{"id":1491,"date":"2025-02-05T14:45:20","date_gmt":"2025-02-05T13:45:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-february-5-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-25T18:25:31","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T16:25:31","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-february-5-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-february-5-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update February 5, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c19f4c7-7b50-4ae7-aefb-9e7f9b673de4_665x434.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c19f4c7-7b50-4ae7-aefb-9e7f9b673de4_665x434.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:374px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Lions<br>https:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1886815340706845108?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s start with the obvious \u2013 Ukraine has initiated an extremely violent strategic bombing campaign against Russia, and in January 2025, 2\/3 of the 30 largest refineries were visited by UA drones, with several of them ceasing production altogether.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0be6189e-489c-43ec-8a0b-eff3dbae322b_675x596.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0be6189e-489c-43ec-8a0b-eff3dbae322b_675x596.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:409px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>What we don&#8217;t know is how many of these refineries resumed operations during the previous campaign, but most likely, RU managed to repair most of them. Despite spare parts flowing in from the West through -somewhere, and the West buying RU oil and LNG throughout the war, they also had dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But now it seems to be over, as yesterday a rumor surfaced (at best, maybe SALTINT is better) that all geographical restrictions on Western weapons are now lifted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e8059e7-9cf8-41be-b730-2795f0a64ea0_677x341.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e8059e7-9cf8-41be-b730-2795f0a64ea0_677x341.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:365px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>We could assume that after the election, the bans on Ukraine to target the oil industry gradually disappeared, as they have now severely cut off oil exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not to mention all the oil depots, I can&#8217;t keep count, but there are many.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\u2757\ufe0fAt night, \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6UAVs attacked the \ud83c\uddf7\ud83c\uddfaRussian oil depot &quot;Albashneft&quot; in the village of Novominskaya, Krasnodar Territory <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/f13PZhlYuU\">pic.twitter.com\/f13PZhlYuU<\/a><\/p>&mdash; \ud83e\ude96MilitaryNewsUA\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6 (@front_ukrainian) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1887036148280688821?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 5, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Zelensky has been a valuable source of information throughout the war, being allied with the West and not the adversary, so when he says something, it carries high credibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mango-Mussolini has now strongly announced that he is considering exchanging rights to natural resources for supporting Ukraine to a win. Since most resources are in Eastern Ukraine, the logic then follows the 1991 borders, right? And Ukraine probably wouldn&#8217;t trade anything for less than that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Zelensky now informs us that this has been in motion for a long time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2bce0a8e-8354-4a4e-9091-1e646298828d_679x689.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2bce0a8e-8354-4a4e-9091-1e646298828d_679x689.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:393px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>And for those following the world&#8217;s best news anchor, you may remember that in September 2024, when Zelensky sought support for his peace plan, one of the offers to Trump was that the US would have first dibs on natural resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So Trump is simply following something Zelensky offered back in September 2024, but it sounds like he has now come up with it all by himself, shining star that he is \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Does Ukraine need Trump&#8217;s support?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Questionable, I would say, but of course, they must be able to fully trust the EU, and I don&#8217;t think Ukraine is that naive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Is this an outrageous move by the US?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No, if they help Ukraine regain the 1991 borders, and the US has already put in a lot of effort, it&#8217;s not entirely unreasonable for them to have the right of first refusal on what they wish to buy, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because ultimately, it&#8217;s all about the US buying, investing, and gaining rights, which will greatly benefit Ukraine&#8217;s economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So I think this would be good, and it&#8217;s something Ukraine itself proposed to Trump earlier to pique his interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Will it work out?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lavrov lightly refers to Trump as Hitler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb685166e-e57f-4b01-849a-cd7d959c930e_677x642.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb685166e-e57f-4b01-849a-cd7d959c930e_677x642.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:343px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>And Peskov says that Russia is ready to negotiate, against the backdrop of burning refineries \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba4aa5ed-b0fe-42b9-b732-00dee67ffbfa_677x676.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba4aa5ed-b0fe-42b9-b732-00dee67ffbfa_677x676.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:441px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As a EU citizen, I can&#8217;t help but feel that the EU should have been much quicker to act, as we should ideally want to align Ukraine with us, having also provided them with significant support. It would be a bit disappointing if the US snatches all the benefits post-war after we&#8217;ve done roughly the same?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But historically, the US has had a certain knack for steamrolling over and getting what they want&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Right now, I feel it&#8217;s pointless to try to understand Trump at all \u2013 If he actually goes through with trading support for findings, Putin will block him on WhatsApp as revenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have a feeling that Musk has long been in the Russian pocket \u2013 they probably have enough compromising material to bring him down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So let&#8217;s leave that mess for a while and focus on the UA war and the fronts we haven&#8217;t visited in a while, with the observation that Trump is making many enemies right now \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The other front up in Kursk is holding, and RU has currently decreased intensity in the area, and the North Koreans are withdrawn \u2013 I don&#8217;t see Kursk falling anytime soon at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5a5c3ea-4c1d-4da8-9671-c49163bd8f04_1336x856.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5a5c3ea-4c1d-4da8-9671-c49163bd8f04_1336x856.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:682px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In Belgorod, I can&#8217;t see anything other than that Ukraine plans to retake the area at the very least, judging by the number of brigades and their bite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F89893b6d-e485-4706-93b0-103bb716e378_1377x832.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F89893b6d-e485-4706-93b0-103bb716e378_1377x832.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:655px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In the Kupiansk pocket, it seems like UA has reinforced, and if the rumor from the other day about them receiving drone units is true, UA probably won&#8217;t let go of that pocket, which is quite incredible. The units in that area have been fighting with virtually nothing for a long time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffb4a8b0a-3263-45e3-8711-376d9d81cb85_1353x909.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffb4a8b0a-3263-45e3-8711-376d9d81cb85_1353x909.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:624px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>To the south of Kupiansk, they won&#8217;t give up either, but I don&#8217;t see any significant buildup of forces directly, although RU is said to be in poor condition there, with 1st GTA attacking as infantry in soft vehicles, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chasiv Yar and Toretsk have fallen, but Kostiantynivka will be the next town to defend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9d33adec-b03b-4651-a4e0-ececdf59d9c8_1360x870.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9d33adec-b03b-4651-a4e0-ececdf59d9c8_1360x870.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:671px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar (where I now understand that UA is outside the town, not in the town, so Deepstate is correct) don&#8217;t look very good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, UA has a forest of elite units in the area and will conduct a costly delaying action against the\n\n\n<p>Bluesky, Substack, and the website will suffice as channels in my opinion, and now it&#8217;s an okay process to post on all of them without completely wearing me out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A bit sluggish with all the images to make the post reader-friendly, but it is what it is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s absolutely incredible that Ukraine has been able to carry out a strategically decisive bombing war potentially capable of winning the war just with cheap drones, essentially.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During WW2, massive bombing fleets were needed for this, and in, for example, the Gulf War, or the RU attack war of 2022, it was aircraft and missiles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Israel fought Hamas and Hezbollah with JDAMs, which are probably cheaper but the carriers are very expensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine has achieved the same results with autonomous, cheap, mass-produced drones at low cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We all know that when history is written, the USA will be the ones behind all the clever ideas, but for me, the direct involvement of the West in this war has been almost fatal, and what UA has come up with themselves has been spot on, with a high probability that the drone weapon was Ukraine&#8217;s idea that they pushed hard for themselves, even though the West stood by laughing and thinking they should buy more aircraft from them instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s a constant game of whack-a-mole with stacks that, when aligned correctly, become a win \u2013 capability, quantity, countermeasures, and a mix of abilities that, when everything is in place, are unstoppable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is where we are now in 2025 in the strategic bombing war, and Russia is completely unable to defend itself. The only thing that could make a difference is if China provides ENORMOUS amounts of LV across the entire surface of Russia, but they haven&#8217;t done that so far, and the war is being won now in the year 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Someone rang the gong that RU lost the strategic bombing war already in January 2024, and it still stands \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-positive-positive, therefore.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lionshttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1886815340706845108?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w Let&#8217;s start with the obvious \u2013 Ukraine has initiated an extremely violent strategic bombing campaign against Russia, and in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1491","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ukraine daily update February 5, 2025 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-february-5-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine daily update February 5, 2025 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" 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