{"id":1523,"date":"2025-01-25T15:48:07","date_gmt":"2025-01-25T14:48:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-january-24-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-05-25T18:42:57","modified_gmt":"2025-05-25T16:42:57","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-january-24-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-january-24-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update January 24, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Big things are happening not only with me but also in the Ukraine war. Here I am in the Caribbean with an Italian employer, wondering what the heck I’ve done \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now I have managed to map out a bit, and two Italians who are the company’s technical experts and travel around on various projects are as corrupt as can be. They demand that the Chinese should win the project before the tender process has even started, and they want to change the criteria to favor the Chinese. They have worked with the same Chinese company on previous projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They are somewhat self-taught and indeed quite smart, but they lack all the routines I have learned over the years – now I understand that they are protecting their side business and why they are hostile towards me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CEO of the company (which is a subsidiary) seems to be the one who brought me in hoping that I can somewhat control this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive thing is that not only the CEO has identified this, but also the international consultant and then the cement plant manager who absolutely despises these two thoroughly corrupt individuals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Everything has its time, and sooner or later one must address this conflict, but for now, we are building relationships for a few months and being Chinese patient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it’s not just me who had an interesting week because Trump’s olive branch to Putin wasn’t very green and quite thorny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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And Russian intelligence officers immediately started talking about the good years with Biden – there’s the grade for him, by the way, the Russians are dreaming back to his presidency and the good years, D should be ashamed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Trump is a lot, but he is also completely unpredictable, and Putin hates unpredictability. He wants to control all possible outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Middle East came to a sudden halt a month after Trump threatened Armageddon if it didn’t come to a halt precisely because he is unpredictable. Terrorists and Israelis are not clear on what “Armageddon” means for themselves and choose to play it safe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Saudi Arabia got a slap in the face when Trump thought they were investing too little in the USA, so they stepped up and promised to burn $600 billion in investments in the USA as quickly as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now he has demanded that the Taliban return $7 billion worth of equipment they snatched during the chaotic retreat from Afghanistan. The Taliban, of course, said no, and it will be interesting to see what Mr. Unpredictable’s next move will be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He is imposing tariffs on Canada and demanding that they become a U.S. state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Gulf of Mexico is supposed to be renamed the Gulf of America, still good that he didn’t demand Gulf of Donald.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Denmark must give Greenland to the USA, otherwise, there will be a trade war and so on with a rather long list, and he has been president for two days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s quite difficult to see how Putin can like this at all, and especially – those who are behind it and are starting to get tired of the war are probably beginning to whisper to each other that this may be heading for disaster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For almost three years, Putin has had a “get out of jail” card from Biden where he has been helped to climb out of all the holes he dug himself into, and above all, Ukraine has been prevented from pushing Putin into those holes. It’s a bit like a scratched record, but leaking all battle plans, releasing VDV, and preventing the EU from sending equipment are among the more serious actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now the question is whether Putin still has this trump card, and what his communication with Trump looks like today?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Have you, like me, noticed that the strategic bombing war has increased DRAMATICALLY from election day until today and has reached a storm strength we haven’t seen in three years of war?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a puzzle that needs to be solved, and we already have a couple of good pieces –<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Trump’s statement above<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Zelensky leaking Putin’s peace offer<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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-Zelensky proposing 2022 borders as a starting point for negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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For me, it feels like Trump and Zelensky have been in cahoots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But then the question is what the 2022 borders mean for the global situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we stick to the 2022 borders, it’s better than today, but it’s still a territorial gain for Putin, giving the imperial faction something to hold on to. If you have a stomach problem, you shouldn’t eat for 24 hours to starve out whatever is there, and then the stomach’s own defense will take care of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Same with the Russians, starve them out so they get the blow they need to rethink.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky has a delicate line to balance on, and the 2022 borders may be the best Ukraine can get, but the West should know better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I’m not far from being called a bloodthirsty warmonger, but I would have liked to see a Russia fleeing on the battlefield and a new 1917 because it would extend the time until a significantly reduced Russia could have imperial dreams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If they just retreat to the 2022 border line and there is some kind of organized power handover to a new warmonger, it’s only a matter of time before Russia goes after this palace again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if Belarus hasn’t fallen and Kaliningrad is filled with Russian troops, a little has been gained from Ukraine’s enormous sacrifice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I believe that –<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Transnistria should be returned<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Belarus gets its popular uprising and approaches the West, we can handle 10 million Belarusians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Kaliningrad is demilitarized<\/p>\n\n\n\n

-Russia is decolonized, but the West should try to stop China as much as possible at the doors of all the new -stans<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then Russia is much weaker as a threat tomorrow than it has been so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let’s be honest – how many wars has Russia started since the 18th century, and how many has China started?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That being said, it doesn’t mean we should forget about China, but we must handle Russia in the best way possible and not try to involve China in this mess and give Russia its thousandth free pass for a theoretical scenario that has no historical support at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you thought that cut cables in the Baltic Sea were everything, the British have problems with persistent vessels suitable for bottom work over their cables and have had exciting encounters
https:\/\/x.com\/sythuk\/status\/1882065743338213833?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Girkin hits the gong from prison that it’s over. For me, it becomes clearer every week that this is over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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UA’s strategic bombing campaign is now rolling out like a wet blanket over Russia, knocking out huge values almost every night. 200-400 drones per operation, with intervals of less than a week, increasing, and will continue indefinitely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia doesn’t stand a chance here, the oil industry, the war industry, operation blackout, war reserves – everything is under great pressure right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has, of course, read my analyses that the war will be over by 2025 and now says the same with the caveat that the West must behave, because they must.<\/p>\n\n\n

I always feel happy when my analyses are read and turned into battle plans, last time it was the Gulf War so it was a while ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We’re not quite there yet, but soon the discussion must begin on how the West will handle Russia after the war. You know as well as I do that especially Germany wants a normalization directly with Russia, but many Western countries have completely burned their bridges with Russia. Finland, Poland, the Baltics, Sweden, France are the main ones, but the Netherlands, UK, and Denmark are not far behind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I also believe that the USA is on the verge of crashing the relationship completely with Mr. Unpredictable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But if there is some kind of UN-led discussion, then Russia will pretty much come out of this unscathed and resume its pre-2022 position. Then they will just be like busy ants building up capability for Phase 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Phase 2 will not only be Ukraine but the Baltics and Finland will surely have to defend themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it gets even better-<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky is stroking Trump’s ego right now and Trump likes this kind of thing<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Zelenskyy knows 100% what he's doing. Genius. https:\/\/t.co\/nZlUqRBOB9<\/a><\/p>— HotSotin \ud83c\uddeb\ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6\ud83c\uddea\ud83c\uddfa\u25b3 NAFO (@HotSotin) January 23, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote>