{"id":1611,"date":"2025-05-28T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-28T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-may-28-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-06-02T09:40:38","modified_gmt":"2025-06-02T07:40:38","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-may-28-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-may-28-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update May 28, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>BELPOL is perhaps a bit biased in the case, but they consider Zapad25 as a springboard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/odessa-journal.com\/belpol-russia-is-preparing-to-attack-the-baltic-countries\">https:\/\/odessa-journal.com\/belpol-russia-is-preparing-to-attack-the-baltic-countries<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just as we feel that Belarus is an intrusion in our defense and if the opportunity arose and we could win over Belarus, it would be a great geostrategic victory &#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-in the same way, Russia feels about the Baltics \u2013 they would gladly incorporate that area back into Russia and have a land route to Kaliningrad and the moat back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F619bb64b-3d5d-4464-8948-7485494ef471_1148x872.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F619bb64b-3d5d-4464-8948-7485494ef471_1148x872.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:312px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>And then all of Ukraine of course, because then one has direct contact with Slovakia, Hungary, and Serbia, reaching right into the soft parts of the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia has a new security agreement with Belarus, which has also promised to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to the country \u2013 which has not happened yet, the platforms are there but not the warheads. Then Lukashenko won the election because he is the most popular, so the country is still fully controlled by Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At least this writer has read the thread \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-newsroom wp-block-embed-newsroom\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"NKkzbpqsYV\"><a href=\"https:\/\/newsroom.co.nz\/2025\/03\/18\/putins-dangerous-war-games\/\">Putin\u2019s dangerous war games<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Putin\u2019s dangerous war games&#8221; &#8212; Newsroom\" src=\"https:\/\/newsroom.co.nz\/2025\/03\/18\/putins-dangerous-war-games\/embed\/#?secret=u8InpoguhK#?secret=NKkzbpqsYV\" data-secret=\"NKkzbpqsYV\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Putin&#8217;s last chance to achieve something more than potato fields in Ukraine is now in 2025 and a bit into 2026, but the weather is not so favorable then, more below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If he succeeds, the upside is enormous, and if he fails, it&#8217;s not much worse than today for Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If things go as they usually do, one could perhaps angle it in a way that it is NATO declaring war on Russia for domestic opinion and that they therefore want peace and end the war to save the children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Having been defeated by Ukraine in a fair war would be harder to sell to the cheering crowds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I also saw that the EU has now agreed on its defense fund and that all countries can draw from it to strengthen their national defense \u2013 this is what we have been asking for all along, and now it finally came after they read these posts. The countries at the outer defense handle the outer defense, but the EU pays so they don&#8217;t overarm themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia&#8217;s window for expansion to open a conflict with Europe has an end date, probably in 2026 when the Baltics will seriously start rebuilding the border, costing around 1600 billion SEK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine&#8217;s strategic drone warfare is quite stunning \u2013 for Russia to try to sit still and wait this out probably won&#8217;t work. They already lost that war in January 2024 if you read the posts, but the West has always prevented Ukraine from doing too well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now the last red cards have been played, and Ukraine can target any objectives in Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5adc8c81-46fc-46e3-b49c-f308a394c6e9_828x1278.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5adc8c81-46fc-46e3-b49c-f308a394c6e9_828x1278.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:433px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>A Poseidon P8 circled around the Kerch Bridge all day yesterday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0aa7e052-cc70-45f1-b07b-899529b5cf29_828x1212.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0aa7e052-cc70-45f1-b07b-899529b5cf29_828x1212.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:335px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead of trying to see this rationally, the question one should rather ask is \u2013 is Russia known for going all-in and escalating the level of violence if they don&#8217;t get the desired effect?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, Belarus&#8217; land border with Ukraine is long, and in the summer, one can drive southward from the entire length of it in terrain, with no major border rivers or other natural obstacles in dry weather \u2013 I also don&#8217;t think Ukraine can fully man it if they are under heavy pressure on the eastern front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s also difficult to ignore that Ukraine is retreating and that Russia is now starting to gear up for its summer offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More should come because Lukashenko is out in all media he can find, promising not to start a war, Zapad 25 is months away, and at the parade on May 9th, the only general Putin hugged was a North Korean twelve-star.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to UA, at the northern front, RU now has an offensive reserve of 50,000, including VDV, who have now begun to attack into Sumy and Kursk oblasts, and there is movement in Kharkiv Oblast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They were needed at the Kursk incursion before and should have been needed for guard duty along the northern front, so the question is who is handling that now, have more from North Korea&#8217;s 11th AC arrived at the northern front?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Belarus&#8217; defense forces were considered subpar in 2022, that&#8217;s generally accepted, but today in 2025, they have had three years to improve, and since the summer of 2023, they had 3,000 \u2013 11,000 Wagner personnel training their ground troops. Wagner was widely regarded as among the better fighting RU units, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And they probably still have those Wagners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At Kursk, Belarusian SOF and Wagner participated in the operation that required Trump to negotiate away the advantage for Ukraine, so well did it go for Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>North Korea&#8217;s 11th AC is said to be 60,000 strong if I understand this correctly, there are different estimates but they are probably their shock troops. In total, around 12,000 came before, but the entire corps staff was in Kursk + all the brigade commanders, and then they topped it off with 1,500 SOF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/pdf\/resrep23358.3.pdf\">https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/pdf\/resrep23358.3.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The reason I keep mentioning NK is that, as I said, the only general Putin showed joy in seeing was a North Korean general, and I think we know Putin by now \u2013 there will definitely be more from NK, otherwise he wouldn&#8217;t have even given them a glance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Belarus&#8217; defense forces are said to have 50,000 professional soldiers and &#8220;1.5 million reservists,&#8221; which one might interpret as potential personnel reserves?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It seems that RU has managed to gather offensive capacity inside Ukraine, and the 60,000 that I wrote would become redundant from Kursk were apparently 50,000 and are now creating a buffer zone at the northern front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And then the last reserve \u2013 RU has over 400,000 in various letter agencies and Rosgvardia, probably more as they have likely increased it quietly throughout the war. This is the outer defense and should not be taken lightly, but if a war could be decided, they are probably reachable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think this question is relevant &#8211; what is the best guess on how we would act if Ukraine continues to retreat?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because if Putin tops the team with Belarus, North Koreans, and the letter agencies&#8217; own units, he likely has the numerical advantage he needs, and now they have apparently found a way to fight that works \u2013 artillery, drones, reconnaissance drones, and FAB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have previously thought that the Dnieper is the red line that Europe has drawn, but what would be the likelihood of us sending troops to defend that line in Ukraine, all else being equal?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now we have just accepted the largest terror bombing of Ukraine in the war, plus Putin turned his back on peace negotiations, and the response was that we no longer prevent Ukraine from targeting any objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So for three years, that&#8217;s what we&#8217;ve been doing \u2013 preventing Ukraine from targeting any objectives \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the discussions Zelensky had with the troika \u2013 he has hardly received guarantees about troops in Ukraine or air protection?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, the entire West is now selling weapons to Zelensky, but it&#8217;s good for our arms industry, and has long lead times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is not easy to navigate at all between political posturing around Trump, what Ukraine says for influence purposes, and everyone else&#8217;s positions, not least Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The easiest way is probably to see in action and it&#8217;s hard to escape the fact that Putin is not the least bit interested in a ceasefire and that Ukraine is retreating on the battlefield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s also hard to ignore the steps towards increased conflict that we see from Russia, where only troop movements remain now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Russian offensive on the northern front also ties up Ukrainian troops in the area, and I&#8217;m beginning to suspect that RU has quite ambitious plans for this summer, not ruling out attempts to cross the Dnieper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite everything, Ukraine has a limitation &#8211; the number of soldiers, and the front they now need to defend is more than legally long now that the border with Belarus is included.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If RU can fill in with North Koreans on the northern front and Belarusian units along the land border, as well as their own offensive capacity on all other fronts, it could be quite exciting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As they say, it&#8217;s five minutes to midnight &#8211; the fact that Russia doesn&#8217;t want peace, that they will have a major military exercise, and that parts of the leadership are now in bunkers are all signs that at least it won&#8217;t be calmer in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Support for Putin&#8217;s imperial ambitions has been somewhat wavering, but in 2024 China began to show interest when they realized that the West was not going to intervene and settle the war, and as soon as Trump took office, China significantly increased the tension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fact that 29 countries including China participated in Putin&#8217;s May 9 parade was alarming, but the most important thing for the West was that Ukraine did not ruin Putin&#8217;s image with drone strikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All these endless demands for restraint on Ukraine and the low-key response to Russia, as well as countless other opportunities, are what have led us here &#8211; nothing else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I could easily come up with five occasions off the top of my head when this could have been over and China would have crawled back into its shell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finland also believes that Russia is escalating significantly in the Baltic Sea but with the aim of protecting its oil tankers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kyivpost.com\/post\/53307\">https:\/\/www.kyivpost.com\/post\/53307<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think one should be extremely cautious with those who claim that Russia is about to lose. We see no signs of that at all, and after all, we should try to analyze this based on what we see in action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This link was also interesting, 20 Belarusian brigades or battalions have Ukraine as their destination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/belarusinfocus.pro\/the-ruling-elite\/2023-changes-in-the-political-field-2024-sterile-elections\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Anyway, as this develops with everything on red alert, the likelihood of the war ending this year in one way or another is quite high &#8211; gearing up for a showdown \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you liked the post &#8211; feel free to share it in your channels and above all, please share the English version with people you think might appreciate posts and comments they haven&#8217;t been able to read before. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/\">https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Continued appreciation for the site is always gratefully received, and there is a QR code for this purpose as well as a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Substack &#8211; there is still a chance to become subscribers and it is valuable to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:ohanno1.se\">johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:substack.com\/@johanno1\">substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\">https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BELPOL is perhaps a bit biased in the case, but they consider Zapad25 as a springboard. https:\/\/odessa-journal.com\/belpol-russia-is-preparing-to-attack-the-baltic-countries Just as we [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1611","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ukraine daily update May 28, 2025 - Ukraine war<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-may-28-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine daily update May 28, 2025 - Ukraine war\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" 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