{"id":1473,"date":"2025-02-12T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-12T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-february-12-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-25T18:20:04","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T16:20:04","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-february-12-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-february-12-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update February 12, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Update<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F18fb9d4f-c598-42d6-a451-3477dcbf0eae_323x473.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F18fb9d4f-c598-42d6-a451-3477dcbf0eae_323x473.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Snow leopards<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Ukrainian soldiers are moving to the front lines. Don\u2019t forget to wish them safety &amp; victory \ud83d\ude4f <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kOYU3PQcUa\">pic.twitter.com\/kOYU3PQcUa<\/a><\/p>&mdash; UKRAINIAN SQUAD\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6 (@ukrainiansquad) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1888925832476815783?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 10, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>I think this sounds a bit more like Trump, to be honest, but we&#8217;ll have to wait and see. Still don&#8217;t want to predict in that darn swamp because he is completely unpredictable&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc96018da-1a25-4fbe-a865-d583674fb40d_678x675.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc96018da-1a25-4fbe-a865-d583674fb40d_678x675.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:401px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But this is exciting &#8211; a proposal for a sharp lend-lease act from the USA, at least David D is jumping up and down about it, &#8220;victory weapons&#8221; were the funniest this year \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08299e43-81c5-4969-a92c-fecc0a4d417d_673x590.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F08299e43-81c5-4969-a92c-fecc0a4d417d_673x590.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:379px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>And now The Telegraph reports that Trump&#8217;s original peace plan is on hold &#8211; how they know that is beyond me \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd18319ec-aab0-4073-9fd2-a171d5a2e92b_679x752.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd18319ec-aab0-4073-9fd2-a171d5a2e92b_679x752.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:337px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>What I believe we can confirm is that everything is in flux right now, which also means that the West\/Trump has not reached an agreement with Putin on the next step, forcing Ukraine into it &#8211; I think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This means that Putin&#8217;s last trembling straw has burned up just as he was about to grasp it with his claw-like black fingers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And it means that Putin will try something other than increasing pressure in Ukraine &#8211; for him, the status quo in Ukraine is acceptable for now, provided he can cause trouble elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So the West should be extremely vigilant from now on, that&#8217;s my assessment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More sabotage is likely, and testing NATO, for example, as we discussed yesterday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They can ramp up in Africa significantly, and they probably haven&#8217;t given up on the Middle East either, even though things haven&#8217;t gone well so far, according to both Hamas and Hezbollah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The West should think like JEF in the Baltic Sea and just stay alert.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Denmark &#8211; the country that, unlike everyone else, didn&#8217;t record surplus equipment at above the new price but actually paid other countries to send equipment, like Bulgaria, and then bought equipment on the open market and sent it to Ukraine, has also decided to now inspect all oil tankers in the shadow fleet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That sounds completely natural, but for three years it has been avoided like the plague, and the EU has even allowed the shadow fleet to dock in our ports and sell Russian dirty oil to us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Denmark lacks integrity and courage, I must admit, and they are already leading in support for Ukraine. Rarely have I thought this way about the beer drinkers and sausage eaters before, and in 1940 things didn&#8217;t go so well for them &#8211; congratulations \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe7050c89-c97a-4ac3-8e81-cf32869f8aee_672x582.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe7050c89-c97a-4ac3-8e81-cf32869f8aee_672x582.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:353px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>What do you think the result of the inspections will be? Probably resulting in a ban on driving, of course, for all these ships are an environmental disaster with sails.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine has confirmed something absolutely sensational &#8211; they have shot down the FAB bombs themselves in flight. These bombs are supposed to be impossible to shoot down, but not for the technology conqueror UA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faef73460-6568-405d-88e3-3ca480bed015_672x783.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faef73460-6568-405d-88e3-3ca480bed015_672x783.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:384px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39699029-a0d4-4885-b973-638f6f37e14e_677x823.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F39699029-a0d4-4885-b973-638f6f37e14e_677x823.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:396px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Another technological leap, but the simplest way is of course to shoot down the drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine has some kind of drone that is completely invisible on Russian radar and other equipment, so it must be seen with the naked eye and shot down with small arms, which the Russians are incapable of &#8211; partly because they are half-blind and then they can&#8217;t aim properly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1fae2186-5209-47fc-8c73-4f58d0bc65d4_677x352.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1fae2186-5209-47fc-8c73-4f58d0bc65d4_677x352.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:417px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>My guess is that by 2025 Ukraine will have a technological edge &#8211; after that, RU with China&#8217;s indirect and direct help will have caught up, and there is a limit to how much one can develop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lately, we&#8217;ve heard about &#8211; dracarys, EW weapons that have been too effective, undetectable drones, laser weapons, FAB conquerors, new cool mines, autonomous weapon stations, and an increasingly violent drone weapon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I laughed endlessly when in 2022 I predicted that UA would attach 155mm grenades to the drones and drop them vertically on RU &#8211; who&#8217;s laughing now \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their long-range drones are just about reaching RU&#8217;s level, but UA has also significantly modernized its fleet, especially its IFVs and APCs, through the REMO program.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Soldiers&#8217; skills are another area, and when you read about how they were like shepherds with the North Korean SOF they captured, everyone realizes that they have reached wizard level, and even the Home Guard has its own SOF units today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the arrival of aviation, the final puzzle piece is in place, and now it&#8217;s time to strike (kill the Russian bastards) while the iron is hot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We haven&#8217;t seen amphibious warfare or airborne landings yet, but UA has quietly amassed a large number of helicopters \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sitting and looking at the fronts, north of Kupiansk where RU crossed the Oskil, Ukraine has deployed a whole mechanized brigade \ud83e\udd29<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;ve always thought that the attacking vector is high-risk, and it will be rolled over when Ukraine addresses it, and we&#8217;re probably not far from that. A drone unit and a mechanized brigade should go a long way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc16b5dcc-6745-4b98-a45f-23c83f917cf6_1191x850.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc16b5dcc-6745-4b98-a45f-23c83f917cf6_1191x850.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The Russians have weakened somewhere here, but I can&#8217;t find it &#8211; if I had to guess, they weakened at the Southern front because that offensive never got started, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the Dnieper, the 76th GAAD is gone, which is positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The focus points besides Kursk are Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. Virtually the rest of the VDV is at Chasiv Yar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It seems that Northern Luhansk has stalled, and there Ukraine might be able to turn the tide?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Apparently, Ukraine has also fought in Siversk?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dnieper is certainly weakened, but there UA needs to carry out an absolutely epic pre-attack before crossing, but with today&#8217;s weapons &#8211; JDAMs, Himars, drones, and Storm Shadow, I guess they can clear out a battalion defense pretty quickly today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then, if they choose the right place &#8211; which is a bit of a hallmark with the Dnieper, the assault forces must move onto the highway and have two roads to choose from to reach the bridgehead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>UA then places their FPV screen over the roads and lays distance mines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Dnieper is excellent for this type of battle, and then they can carry out raids against all rear functions along the shores down to Crimea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s a bit exhilarating to write, but just like with the strategic drone warfare, my strong assessment is that we have only seen the beginning so far \ud83d\ude01<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is more to come, and a LOT more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What I can say with certainty is that UA today masters &#8211; battalion attacks, breakthrough of minefields\/defense lines, mechanized warfare, amphib\n\n\n<p>The internet bill is one big scam and so is the tax, which would instantly cut the bill in half if it were removed. In most countries I&#8217;ve lived in, the internet bill has been a fixed amount per month, like a couple of hundred bucks \u2013 not three thousand!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If we are to comment on the school shooting, one of the victims was a mother who was a single parent with three children under 18 \u2013 good grief \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Otherwise, the media and opposition have completely politicized the event now, which is very sad \u2013 like vultures circling over a carcass.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have a post in the works about the high pitch in politics right now, I think it&#8217;s irresponsible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s quite funny, and a bit of room for thought, that Putin has understood that Russians like Trump more than him, so the media has been ordered to speak negatively about Trump \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21132290-c361-42ea-942c-53cbeaedf236_670x752.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21132290-c361-42ea-942c-53cbeaedf236_670x752.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:376px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>You can rest assured that there will be offensive operations, and I am extremely curious to see the aftermath of the peace meeting and what is communicated outward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 2023 NATO meeting was a low point where Zelensky was called ungrateful, Ben Wallace learned the hard way and got fired in the UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As usual, if you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels and if you want to &#8211; join in and comment on johanno1.se<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now we are in a period where we can write again, but time is the limiting factor \u2013 every day I feel like I could write three times as much and still not have time to report on everything, which means that a lot is happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have previously mentioned that 2025 will be the most important year in our lifetime, and it seems to hold true.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Update Snow leopards I think this sounds a bit more like Trump, to be honest, but we&#8217;ll have to wait [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ukraine daily update February 12, 2025 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-february-12-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine daily update February 12, 2025 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Update 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