Yes \u2013 as someone (Mr. Andersson the living legend?) wrote on Bluesky, Ukraine will soon be blamed for this war…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Those of you who have read what I write know that Russia will soon want peace in our time and want to save the children, and that Ukraine is the aggressor. Trump will now push that narrative hard now that Ukraine completely drops the USA and turns to the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What are the advantages of Ukraine turning to the EU now instead \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-we get a country in the EU with the world’s strongest defense force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-we get first dibs on those “600 billion USD rare earth metals”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-we get a bulwark against the east that holds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We simply want Ukraine to be our friend rather than an ally of the USA, or China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And now the die is cast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yes, those of you who read know that Putin is setting up two army corps for the Baltics and Finland, or if it’s just the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The size of different units has fluctuated wildly throughout the whole war, but Zelensky is of the opinion that RU is working on and preparing a strategic reserve of 150,000 troops and we can safely assume that new equipment is not arriving at the fronts in particularly large quantities but is going to this strategic reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To some extent, this buildup was slowed down by Kursk when they had to start moving units there in panic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And I don’t know how many of these 150,000 troops are North Koreans, but I know that the NK 11th Army Corps is PLANNED to be fully deployed to the UA war and is about 60,000 strong?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It could be that RU’s numerical strength here is 60,000 \u2013 70,000 in their two army corps and then the NK 11th AC constitutes the remaining strength + some others?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Or does Belarus’ defense forces also count here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We can also safely assume that Russia will not use up this capability in Ukraine but try to test NATO in the Baltics or Finland \u2013 and now Trump has been VERY CLEAR that the USA will not intervene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I have long warned about Putin’s test of NATO, thought if anything it would come earlier but maybe Kursk crashed the timetable?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Zelensky suggests that Putin’s strategic reserve will be ready by summer 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Finland is prepared and if I may guess, Putin is not completely without historical memory and Finland is out of the question because he has no plans to lose half a million in the Finnish marshes again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the Baltics are there with an open door \u2013 their defense forces are about 6,500 per country, the EU brigade currently has a battalion which is Swedish, and their fortification lines against Russia have just begun. When it was shown in 2023 how effective the Surovikin Line was, it is actually strange that the EU has not pushed a project to fortify the Baltic border against Russia but that’s how it is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Poland can be engaged by projecting threats from Belarus and the Chinese SOF company that was there is worrisome in itself. What if 20,000 Chinese are there in the spring of 2025 for an anti-terror exercise right at the border with Poland?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Anyway \u2013 whether it happens or not, the EU must plan for the worst-case scenario and send brigades to the Baltics, period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The EU must also immediately build a very deep mine line along the entire Baltic border INCLUDING on their side of the beaches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now comes my revenge planning \ud83e\udd2c Buy JAS Gripen instead of F-35, buy European-made IFVs, support the new tank program.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Follow Ukraine’s lead for the drone program and continue with wheeled and tracked howitzers in 155mm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Skip the Himars and buy European (does it even exist \ud83d\ude32)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And buy European LV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
All of Europe has been held captive to the USA and forced to buy American, but who knows if Trump will stop orders or deliveries when they are really needed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It’s time to arm up and at least Sweden has an excellent fighter jet to sell at the best price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And our AWACS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Make Europe Strong \u2013 MES.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There will be a big campaign from me with green caps and MES in blue \u2013 wear it with pride, be an MES \u270a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then I think WSJ is exaggerating a bit about China, or how “peacekeeping troops” should be interpreted. Reuters is more cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump has also unlocked this because the most important weapon against China was a battery of sanctions if they didn’t behave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\nhttps:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china-pushes-peacekeeping-efforts-end-ukraine-war-wsj-reports-2025-02-13\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Chinese peacekeeping troops in Ukraine are extremely bad for us but for the USA, it’s no problem \u2013 they would just sell LNG, oil, and weapons to us at a premium price when China’s peacekeeping troops increased to three million men.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But expect full speed ahead from the USA \u2013 they soon have nothing left to send in terms of equipment, the $300 billion USD that was available will not be convenient to send, and there will soon be problems with deliveries of contracts to Europe as well when Trump realizes that it frees up Europe to send all the old stuff to Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It’s easy for Trump to stop all of this and the consequences will follow, but when they do, it won’t be fun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So, I think I’ve covered everything and now Trump \u2013 Putin \u2013 China have made their move, so over to the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you for a second think that Ukraine will roll over and die, you’re wrong \u2013 now they will intensify their efforts in strategic drone warfare and offensive operations because they know that the longer time goes on, the higher the risk of China getting involved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And if we are to interpret the EU’s support in Ramstein, what has been sent and recent statements, we will stand by our brother people all the way to the finish line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The question mark is of course Germany, but they supported the +WEIMAR statement and that signals consensus outwardly at least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Pistorius has come out strong and Scholz remains silent \u2013 looks good \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I guess this joint EU statement will go down in history in a positive way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The UK will probably seize the opportunity and rejoin the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
France always wants retribution for 1940 and is seen as capable and a leader, so there’s a good chance Macron will grab the flag and start running first until he stumbles and faceplants in the mud.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
JEF is already fully activated in the sense that the countries have close contact and take their security task seriously, even if it was intended as an expedition force perhaps. It’s a safe bet that it’s the embryo of JEUF \u2013 Joint EU Forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kaja Kallas is EXTREMELY clear in her second statement: “Quick solutions are dirty deals that will not stop the war. A concession before the start of negotiations is an appeasement that will not work. If Ukraine resists, Europe will increase its support.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-thank the gods she managed to take office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\nhttps:\/\/embed.bsky.app\/embed\/did:plc:oyzatboanf3omf2eievuwzwd\/app.bsky.feed.post\/3li2e7eb5rs2q?id=07348987015492336\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
I would argue that we have just witnessed history being made, and that our grandchildren will read about the +WEIMAR statement in the history books in the future and know who Kaja Kallas is, and maybe also Johan No.1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia will soon start an absolutely ENORMOUS influence operation against the EU and Ukraine that will surpass everything we have seen before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But right now, with a few tears in their eyes, they have seen the countries in the EU find their lost spirit and gather under the sooty banner with bullet holes in it, reaching out to hold Ukraine’s hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Opportunities to feel pride have been few in recent years, but today I wear my green MES (Make Europe Strong) cap with a straight back \u270a\u270a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If I previously thought the war would be over by 2025, we can almost guarantee it now in the editorial office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even if some backstabber starting with M tried to twist it into me saying it’s about 2024 as well \u2013 the key in all of this is what the West does. So far, over 3 years, as soon as it looks promising and Ukraine seems poised to strike a fatal blow, they have pulled the rug out from under them, causing Ukraine to fall back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Do you see it now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Do you see it from the EU’s perspective now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I don’t, I see that we stand firm and then Ukraine gets its resounding victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I believe Trump has grossly misjudged this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And now it’s done, Zelensky has aligned himself with Europe \u2013 it is done<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As usual, if you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you missed the comments section on Johanno1.se yesterday, you missed over eighty insightful comments from, among others, Nelson Mandela.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Today is also the LEGENDARY AND WORLD-LEADING FRIDAY NIGHT DRUNK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As I have collected fun videos throughout the past week, it will be lively on Johanno1.se in the comments section, I can promise you that, so don’t miss out and sit there like a question mark when the afterparty starts at your workplace’s Monday coffee break.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It starts around 18:00 and I will reveal the best rum brand down here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I have to emphasize that it’s February 14th, so for those of you in committed relationships who want to survive the day, it’s probably best not to spend 100% of your time in the comments section. Have a quick three-course meal, throw a flower in your partner’s direction, give them the champagne bottle, and then return for a fun evening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And yes, I want to survive, so it can’t be an all-nighter for me, but the comments section will remain open, I have my six-hour time difference to play on \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And for those still hopeful \u2013 Tulsi Gabbard has shut down the Five Eyes cooperation as her first action…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let me paint a scenario for you, and then you can think a bit for yourselves and then come back with what you think the outcome will be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mango Mussolini’s peace plan as we know it today (since that’s all we can reason about) is that Ukraine will get an unfavorable peace they are deeply dissatisfied with, and Putin will get a ceasefire in Ukraine, presumably where he stands today behind the front lines and well-built fortifications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Firstly, the Ukrainian balloon will immediately implode \u2013 power struggles, disillusioned soldiers, political chaos, and so on. UA is also disappointed in the US and EU for betraying them, turning inward, and the next presidential candidate will likely win on an anti-Western agenda, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And Russian psyops will be scorching hot, of course \u2013 one would almost have to look for a greater injustice to capitalize on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putin, on the other hand, will emerge stronger from this, and suddenly he can move a million soldiers to another location.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now the EU, and NATO without the USA, are left there with a million Russian soldiers along the border with the Baltics, Finland, and Poland trained in 2025 drone warfare, and Belarus’ defense forces trained by Wagner since 2023 are also there, along with Chinese SOF disguised as North Koreans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China takes over monitoring the border with Ukraine as a peacekeeping force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, our forces must learn the hard way how to wage war in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This is ABSOLUTELY high-risk for the EU, and if a nobody like me can figure this out, the big thinkers and experts in the EU can too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Therefore, the EU will now appease Ukraine and ensure it does not end up with an unfavorable peace \u2013 simply because we have to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We are so close to such a nightmare scenario, and then all of Putin’s parties in European countries will demand that we bring our sons back from a meaningless war in the Baltics, governments will fall, and new governments that were elected on not participating in any war actions at all will take over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The EU is EXACTLY as dependent on Ukraine as they are on us, and I believe the penny has finally dropped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I have been running this daily (well, almost) text for exactly that purpose, because I understood the value of Ukraine already in 2022 and have long felt that the EU accepted unreasonably high risk probably without even analyzing it sensibly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Think about this a bit, and then you’ll realize how close to the edge we actually are right now, but that the EU has also done everything right in the wake of Mango Mussolini’s negotiations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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