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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nThe night to Sunday was the war’s largest operation over Kiev, by the way, and the second operation in a short time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While RU is holding back Ukraine with a larger prisoner exchange, a little more than half has been exchanged now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And peace negotiations dangle in front of Trump and the European troika – which is only there to pacify us in the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It seems reasonable that RU is about to start offensive operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Saturday night, there was a flash on credible Twitter that 10 government planes had left Moscow for Samara and Kazan (thus highly unconfirmed so far and a Twitter rumor\ud83d\ude00).<\/p>\n\n\n\n If we put the pieces together, it’s probably not a coup in Moscow but rather that RU intends to significantly increase the pressure in the strategic air war and on the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Merz also promised Taurus if RU did not respect the ceasefire – have you heard anything from him about it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s been a while since RU did not respect the ceasefire on May 12, almost exactly two weeks ago…<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s still five to twelve here, but we don’t hear much – my constant hobbyhorse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump has his reasons, and we have guessed everything, but European leaders are actually backing down in the face of Russian escalation right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Because we don’t hear strong words from Starmer, Macron, and Merz, who promised biblical consequences if Putin did not accept the ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Putin has just made the largest bombing of Kiev in the war, and it’s quiet – are Starmer, Macron, and Merz starting to feel a bit difficult when Putin runs circles around them?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Didn’t they think they wouldn’t have to do anything, that threats would work?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Have they not learned a damn thing in three whole years?<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s a fact that Ukraine has received a lot of equipment K4 2024 and K1-K2 2025, and according to all figures, they should have ammunition – there is no stop in the equipment pipeline at all now. We also don’t hear Ukraine loudly complaining about it as they usually do when the US and Europe are supposed to punish Ukraine for things going too well and for stopping the delivery of equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to Ukraine themselves, they have solved the personnel issue by reallocating +200,000 from the rear to the spearhead, and they should have solved mobilization as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then they have opened up for non-Ukrainians in more brigades and made it easier to apply – the problem there is whether they are Russian spies or not, so I don’t know the lead time until one is investigated and can start killing Russians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A hell of a lot of mine-clearing equipment, aircraft, amphibious combat equipment, new IFVs, new turrets for IFVs, decent tanks, and so on have been delivered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now it’s the end of May, and we’ve had weather for offensive operations since mid-April maybe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have several reasons why Ukraine has not started offensive operations –<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1-Trump and Europe want a restrained Ukraine to not provoke Putin in this sensitive time because he is very close to signing a ceasefire and saving all the children. Ukraine’s violent fighting makes him scared, and he then retreats back into the shell he has just started to come out of and cautiously looks around because he trusts us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2-RU has kept the initiative, and Ukraine must therefore act defensively because they cannot wrest the initiative from RU and are fully occupied with defending against the shooting swarms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3-Ukraine is preparing for a violent offensive and has learned to keep quiet after the US leaked all their battle plans to Putin for three years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4-Ukraine does not have the capability for an offensive – after three years of constant disappointments, the motivation in the defense forces is starting to wane, and to carry out a violent offensive, the defense forces must be prepared for quite a number of casualties and wounded, but the will to do so is not there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump can never keep quiet, so early in the peace negotiations, he said, “Ukraine wants to continue to fight, and I will let them do that.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n We also know that Ukraine had a plan for 2024 to retake the entire country, but the US and Europe probably put a stop to it by ceasing to send equipment and likely also applying pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Has Ukraine then completely changed its mind five months later?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probably not if we know them at all after following their every move for three years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, we can reasonably assume that Ukraine has been kept passive in various ways since the turn of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then it remains that they are either preparing for a huge slap in the face and have operational security, or they have been caught that everything is always relative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Russian barbarian horde is simply too strong now, and where they could attack up at the northern front, they are not allowed to attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Of course, I assume a big bang because UA has prepared for AND wants to carry out, but if we don’t see any offensive at all during the summer, it’s hard to ignore that they don’t feel strong enough relative to the Russians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Also count on the 11th AC from the bandworms taking up defensive positions at the northern front and closing that door quite soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then Russian units in training will soon be moved to Belarus and up to the tin sheds at the border with Finland – probably this year’s conscripts and training units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There will also be an exercise with a few companies of Chinese SOF in Belarus this summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And Pskov will probably be lively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The US believes that RU, all else being equal, can continue at the current pace for another two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Regardless of what Putin says, he has two goals – to take all the terrain east of the Dnieper or to bring down Ukraine. He will not stop until this is achieved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sometimes you get pretty tired, and here we are again – Trump and European leaders have held back Ukraine since the turn of the year, and now RU is finally well prepared for their summer offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Any advantage Ukraine had probably been worked away by RU in this relative calm they’ve had.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -RU apparently has better robots that are harder to shoot down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -I guess China has provided LV protection for targets inside Russia, so they are better protected today than at the turn of the year. Probably Trump’s strong stance against China in early February made them change their minds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -North Korea’s 11th AC is presumably on the move so that all units on the northern front become an offensive reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -RU has developed drone weapons to catch up and become harder to disrupt with EW for Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -RU has had time to establish new guidelines on how to conduct ground attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -The mobilization has surprisingly gone well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -The country of Russia has had much less pressure on it since the turn of the year, so Putin’s position is strengthened. It’s difficult to oppose Putin when 29 countries, including China, attended the parade on May 9. Putin looks strong, and Russia looks strong (Ukraine could have made them look weak, but Trump and Europe don’t want that).<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Putin has sized up Europe \u2013 we are not ready, we set up red lines that Putin stood on and then laughed as he ran circles around us, and we haven’t taken our threats seriously \u2013 as far as Putin is concerned, they were empty threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Putin has enough control over Trump (he thinks).<\/p>\n\n\n\n To describe it in the simplest terms, Putin has managed to talk down the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But you might think of EU sanction packages immediately, the shadow fleet has +650 ships, and in this round, the EU is banning 200 of them, whereas in previous sanction packages, they had around 20-50, but there are still maybe 300 ships left that RU can replace these 200 with. The ships on the list take a different route, the EU doesn’t include the new ships on the sanctions list, and can’t do anything – 6 months go by, and then we play the same rope trick again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, the sanction package hits hard against China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.consilium.europa.eu\/en\/press\/press-releases\/2025\/05\/20\/russia-s-war-of-aggression-against-ukraine-eu-agrees-17th-package-of-sanctions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n When is it documented enough for the UN \u2013 in Mariupol, there are now graves for 80,000 deceased persons. Maybe they can update their civilian death toll a bit?<\/p>\n\n\n\n By the way, China is considering cutting off the water supply to India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Continued appreciation for the page is always welcome, and there is a QR code for that purpose, as well as a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack \u2013 there is still a chance to become subscribers and it is valuable to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n