This weekend, 10 government planes flew from Moscow to Samara and Kazan. The information circulated on Twitter among accounts we consider credible but has not gained traction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There were screenshots from the usual sites like flightradar24, and 10 flights belonging to the government were identified leaving Moscow at the same time of day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Our initial leading global analysis was that RU intended to escalate \u2013 mostly because there were no indications of another vodka run, and that was the last time everyone left Moscow. At least that was the flash message we sent to all the leaders in Europe so they would understand what was going on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The day after, Merz announced that all restrictions for Ukraine to target objectives in Russia with Western weapons had been completely lifted by the USA, Germany, France, and the UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When everyone immediately asked, “Has Ukraine had restrictions until now, wtf?” Merz clarified that those restrictions had already been lifted at the turn of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
My follow-up question \u2013 “Did Ukraine have restrictions until the turn of the year?”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
(we knew they did because Sullivan had been clear about it, but when Merz reads this post, there will probably be a new statement that the restrictions were already lifted in November).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I also don’t believe for a second that Biden and Sullivan lifted all restrictions 20 days before they left office, and that it was also completely silent about it, and that Ukraine chose not to target any objectives inside Russia even though Western leaders begged on their knees for them to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I also wonder if Kier Starmer has received a response to the letter he sent by snail mail to Macron asking if they could use Storm Shadow against targets in Russia, or if he is still checking the mailbox?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Anyway \u2013 Ukraine has not targeted many high-value objectives since the turn of the year, quite the opposite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We’ve had beautiful periods when 2-3 refineries a week had their distillation towers blown up in colorful clouds of burning gasoline and flying Russians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then Ukraine tried to target the Kerch Bridge with a DHL bomb and received a severe scolding for the act.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When Kiev is covered in robots and shaheds, the Kremlin, Frunzenskaya, and the May 9th parade remain untouched.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And the oil fields and export ports \u2013 at least the ports were targeted for a while, but Ukraine has not dared to touch the oil fields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So allow me to doubt that the USA, UK, Germany, and France all unanimously lifted restrictions at the turn of the year – Merz is caught in his first emergency lie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And above all \u2013 why didn’t the 10 government planes head to the war bunkers already at the turn of the year, and why did Putin have a parade on May 9th where the entire leadership was lined up like a big bullseye if the West bombarded Zelensky with emails to drone the parade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Because you can be extremely confident that Ukraine would have ended the war by covering that balustrade in a violent drone cloud and then showing sweeping drone footage of all the bodies \u2013 citizens of 29 countries would have thanked Ukraine for being spared continued life under despots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Merz is the leader who seems to have the strongest domestic mandate to drive escalation from the West, and he also seems very German \u2013 when they have made up their minds, they go for it, as we learned the hard way already last century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Because now, a few days after Merz confirms that all countries have lifted their geographical restrictions, including the USA – the next letter bomb to Putin is on its way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Germany will finance Ukraine’s production of long-range robots up to 2500km with the frozen Russian funds and their own pesetas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n