{"id":1503,"date":"2025-02-01T16:37:43","date_gmt":"2025-02-01T15:37:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-february-1-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-25T18:30:42","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T16:30:42","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-february-1-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-february-1-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update February 1, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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It’s always fun to draw conclusions from the monthly financial statements of Russian (embarrassing) losses AB and there are clear positive trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Artillery, IFV, and tanks are all declining, but Ukraine’s drone warfare is increasing \u2013 can only mean fewer targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks for reading Johan\u2019s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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And fewer mechanized attacks, and fewer gun barrels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is supported by the fact that RU fired 5000 grenades\/day in January, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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And that a UA tank can calmly advance to spitting distance and blow up houses full of Russians without facing indirect fire. This video is huge because when RU even gets close to the fronts with a tank, it’s like a swarm of drones around it and survival chances are zero with beautiful turret explosions and burning torches for the crew.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1885268600803504487?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Casualties are the second highest in the war, along with soft vehicles being the highest \u2013 it’s clear that RU chooses to attack in soft vehicles nowadays if they even get a ride to their kill zones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We’ve also had highlights like scooter shooting and a battalion attack in old trucks from the 50s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And now even tractor shooting in violent attacks that move so slowly that they are probably impossible to miss \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1885307021840241115<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anything that is technical has very few losses, while Ukraine rolls out huge swarms of drones in its strategic drone campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This can also only mean that high-value equipment has already been targeted, and since there are reports that Russian LV, gun barrels like robots, are absent at many targets, they likely have an acute shortage of them and radar, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the West is now boosting UA capabilities and starting to receive orders from the defense industry, it’s top-of-the-line stuff that is barely reachable \u2013 the most modern equipment in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

German Lynx IFV with all the extras facing Russian attacks in soft GAZ trucks, can’t really go any other way than dead Russians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now BBC has confirmed that all production has stopped at the second refinery in Kstovo as well, at least 16% of refinery capacity is gone, and UA has only just begun this strategic bombing campaign \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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I believe we are soon reaching the point where China either has to start supporting Russia for real, or the war will end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

North Korea doesn’t have what Russia would need, except for more soldiers, but the test group hasn’t performed well at all, and the question is if Rocket man will release 100,000 now when he knows that 90% will die?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A balancing act for the West to navigate here, as China is economically vulnerable so clear signals can probably go a long way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, they could station Chinese LVs at high-value targets deep inside Russia \u2013 hardly a reason for the West to scream about it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is also some mistrust between Russia and China, and I’m not entirely sure that China likes Russia’s approach to North Korea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the Russian warehouses are now empty, it’s undeniable, we have videos from the depots where tanks and armored vehicles that are left are in poor condition, and it’s simply easier to produce new ones than to modify or complete \u2013 the Red Army’s stockpiles have now been depleted \u270a\u270a<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin buys artillery from North Korea in large quantities, and it’s manned by North Koreans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attacks are in soft vehicles and infantry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia managed to modify and produce very little in 2024, and now the losses have indeed decreased, but they are probably quite low on most things today, I guess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, it’s highly interesting that UA is knocking out pumping stations and oil and LNG export ports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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But why do they do it only after three years?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We all remember the Western outcry over the invasion of Russia in 2023 and Ukraine’s attempts to target the oil infrastructure in Novorossiysk, where Zelensky confirmed a red card.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But suddenly now it’s okay?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If something is first not allowed and then after a while it is without any consequences \u2013 then the previous analysis has presumably been wrong?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West was probably concerned about skyrocketing oil prices, but they never materialized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Ukraine is doing now will eventually end the war, but it should have happened back in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now to ceasefires and negotiations \u2013 RU has had 20 ceasefire agreements with UA just between 2014-2020, all of which they immediately violated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Does anyone seriously believe that RU will take negotiations and ceasefires seriously and start behaving?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They are habitual criminals and can’t do anything else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky basically says the same \u2013 we will only stop fighting if we get a “just peace” with justice for all the fallen. Do you think that includes giving up all territories and just stopping shooting?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky is not wavering and has no signs of sweating \u2013 he tells us that Ukraine will keep pushing for a while longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Germany wants a ceasefire and to turn on the gas tap again, high treason and they have rarely been on the right side of history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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I actually don’t understand what’s happening in Velyka Novosilka, there is more than one OSINTer claiming that UA is still fighting in the town, but Deepstatemap has it as completely lost now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We’ll see, but Deepstatemap has a reputation for being extremely accurate, and something as important as Velyka Novosilka, it’s not okay to be wrong about it from either the OSINTers or Deepstatemap, who is right…<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

No one will care either, but if they have been tested on other front sections, it DE-FACTO means that North Korea is a belligerent party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When they fought on the Russian side of the border against invading Ukrainians, it’s difficult to say anything really, I think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But if UA can start taking prisoners of war and gather evidence that they are fighting inside Ukraine, then it’s a completely different situation that the West should make a big deal out of, in my opinion, but they won’t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sweden has now put handcuffs on yet another civilian Russian-controlled ship for cable breaches, three ships in one week \u2013 it’s time to stop the shadow fleet now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Here is a Finnish drone-claymore of mine that releases a cloud of glowing metal shards raining down on the shooters \u2013 absolutely devastating weapon, 100% accuracy \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/EuromaidanPress\/status\/1885056670222479558<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, UA is said to have wiped out a lot of LV, but nothing that shows up in the losses directly, take it with a grain of salt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Frontline report: Ukraine wipes out three Russian air defense divisions in three days<\/a><\/blockquote>