prematurely and delivered my final analysis a couple of posts back \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Trump leans back satisfied with an applause that the EU is finally taking responsibility in the Ukraine war and will be leading from now on. After all, that’s exactly what he’s been asking the EU to do all along, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Trump calls the EU warmongers and that they do not want peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now we got the second option, and with a vengeance \u2013 Trump and his administration are practically spewing statements that Zelensky is a warmonger who does not want peace, and Elon even mentions the children that Ukraine now wants to kill in the worst way \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n I will not change my mind \u2013 Trump and Putin are a homogeneous party in the negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Because what was the argument in the Oval Office about?<\/p>\n\n\n\n That Zelensky did not want an immediate ceasefire before everything else started in terms of negotiations. Trump’s whole game here was an immediate ceasefire ordered by Putin, everything else was just smoke. In hindsight, he seems more and more annoyed that he doesn’t get an immediate ceasefire in his statements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n (Now we know that Putin DESPERATELY needs this…).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now we know this and it is indisputable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n RUMINT was that Trump tried to cancel the meeting with Zelensky, who went there anyway, apparently did not get the meeting cancellation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The next rumor circulating now is that Zelensky was asked to just take the crap and keep a good face, but he had the audacity to be honest instead (I added the last part of course).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Previously, we knew that “Ukraine can continue to fight” \u2013 we had that on film from Trump as long as they signed the “agreement,” which was a poorly written opinion declaration at best.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But Trump has obviously been working all along towards a ceasefire – now we know that. It was supposed to come immediately so negotiations could begin. A classic Russian trick that we already know, and all they are doing is using the water break for round two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So it was basically Chamberlain straight up but with a purpose and hidden agenda \u2013 to benefit Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Apparently Trump is also extending the sanctions against Russia for another year, maybe to add some nuance \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n But threats have already been made that Trump will cut off all sorts of support to Ukraine as revenge, and that they will leave NATO and all troops will leave Europe. Don’t know what has been implemented and what is Russian psyops in that mess…<\/p>\n\n\n\n For me, it is indisputable that Trump intended to humiliate Zelensky and provoke a negative reaction. Already at the handshake on the stairs, he starts talking down Zelensky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And the reporter who mocked him for not wearing a suit was Marjorie Taylor Greene’s boyfriend \u2013 also prepared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do you ever see Elon Musk in a suit in the White House? Do India’s Modi or Saudi’s Bin Salman usually wear suits?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Elon runs around with a darn chainsaw and often has his son on his shoulders in the Oval Office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now we all feel that it was unfair, but everything was for a purpose \u2013 Trump is doing Putin’s bidding and this was highly intentional, nothing is unfair, it was designed to go this way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you have read these posts, you know my final analysis of Trump that I chose to post before we got confirmation that Putin \u2013 Trump are ONE party in these discussions, a homogeneous party that has open communication all the time. The side that still claims that Trump is negotiating smart doesn’t have much to go on anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One was an immediate ceasefire that Putin has ordered because he needs it \u2013 if they could force Ukraine into it, everything would be won for Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The other purpose of this meeting, since the EU has now risen as one and Trump got slapped by Macron, was that he wanted to come out harder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Partly to look strong himself so he was unworthy towards Kier Starmer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But…<\/p>\n\n\n\n The other hidden purpose of this meeting was to provoke a negative reaction from Zelensky so he would lose support from the international community, and the EU would turn its back on him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They simply set a trap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It worked at the NATO meeting in 2023 where the entire West called Zelensky ungrateful, and in September 2024 it also worked to talk down Zelensky harshly \u2013 both Trump and Biden behaved abominably.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Biden has behaved like this before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So the likelihood of it succeeding again was high if they had managed to miss that the EU finally UNDERSTOOD what this poster said in a WHOLE WAR that Ukraine stands between us and armed conflict with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Presumably all the Chiefs of Defense in the EU have now warned their governments that it will explode at Zapad 2025 \u2013 you don’t need to be a Chief of Defense to understand that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So the EU has now understood that giving Ukraine everything they point to saves our sons’ lives and spiraling costs \u2013 it’s simply good business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And a couple of countries in the EU have realized that if the USA backs down, they can move forward significantly \u2013 Macron is quick there and Germany has also understood that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then I think the EU, just like Johan No.1, has realized what an incredibly valuable asset Ukraine is for the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Trump had pushed this in 2023, it would have worked, but now it’s too late and it’s absolutely lucky for the EU, again…<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump’s peace plan is absolutely dead \ud83e\udd29<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do you know who will be sitting VERY loosely from now on and not dare to eat anything at all or wear boxer shorts?<\/p>\n\n\n Yes \u2013 Putin \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n The game is over for Ukraine’s offensive operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If we summarize the past two weeks \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n -the peace negotiations pushed by Trump are as dead as they can be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Trump has made an absolutely epic fool of himself \u2013 this surpasses most of what we have seen in the past three years, even though it probably looked like this at the NATO meeting in 2023, for example, or at Biden’s meetings. Trump WANTED everyone to see this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -sanctions against Russia are extended by a year (unless it has changed?)<\/p>\n\n\n\n -US material will continue throughout 2025 because of orders from the MIC that they get paid for, and nothing Trump can prevent if he wants to survive politically. Biden deserves full credit for this, sitting there with his kickbacks and feeling good. Now Trump has mentioned that he will end this, but good luck if you want to stay in power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -the EU has finally realized the risk in all of this and has now come out with absolutely HUGE aid packages and full support in words \u2013 both in words and actions now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -hard vehicles and all sorts of other things have been delivered since at least November, and country after country is providing more now \u2013 UA’s strategic reserves are being built up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I would dare to say that the outcome of Trump’s disastrous negotiations turned out quite well after all, and compared to the ordeal of 2024, this is refreshing to see \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n This will also eventually bring down Trump, the Ukraine war will be his downfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then you have part two of the geopolitical atomic bomb Putin has dropped \u2013 if you have read my posts, you know that we have already gone through this, but…<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine is now turning to China instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What just happened?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA has conceded here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The EU will ensure that Ukraine regains its 1991 borders by force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If China wants, they could easily ensure that it returns to the 1991 borders, right? They have a stranglehold on Putin. It will happen anyway, so China might as well create goodwill from it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If they do, they will probably get a mineral deal and reconstruction contracts with Ukraine, and they will look good in the eyes of the world and probably improve relations with the EU as a thank you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And if you read my posts, there is an anchor in the EU for its trade route that goes through somewhere and two inland seas ending in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do you think Trump had this in mind?<\/p>\n\n\n\n That the war will now end, China will have good relations with Ukraine and the EU, and Putin will lose big?<\/p>\n\n\n\n This meeting in the Oval Office has geopolitical consequences that Trump and Vance didn’t even know existed because they are absolute incompetents who can’t handle even simpler analyses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n My guess is as follows \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n -The EU will now deliver on the promises of war-winning everything in the coming weeks (you remember my discussions about the war-winning weapons package that never needs to be fully delivered).<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Ukraine’s offensive will increase in pace, along with their strategic drone warfare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -China will make statements that the war should end and that they respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, as Turkey has done, and stop there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Internally, they will make it difficult for Russia, and North Korea will end its deliveries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -China will have some sort of trade agreement with UA and the EU in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -China will get a mineral deal and reconstruction contract with UA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n By the way, Turkey has received a reconstruction contract in Ukraine as thanks for its support, Ukraine is pragmatic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And here, Putin has completely lost control of the situation. China can cut him off in a matter of months if they want.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What do you think the USA will do?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probably Trump will loudly accuse UA and the EU of wanting war, being warmongers, imperialists, and all sorts of other idiotic things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then Trump will come down hard on China, and on the EU and UA for even discussing with China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But the USA has no negotiation cards left \u2013 they have already cut off all aid to UA, they are starting to delay weapon contracts to the EU, they have already imposed tariffs on the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Geopolitically, Trump has burned the USA for decades to come, if they ever recover from this. The USA is like the bank, not your friend, and their plan was for the EU to have a new Cold War with Russia that the USA would benefit from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Economically, the USA is now losing market share in its exports that they will never regain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But there is more \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now you will see a huge influence operation against Zelensky, assassination attempts on Zelensky by citizens, demonstrations in UA, and a vote of no confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One of Trump’s additional purposes with the humiliating meeting was to undermine Zelensky domestically so that he would fall politically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now that Ukraine has refused new elections, refused a ceasefire, and stood their ground, the next best thing was to try to bring down Zelensky as president and cause chaos that way instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The only way was to openly try to show that Zelensky was ruining something that would be good for Ukraine so that he would turn the citizens against him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There you have Trump \u2013 he is doing Putin’s bidding not only in the peace negotiations but also trying to assist in every possible way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Instead, this will bring down Trump, but it will probably take some time, there is no way he will serve his 4 years \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probably not even until 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I have been absolutely terrified that UA would fall into line with Trump and we would have our WW3, but now it actually seems like we can avoid this for real.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have a few steps left to take, but unless China does something unexpected, this should be resolved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump’s plan was Putin’s plan \u2013 give Putin a breather in Ukraine, fortify the border against UA with NK and maybe Chinese forces, and position the entire Russian army against the Baltics during the summer and during Zapad turn against the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Welcome to the new Cold War, and the USA can sell oil, LNG, and weapons to the EU for the next 70 years, while the EU keeps quiet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is not thanks to the USA, Biden, or Trump, but thanks to Ukraine and Zelensky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Zelensky got to meet King George, probably canceled the meeting with Trump as revenge \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/embed.bsky.app\/embed\/did:plc:oyzatboanf3omf2eievuwzwd\/app.bsky.feed.post\/3ljdp424s2223?id=013876690702345318<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n I want to emphasize once again something we were early with: Ukraine is now disrupting FAB along all fronts so that they no longer hit \u2013 the weapon is obsolete.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This was the last thing they had, and it was a terrible weapon, but now all of Russia’s indirect capabilities are neutralized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russian doctrine revolves around artillery \u2013 they “wipe out kilometer routes” before rolling in over the bodies or defending themselves behind a cloud of artillery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since Putin is setting up his invasion force for the Baltics, UA’s fronts are a bit low priority now, both in terms of equipment and soldiers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Many brigades are in urgent need of maintenance, and even with everything drivable \u2013 imagine how it will look all month with the mud \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n For those who still haven’t understood this \u2013 Ukraine began offensive operations on February 6, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They have broken the back of the RU Pokrovsk offensive, conducted offensive operations in Kursk, regained terrain in Toretsk, and attacked on several other fronts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As soon as the mud comes, RU maintenance drops to 0 for a month, and they will be completely soaked \u2013 there is your first opening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since we went through this in 2023, we know that sometime in April, 6-16 April, the ground is passable again and this time Ukraine will strike with full force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then we have the whole summer and most of the autumn before RU gets a little respite due to the mud again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But it’s not safe everywhere at the same time and not everywhere, in northern Luhansk, it’s mostly sandy soils that don’t collapse, we have learned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2025 is the year when Russia will learn that they have stirred up the wrong hornet’s nest – wait and see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If the EU has even half a brain, we will start mobilizing large forces in Finland, Poland, and the Baltics during the summer to begin tying up RU troops. We communicate clearly with China that it is for defense, but RU can’t take any chances, can they?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The grand campaign plan that you all have probably read has not changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -they carried out the invasion of Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Belarus will become messy very soon (also tying up RU troops).<\/p>\n\n\n\n -it will be messy in Russia now that the USA is completely sidelined and their lousy tactics are obsolete.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Here you have Rubio confirming it, by the way, the USA’s idiotic tactics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Dnepr will become a hornet’s nest of amphibious combat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -UA continues to push towards the eastern fronts where Pokrovsk was the flytrap of the year, just like Bakhmut was in 2023 before that year’s offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine wanted to settle this in 2022 but couldn’t, they tried to settle this in 2023 but the USA prevented it again by forcing the EU to cut off all support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2024 was an absolute ordeal where the USA was probably quite annoying behind closed doors, as in the summer of 2024, did the deliveries stop again, if I remember correctly?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now in 2025, Ukraine has received the equipment, the ammunition, they have fought RU indirect capabilities and logistics, and the only thing missing is their offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Which they are not communicating to anyone this time except to me through Budanov.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And above all, Ukraine no longer has any red cards – the EU knows that this will be our war no later than September this year, so now all rules of engagement and red cards are torn apart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do you remember the nonsense about Russia being a threat to us in “2 to 5 years”?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia is not a threat to the EU ever, we are already a military giant, but they can open a conflict with the Baltics because the EU will never invade Russia as a countermove – it’s risk-free for Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The subversive activity is HUGE right now – we are de facto in a twilight state with RU already.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is enough for a cold war in the EU, which means that we are closing in on ourselves and becoming dependent on US supplies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So the USA may be thinking of restarting the Cold War because they gained something INCREDIBLE from it as a country at the expense of the EU, right – they are not our friends at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then Trump still has a card to play – bring back troops\/material from Europe and save huge amounts of money for the taxpayers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The USA leaves NATO and saves a huge sum on that too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s not unlikely that it’s a popular move that will be carried out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But the EU doesn’t need the USA to handle Russia – the EU is a military giant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A bit simplified, the USA has fallen, and the EU and China will increase at their expense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine has a bright future, and rarely do you see a country play their cards so well – those cards that Trump claimed Ukraine didn’t have \ud83d\ude01<\/p>\n\n\n\n We hope that these world-leading analyses are read by those in power so that the right decisions are finally made \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n What has been written in this post has been drummed in like a mantra since 2022, but I understand that everything has its time no matter how difficult it is, and I have also understood the inertia in the West. Which ultimately made me understand the lead-up to WW2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have witnessed the prelude to our era’s global conflict from the front row.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I will return in the next post regarding whether this is good for the USA or not – the basic premise is that what Trump is doing benefits the USA anyway, for the group trying to find any logic other than Trump serving Putin’s interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now we have probably reached the point where we need to streamline this a bit – for two weeks, apparently, I am alone on the project, and then there will be a lot with the procurement, and after that, it will start to increase, so it has to be from now on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -will not (have time to) comment on any social media at all really, the comment section, Bluesky, and Substack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -I suggest that you subscribe to Substack so you get the email that a new post is published – then you know that it is also available on the website to go there and comment under.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -MXT will likely, on days when no post is published, run the loss list to start up the comment section, if you are kind to him and do not point out that he has been too pro-Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -I recommend everyone who still comments on Bluesky and Substack to start commenting on johanno1.se instead – there is quite a bit of communication between those who write, but on both Substack and Bluesky, it’s just me who answers, and that’s over now. Also, your comments are not saved in the historical archive johanno1.se will become – a world-leading historical archive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -there will be fewer links and images in the posts because these surprisingly take a lot of time – the text is the simple part. Therefore, there will be fewer sources, but if you follow what’s happening, you have still seen the information. I build the posts around the information that comes but simply skip the source references.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you liked the post, please share it in your channels,<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you want a fun comment section that is really starting to pick up steam and is no longer just me talking it up on Bluesky, and then sitting there all alone and posting drunkenly – johanno1.se. There are actually hundreds of comments there daily \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack, feel free to become paying subscribers, and it’s great to see that some find it worth reading, seeing all the work put into this and taking the step to subscribe \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n ohanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F49eaeac8-356b-4ef3-842a-186ea8797dcf_935x858.png\")
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