{"id":1461,"date":"2025-02-18T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-18T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-february-18-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-25T18:14:15","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T16:14:15","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-february-18-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-february-18-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update February 18, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Update<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I have 938 saved links with relevant information that I would like to write about, a lot is happening and it feels like we are just scratching the surface in what is being reported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I felt yesterday that Trump has been overtaken, according to yesterday’s world-leading post, Ukraine had a delegation in China for a meeting and then Zelensky has been in Turkey shaking hands with Erdogan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And UA has reached a trade agreement with UAE, which is like the gateway to the entire MENA free trade something.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

EU has come out strongly against the USA now, and King-Macron called for a meeting of all the major players in the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Germany, it seems like the Russian scaremonger is well positioned to win the election, and Afd and Scholz are out in the cold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1891242006237651336\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday, I went through my homemade theory that Trump did not prioritize Xi and Putin as number 1, but he entered as a Great American Negotiator and was going to give the US everything on a silver platter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now Ukraine and the EU have completely turned their backs on him, and Zelensky is not at all lenient in his statements (which automatically means that he has received guarantees from the EU \ud83d\ude01).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So what does Trump have left to offer Putin in Saudi Arabia \u2013 nothing at all in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because even Putin understands that for every move Trump makes, there will be a three times worse countermove from the EU right now \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It will be interesting when Putin asks Trump to back down and seeks revenge by turning MAGA against him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My PROOF for Trump is if he now leans back with a satisfied expression over having achieved something good, or if he goes in with double speed and starts accusing the EU, Ukraine, and hitting out in all directions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is now possible that we have received Putin’s peace plan assuming this is true, but an Italian artist who is very popular in Russia has been approached by a concert organizer for a “peace concert” in Moscow in August 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nhttps:\/\/uatv.ua\/en\/italian-singer-al-bano-invited-to-perform-at-a-peace-concert-in-moscow-media\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

My suggestion now is that the EU gives Ukraine so many weapons that Moscow is a smoking asphalt parking lot in August because Putin has just blinked \u2013 he WANTS peace because he NEEDS a break.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My bet in early autumn was that Putin fooled the West into thinking that if they could just force Ukraine to the negotiating table, Putin would also come, and then he had no plan at all to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine was not allowed to attack his high-value infrastructure, they were not allowed to invade Russia or destabilize Russia \u2013 the punishment for Kursk was stopping deliveries from the USA, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin could have huge ammunition depots, fuel depots, and staging areas for his army corps right on the Russian side of the border (at least 12 army bases) which, when they were fully trained, drove into Ukraine \u2013 now it’s all a smoking ruin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West did just that at least twice \u2013 stopped all supplies to force UA to the negotiating table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That has also been what Ukraine has told us \u2013 that Putin does not want to negotiate at all, and that has been the prevailing narrative in the media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two things have happened after November 5, 2024 \u2013 Ukraine no longer has any red or yellow cards for its strategic drone warfare, and in January 2025, it rolled out over Russia in its full deadly glory, which likely shook the country quite a bit, much more than we think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other thing is that the USA started delivering everything they promised but hadn’t sent, which was about 90% of the promised material, and the EU has started sending material as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And now after Trump’s negotiating round in words, the EU wants to see Russia become a pile of rubble, a smoking pile of rubble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And then Ukraine began offensive operations on February 6, 2025, it is more than lawful how slow the world’s experts are before they realize that UA has now started its window for offensive operations \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is not at all impossible that Putin is getting cold feet and is putting his last hope in Trump being able to negotiate something that is not too humiliating for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, RU is going all out and wants half of Ukraine in the usual, Russian, way, and then they will get some oblast and be very pleased \u2013 everyone comes out on top just like with the land cessions for Finland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The leadership needs to have something, anything, to hold onto power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My gut feeling tells me that Russia is wounded, and if the EU does not allow itself to be talked down, Ukraine will get its big win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And I guess if the leadership doesn’t get its “get out of jail card,” they will dangle, and you know how marinated they are in what \ud83d\ude01<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We also have a possible first offer from Ukraine \u2013 “go back to February 14, 2022, and we can start talking.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And Russia is going all out at the UN \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There is a significant gap in the information we are receiving right now about the war “peacekeeping force,” and it is pointing in all directions, so I mainly want to point out one thing here \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The force in Ukraine that half of the EU, including Sweden, is\n\n\n

At the frontlines, RU can’t have too many heat sources without becoming targets, so they have to try to lie in their foxholes and cover themselves as best they can.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s still below freezing at night and just above freezing during the day \u2013 the worst possible weather for RU units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are rumors of many prisoners, and especially UA is keeping quiet about most things right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keep an eye on Trump, because if he starts pushing for a ceasefire more intensely, then we might have a clear signal of the condition of the Russian team, but we haven’t seen that yet, and until we do, I stand by my analysis from yesterday that he is not running direct errands for Putin or Xi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What I can assert with certainty is that Ukraine initiated its offensive operations on February 6th, and within the window to start up, front commanders are launching their attacks against the Russian positions one after another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to previous posts, we should expect \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-more attack vectors on the northern front<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-concern in Belarus<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-the Dnieper, which ultimately leads to Crimea<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-local attacks at the frontlines as opportunities arise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then there is a strategic reserve that can strike at the right moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I would argue that after the fall of 2022, this is the most threatening situation for RU, and if the USA\/EU\/West no longer have any red cards or try to hold back Ukraine, it could end in disaster for Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All serious debaters agree today that it was Biden who prevented UA from cutting off VDV where they were on the wrong side of the Dnieper in early autumn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then when UA tried to launch an attack into Russia in 2023, they were also stopped, and in addition, the USA and a few others revealed the battle plans in the summer of 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Ukraine is now able to fight on equal terms without one arm tied behind its back, things could get lively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The mistake all experts are making now is that they are relying on past stages and giving a low probability for anything to happen, but that was because the West sabotaged everything they could.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now they are saying in words that they won’t do it, and I am hopeful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But if the West betrays Ukraine once again, they might lose heart \u2013 I hope our leaders have worked on the risk list and learned from Johan No.1 on how to conduct politics now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I started a little joke about MES, but now that people are seriously asking where to buy this world-leading cap – I feel that we have created a small subculture over three years, and a T-shirt with “DenGamle” in text above an Ent, an ancient tree or man, is something I would gladly buy, for example \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or a T-shirt with an overturned walker, footprints in the gravel, and a discarded beer can.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or “Victory Boat Tour 2025 with different locations and dates.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are anti-Putin and pro-UA motives in abundance already.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then there are a bunch of expressions and events that only those of us who have followed this closely would recognize and would also be fun to have in print.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, I will wear a black cap with No.1 in white discreetly as I am \ud83e\udd29<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Time, there is always a shortage of time for everything one wants to do \ud83d\ude2d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As usual, if you liked the post, please feel free to share it in your channels. I want to emphasize that the comments on johanno1.se are starting to pick up now, with many interesting discussions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I hope you are checking the comment section there and feel free to write. If you want to continue on Bluesky and Substack, that’s fine too, of course, but it’s more streamlined with the website and easier for others to see the comments \u2013 and many of you write very good posts worth reading \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Update I have 938 saved links with relevant information that I would like to write about, a lot is happening 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