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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nAs is well known, I am related to General Patton through a champagne-loving secretary, so I understand a bit about his mindset, and he will be green with envy during 2025 over Ukraine’s violent offensives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
How is the war going now when everyone is feeling down?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thanks for reading Johan\u2019s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Subscribed<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I can tell you how it’s going \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Trump will not have much power over what the EU does in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-The EU has decided to engage in the fight, that is clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-RU has made so little progress in recent months that it is embarrassing if we look at the losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-UA is droning Russia, especially targeting fuel, ammunition, and the production of key components.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-RU’s response is poor with missile attacks, and their modus operandi is to retaliate tenfold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-The West is delivering a LOT of equipment now, heavy packages, and many countries have committed to training Ukrainian brigades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Ukraine is actively destabilizing Russia from within.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Ukraine has been given permission to continue invading Russia AND targeting previously forbidden infrastructure \u2013 oil exports. The geographical limitations imposed by Biden have been partially or completely removed, or perhaps Ukraine has stopped caring?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2024, it was a time to worry as the West wavered, primarily with the traitors Biden, Sullivan, and Scholz, while other Western leaders remained silent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now, country after country has been drawn into the conflict and has indirect confrontation with RU \u2013 Finland, the Baltics, Sweden, and France at least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The UK is still keeping a low profile and playing a little dirty to make it look big, while Scholz is doing his best to tarnish Germany’s reputation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Scholz has embarrassed Germany, Biden has embarrassed the USA, and Kier Starmer is embarrassing the UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Nordic countries stand strong except for Norway, which should do more. Denmark is an absolute lion, coming in a close second after Finland (because they are fighting on the front lines), followed by Sweden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Finland has seized Russian property within the country, closed the border, declared that if a Russian battalion crosses the border, they will retaliate against Moscow, and boarded a Russian ship. Russia is conducting war-preparatory sabotage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Is this as close to open conflict as it can get without actually being in open conflict?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Baltics are almost following suit, but they are a bit more cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
France currently has Macron leading the charge, but that may have an expiration date, although he already took on Putin in January 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Time is on Ukraine’s side, and everything is always relative – RU is starting to have trouble deploying mechanized brigades because they have no heavy vehicles left, and their artillery is shattered. They rely on infantry attacks, transporting the artillery with whatever vehicles are available, down to electric scooters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, Ukraine is increasingly receiving top-of-the-line equipment they have wanted \u2013 newly produced, approved by EU countries because it’s good for business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When they should have sent the latest previously and newly produced equipment to themselves…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Remember the discussion that the West would NEVER send the latest equipment to Ukraine to avoid giving RU access to the technology? Well, I see it with the German LYNX \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n\n\n\n
All explanatory models are always wrong from the negative perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But yes \u2013 Ukraine must be able to hold the front lines, but the feared front collapse did not happen in 2024 when the West, as revenge for Kursk, stopped delivering equipment, again\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Up in Kursk, Ukraine has among its most valuable units and various special operations forces fighting to hold back the tide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Probably fewer than 20,000, so numerically outnumbered by the Russians’ 60,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But what is RU losing daily up there, surely around a thousand in KWIA, if not every day, then a few. So, the 60,000 they have there will last for two months, and then they are at zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n