{"id":1441,"date":"2025-02-27T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-27T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-february-27-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-25T17:57:30","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T15:57:30","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-february-27-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-february-27-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update February 27, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Update<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Trump has stolen some of the limelight last week and this \u2013 my final analysis is ready and I don’t have much more to add, especially since his domestic policy is uninteresting to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday, information started to emerge that Ukraine will sign the agreement and in an interview with Trump, he says that Ukraine will receive 350 billion USD, “lots of weapons,” and “can continue fighting.” A wild guess without more information is that the money and weapons are now in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But if this means that Trump does not actively oppose continued “fighting,” is it perhaps worth it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the quick-witted immediately noted two very important points from Trump \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Ukraine INTENDS to continue killing Russian bastards and is not at all weak as some try to suggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Through this deal, Trump generously will not actively prevent Ukraine from continuing to kill Russian bastards (truly generous…)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pair this with the absolutely gigantic aid packages that the EU is now announcing, and everyone probably understands that it is starting to shape up into a perfect storm for Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems that UA has formally confirmed that they will sign the agreement (translate the text).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/babel.ua\/news\/115761-ukrajina-ta-ssha-vipracyuvali-ostatochniy-variant-ugodi-pro-ridkozemi-prem-yer-shmigal-rozpoviv-detali<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And here was the “agreement” or whatever it actually was \u2013 a mutual declaration of intent?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/kyivindependent.com\/exclusive-the-full-text-of-the-final-us-ukraine-mineral-agreement<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Zelensky has probably made a statement as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My personal opinion is of course that this is horse-trading extortion at its worst by the USA, but if Ukraine sees value in it, which they must because otherwise they have the EU to fall back on, then this is good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If I were to guess, they have bought that Trump will not sabotage things in the future with a beautiful signature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not an “agreement” and not “binding” as stated in the text.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is then a declaration of intent that is completely without substance, and normally the parties spend years haggling over the fine print.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, if Trump starts to backtrack on his promises once this document is signed, or in any way undermines Ukraine, he will probably have a rough time in the Oval Office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here you have bipartisan support in Congress for Ukraine \u2013 very strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And Trump’s statement is after all on film.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I see this as a simple way for Ukraine to appease Trump and have him entangled in a chain, so to speak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then I want to briefly address these damn security guarantees and peacekeeping troops that refuse to die out \u2013 when has it ever worked, name one occasion?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Security guarantees are not worth the paper they are written on if it is not the neighbor who is guaranteed to be the next target who is the guarantor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peacekeeping troops are pointless \u2013 they retreat when things get serious most of the time, saying they were not authorized to engage in combat and that there was no longer peace to keep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sooner we get away from this, the better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back to the war \u2013 yesterday, a veritable atomic bomb arrived that most people didn’t even raise an eyebrow at. I released it on Bluesky and in the comments section, and there was a bit of a frenzy with violent joy and spontaneous celebration when everyone understood the enormity of what had just happened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have at times described the terrible FAB bombs that bury platoons alive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FAB has replaced the artillery that Ukraine has broken the back of, and the Russian drone weapon hasn’t been doing so well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A while ago, UA announced that they can now shoot down the FAB bombs themselves, although it was somewhat hidden behind a curtain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now RU announces that all their FABs are disrupted by televapen (EW) and the hit rate is terrible. Missing by a hundred meters means no Saturday candy for the pilots because the whole point of FAB was a direct hit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Russia is slow to adapt and within 3-4 months will not even be close to solving the problem, and you can see for yourself where we are on the calendar then \u2013 the end of June, and Ukraine is already in Moscow revving up the engines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has previously broken the back of Russian artillery, which is now down to +5000 shells\/day, where North Korean ammunition and band howitzers have been purchased for gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russian drone weapon is subject to strong EW interference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And now the FABs are disrupted, so they hit somewhere within a 2-hectare radius rather than a meter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has broken the back of ALL Russian indirect capabilities now \ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Ukraine’s drones are EW-resistant or resilient, and they are expected to produce 4 million this year. And RU takes 70% of its losses from UA drones \u2013 there you go \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(the West needs to understand that it is drones and not aircraft, artillery, robots that will cause the major losses in the future. After all, Ukraine has them all now, but drones are by far the best, or worst for the Russians in the trenches).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine also has artillery \u2013 they have produced 154 Bohdana, for example, in 2024 (I think that was the number…)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They also have aviation, and the release of JDAMs has increased significantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You will see much more of this at the Dnieper front, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has GRK, guided ammunition, GPS ammunition, dumb ammunition with excellent hit accuracy from, for example, Archer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have robots, drones, and what else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have their Uber for artillery, so target acquisition for hits is so short that Western artillerymen feel like they’re dealing with poor customer service.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have the digital battlefield where attacking\/defending units have an overview from above, and combat units are directed and know what is happening in real-time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Defending units are torn apart when drones swoop in horizontally through every opening and blow up all reinforced spaces, and when the defense goes into firing positions, cluster ammunition rains down on them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then the attacking unit has a complete overview and knows exactly where the defenders are, how many, and with what weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once they are taken out, the attacking unit immediately receives information about the size of the response force and where it is coming from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, it’s not like this everywhere, but a lot of units are fighting like this now, and they can be pooled together into focal points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And against them, they have sniper teams with support from the brand-new Kr\u00e4l infantry, and the response force is either donkey infantry or scooter infantry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can understand for yourselves how this will end, and it’s not the sniper teams that will win \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fire on target\/suppressive fire with attacking combat vehicles is getting better and better with stabilized cannons in new weapon stations and night vision devices that make targets stand out like a beacon in the background \u2013 impossible to miss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let Ukraine now start their offensive, and you will understand why there are reasons to be -positive-positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You already know this because you have diligently read Johanno1.se all month, but this is Putin’s game plan that is now being torpedoed one violent torpedo at a time \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia would achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine one way or another with Trump’s help and thereby be able to free up more troops. North Koreans and Chinese could also have been used for border surveillance against UA, and especially the Chinese could have been peacekeeping troops in place for peace in our time and to save the children. The purpose is to be a roadblock for UA to attack across the demarcation line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second best is that RU, with the help of NK, at least manages to keep the fierce Ukraine at bay and can use its Baltic-strategic reserve as intended.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We already know that RU is setting up two army corps, and Ukraine believes there are 150,000 in this reserve. Whether with or without NK and Belarus, I do not know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now RU and Belarus have entered into various agreements on mutual assistance, so it’s just a false-flag away from being attacked by Poland and\/or the Baltics, thus having a very Russian “casus belli” in quotation marks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Belarus’ defense forces have been trained by Wagner since the summer of 2023, and the surviving Wagner members are considered competent. Apparently, Belarus’ defense forces were on paper 100,000, but in reality maybe 15,000 in combat units, and Belarusian SOF have fought in Kursk and were the first to run. However, Belarus has probably done what they can with the defense forces to improve reasonably?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similar to all the movies we’ve seen, thus with circus-SOF \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wagner started with 7,000, then 3,000, and then I’ve seen 11,000, but there is still a significant group of Wagner remaining in some form at least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then we have the 150,000 Russians in their two army corps, and RU has allocated better equipment to them, that’s my guess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even though they are newly formed, they have presumably been organized around experienced units, and they have work experience with drone weapons and the warfare of 2025 \u2013 quite self-experienced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In September, Zapad-25 has been announced, and just like last time before the UA war, only 13,000 were supposed to participate, and then 200,000 participated, and international observers were avoided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This is a FULL mobilization against the Baltics, Poland, the Baltic Sea, and the whole shebang if I may guess?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Baltics have just started laying mines against Russia this year, was supposed to start in February, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then there is water towards Estonia both from the Baltic Sea and from the east that they may not have fortified as well?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their defense forces are ridiculously small, and Western units in the area are in battalions, if I remember correctly, now also with a Swedish battalion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zapad25 \u2013 all attempts by the West to mobilize units towards the eastern border will be met with Russia’s full subversive activities, and in countries where they can influence majority decisions, no units will be sent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There will be sabotage in the West to delay our mobilization, there will be chaos in the streets, banks will crash, all sorts of things will explode, gang wars, and our left and right extremists will be at war on the streets supported by Islamists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus will pose a threat to Poland, which will consider the need for its defense forces for close protection, and the same with Finland regarding what is planned against them. Perhaps a lot of Chinese in some peacekeeping operation up there just to tie up troops, and they will never cross the border?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the Baltics, there are the brigades that the West has managed to send off + their own units that the countries have mobilized to defend the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, there will be large-scale infiltration by Russian special forces, and the invasion itself will be airborne, reconnaissance, and SOF conducting their raids, a massive pre-emptive strike, and then a mechanized attack. Yes, it will be Russian style, but this is a new task force where all capabilities have been (re)created.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since Putin’s game plan is as follows \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-invade a poorly defended area, take the terrain, go on the defensive preferably behind a river or dominant terrain, deploy the indirect umbrella and all protective capabilities, and then move west.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-So it’s enough if there is only an Estonian or Swedish battalion defending in any area, and he can throw a division against them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How is our EW against his FAB, how are our drones, how is our defense against RU drones, against RU artillery, against RU ground combat?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When RU has swept away a weak defense and gone on the defensive themselves, round two will come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EU now needs to mobilize at a 3:1 ratio to the area and RECAPTURE the lost terrain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia’s subversive activities will go at supersonic speed, and country after country will fall away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is it worth sacrificing our sons and daughters for 15 hectares of potato fields in easternmost Estonia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the answer is no, NATO has fallen, and rogue states will increase the pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the answer is yes, Putin’s only downside is that he needs to bring home two battered army corps and then deny everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Does anyone seriously believe that the West will invade Russia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is Putin’s next step – Ukraine warns, Belarus has the agreements ready, and Zapad25 has been announced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a reality we have to deal with, and it will happen in September if Putin manages to handle Ukraine adequately \u2013 then the EU will be there and must make tough decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So for me, it’s quite clear that the EU will now allow Ukraine to fight in the way they see fit and provide them with more equipment. With a bit of luck, Trump is now pacified with a nice signature on a paper \u2013 Chamberlain anyone \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, there are violent counterattacks in Toretsk now<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And a herd of North Koreans are trapped in Kursk and have to choose between starting to nibble on each other or surrendering, and Ukraine seems to be okay with both options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I also want to remind you of the absolutely hysterically popular Friday binge that will happen this Friday around 6:00 p.m. Previously, I have hyped it up on Bluesky and then sat alone and posted all evening while drinking rum. No more, it’s a lively party with cool guys, girls, and all other identities who are there with playlists and innovative dance moves that will be the next big thing after the brand-new hip-hop \u2013 don’t miss out, I’m just saying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And last but not least, Romania has chosen a side \u2013 congratulations and welcome to the bright side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you want a fun comment section that is really starting to pick up and is no longer just me hyping it up on Bluesky and then sitting there all alone and drunkenly posting \u2013 johanno1.se<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are about a hundred comments there daily packed with information \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Substack, you are very welcome to become paying subscribers, and it’s great to see that some find it worth reading, appreciating all the work put into this and taking the step to subscribe \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ohanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Update Trump has stolen some of the limelight last week and this \u2013 my final analysis is ready and I 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