{"id":1680,"date":"2025-05-31T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-31T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-may-31-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-06-02T09:40:11","modified_gmt":"2025-06-02T07:40:11","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-may-31-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-may-31-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update May 31, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Yesterday two news came, Ukraine has control over the landing but a bit of a mixed bag &#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAs of the evening of May 29, the operational situation remains difficult but under control. Active combat continues in specific border areas, particularly near the settlements of <strong>Khotin<\/strong> and Yunakivka communities. The enemy is operating in small groups, attempting to infiltrate border villages and establish footholds,\u201d the statement says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Johan\u2019s Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3998572-active-combat-ongoing-near-khotin-yunakivka-in-sumy-region-rma.html\">https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3998572-active-combat-ongoing-near-khotin-yunakivka-in-sumy-region-rma.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F108f0515-b3de-413c-8a6d-2fd9f89ee7cf_1042x806.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F108f0515-b3de-413c-8a6d-2fd9f89ee7cf_1042x806.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:827px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Approximately 10km into UA territory and especially in an area that should be teeming with UA forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa05fd0e3-f64f-4a36-a794-a7879b2c1dac_1062x777.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa05fd0e3-f64f-4a36-a794-a7879b2c1dac_1062x777.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:891px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>So how does it look on the elevation maps?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f5b3881-9994-42d2-a504-83d3a037f85c_1012x682.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f5b3881-9994-42d2-a504-83d3a037f85c_1012x682.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:887px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>UA has had the heights on their side right up to the border, and this area should have been opportune to defend. I thought that&#8217;s exactly what they were doing &#8211; holding dominant terrain at the border?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What&#8217;s happening?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s hard to see anything else happening than UA being weak in the area and RU moving forward, but they really shouldn&#8217;t be at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Assuming they&#8217;re not pooling capabilities for a massive offensive right now, and the prisoner exchange is ongoing, and Trump has just initiated another round of peace talks, so it&#8217;s hard to believe that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Good news &#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since March, Ukraine has started the &#8220;Donbass line.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F609f3b76-81cd-4769-8ac8-6dbfd31516b0_828x1137.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F609f3b76-81cd-4769-8ac8-6dbfd31516b0_828x1137.jpeg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This should be seen as a worst-case scenario, and we&#8217;re not there yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Against renewed <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Russian?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Russian<\/a> \ud83c\uddf7\ud83c\uddfa attack efforts, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Ukraine?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Ukraine<\/a> \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6 has not been idle, and is currently building the New Donbas Line, which stretches from <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Kharkiv?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Kharkiv<\/a> city to <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/VilnePole?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#VilnePole<\/a> (<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Zaporizhzhia?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Zaporizhzhia<\/a>), and which is the fruit of years of drone war experience and, finally, error correction.<br>In\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5J6k3TEvT2\">pic.twitter.com\/5J6k3TEvT2<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Playfra (@Playfra0) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Playfra0\/status\/1928183254089429005?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 29, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As I have gone through which areas UA will have difficulty holding, I have thus guessed correctly &#8211; giving myself 10 stars out of five possible because this one appeared to me first yesterday exactly how the alignment went.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As you can see, they are releasing the area between Kharkiv &#8211; Kupiansk and all terrain east of Oskil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They are retreating quite a bit on all fronts, and this fortification map does not include the southern front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, if you&#8217;re quick-witted after attending Johan&#8217;s No.1 school for geniuses, you&#8217;ll notice that this defense line is outside Donetsk Oblast \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead of building circular wagon forts that, when they fall, open up an entire area, they have built a defense system in depth with individual T-shaped defense systems overlapping each other, and several of them in depth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the Russian bastards capture one T, they have another T right behind it and have to repeat the suicide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is very good, and there is a high probability that it will stop here \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine&#8217;s own Surovikin line, well-built and deadly as a viper \u270a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This says a lot about where we are heading &#8211; what we have guessed about Europe and Trump, Ukraine knows better than us, and they have built a Maginot Line in dominant terrain that they believe they can defend, which is outside Donetsk Oblast, the area Putin has demanded since 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine does not expect the active support from Europe that would be needed to regain its land, they do not trust Trump, they believe the West is war-weary and will pressure Ukraine to accept a ceasefire as soon as Putin waves his finger and the concessions are not sky-high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Exactly what we have also seen, with the difference that while we sit and sulk and write, Ukraine is preparing to retain as much of its land as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Putin has managed the somewhat incredible feat of getting the West to stop Ukraine since the turn of the year so that Russia could get organized for its summer offensive. Whether he has succeeded in that is something I am struggling hard to accept, that our leaders could be so infinitely naive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It gives the expression &#8220;we have been naive&#8221; a whole new meaning almost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What UA is doing is at least ensuring that they retain control over how much land they will be forced to give up when this gradually lands &#8211; risk minimization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And that they give Putin Donetsk so he is satisfied, they are pragmatic too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine will never be able to regain the area east of Oskil unless Russia falls, and we can be sure that the West does not want that at all &#8211; historically clueless cowards who missed the chance of the millennium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>89,000 targets in a month in the drone war is not bad \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3998662-ukrainian-drones-hit-over-89000-russian-targets-in-may-cinc-syrskyi.html\">https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3998662-ukrainian-drones-hit-over-89000-russian-targets-in-may-cinc-syrskyi.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have also noticed a shift &#8211; &#8220;Zapad25 is no threat,&#8221; &#8220;Belarus is no threat,&#8221; &#8220;Russia is no threat,&#8221; and I am quite surprised by this because Russia is currently gearing up for further offensives, which anyone following the war can see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even Gregg talks about everything being calmer at the fronts, but RU is gaining ground every day &#8211; how does that fit together, a lull but RU is advancing?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If I were a leader in Europe and knew how Russia constantly lies, I would have screamed and sent all brigades with at least bicycles to the easternmost Baltics &#8211; but that&#8217;s not happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So there is a suspicion that perhaps Europe has already agreed to this from Europe&#8217;s side, even if Zelensky may still have to guess a bit for now and play it safe \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia has probably promised to de-escalate as soon as they have taken what they want in Ukraine, which is essentially the pieces before the Donbass line, and if Europe promises not to intervene militarily, there will be no increased conflict this year in the Baltics or Belarus in connection with Zapad25 &#8211; something like that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The puzzle pieces fit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A sacrificial pawn for peace in our time, they are probably still arguing about which of the idiots should get off the plane and wave the signed peace agreement, Macron usually wins those things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This could also explain why RU is advancing right now while losses are decreasing &#8211; Ukraine has a reality to deal with, and to not completely lose face domestically, they might be conducting a delaying action until the main defense line?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Having a bad day after the Friday binge crashed, but starting to suspect that this is decided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, you&#8217;re thinking correctly because you attended Johan&#8217;s No.1 knowledge school &#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Ukraine agrees to a ceasefire, Putin gets his piece of land &#8211; he and his imperial ambitions emerge strengthened from this grand fiasco. If you get infinitely many new chances, it was bound to happen eventually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the start of the war, we have said &#8211; &#8220;if Putin gets a piece of land, no matter how small, he can declare a win and wriggle out of this&#8221; and that was of course completely right analysis already in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1, 2, 3&#8230; first the USA and then countries in Europe will start easing everything against Russia, back to normal as soon as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for Merz, I actually don&#8217;t know, but we know Scholz would have sprinted first \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Macron has probably already burned the bridge with Russia, and northern Europe will keep the borders closed. This will create significant division within the EU, by the way.<\/p>\n\n\n<p>Ukraine will feel betrayed and unemployed soldiers will find new jobs in the underworld of Europe. They are creating the future that Europe denied them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There may not be more refugees, but Russia will polarize significantly with those who already exist &#8211; and then engage in subversive activities in Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, Poland, the Baltics, and all of Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The big question you want an answer to then is &#8211; is it over and there was peace in our time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Was our strategy to let Ukraine bleed out until Russia got tired sensible, was it winning and morally right because we always know best?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hell no, this is just the beginning, largely due to Europe having completely messed up everything over three years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the USA, it is important to understand that they do not want what is best for Europe &#8211; they never have, they are probably quite content if we live under some pressure from Russia so we stay down. I have gone so far as to believe that Trump is trying to push the risk onto Europe so that the EUR takes the hit instead of the USD, but it&#8217;s a bit shaky there &#8211; blowing both hot and cold, and sometimes you fleetingly get some hope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have seen a Hitler-Germany being born and growing &#8211; it has been instructive to say the least, but it also tells us that the country is now a self-playing piano in the Olympic discipline of expansion through war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This has only just begun, so if we reach this ceasefire that Ukraine is now preparing for, where are we then &#8211; 1938?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After three years of heroic sacrifice by Ukraine where we could have avoided global conflict \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We can ignore Trump because he is part of the USA and he has a hidden agenda just like Biden et al. do. They are playing a geopolitical game where our future in Europe is not their main concern at all, and they prefer not to have a too strong Europe either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But our own leaders, the EU, our experts, our officials, and military &#8211; how is it even possible that they have managed to miss the obvious?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this year&#8217;s round of peace negotiations, Ukraine has done us a great service by bringing everything to the surface so we could follow it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It seems clear that in Europe, we so eagerly want peace that we are willing to do anything to appease Putin for a beautiful peace in our time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Putin is well aware of this and has played the twelve-string like a cunning medieval bard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I believe that so far in the war, we are far below in consequences for Russia than their worst-case scenario showed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They went to the bunkers in Samara for nothing, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine always manages, but we are heading towards increased global conflict and Ukraine has offered to take the full blow for three years only if they were allowed to take down Russia &#8211; but they were not allowed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think you also see how it is brewing politically domestically in Sweden and in more countries in Europe &#8211; of course, Russia is involved and amplifying everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And just wait until the EU cannot agree on Ukraine joining the EU&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s quite exhausting \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are some more exciting things &#8211; RU has established proper training camps with Ukrainian children, and it is quite clear that they are to become our time&#8217;s Janissaries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Between 125,000 &#8211; 700,000 have been reported, and they are all in different stages of radicalization and military training now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They probably also have a few million living in occupied areas that they can mobilize for war?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia is completely militarized, indoctrinated, and radicalized today, so it probably won&#8217;t be difficult to muster a few million more soldiers from Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You know as well as I do that soldiers from Muscovite Russia have not died many except for prisoners and unwanted individuals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A few -places might be in a bad position soon, but then we have round two in Europe &#8211; because it will definitely come, be sure of that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Finnish border and the eastern border through Ukraine are like a Maginot Line that actually works unlike in 1940. The French ran as soon as they saw a German soldier, but Finnish and Ukrainian soldiers fall in their trenches behind piles of cartridge cases, the world&#8217;s best marksmanship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia will try to politically bring down Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, and then start deploying Russian troops there &#8211; no one will prevent them from using the Black Sea for transport. The Balkans and the Visegrad countries are fragile and probably not very difficult to influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The EU cannot do anything when the pro-Russian candidate wins in the elections and the countries orient themselves towards Russia, and if an election is needed before the regular election, they will just commit political suicide to get there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Round two in Ukraine will probably be an attack from all sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then they will naturally try to politically bring down Poland and the Baltics as well, and the Baltics will be targeted as soon as they think they can handle it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It would be nice if I was right that the war would end this year, just that it didn&#8217;t go at all as hoped \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Europe is the very definition of being ungrateful and not being able to see when others do something good for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You can be sure that this will be sold as a huge victory, and those of us who feel that it was one of history&#8217;s great mistakes will be seen as oddballs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But as I said &#8211; Ukraine has control over the landing and will not be completely overrun, we can rejoice in that small victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Those of you who see a different development than this one, please feel free to share it so we can have some hope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you liked the post &#8211; please share it in your channels and most importantly, feel free to share the English version with people you think might appreciate posts and comments they haven&#8217;t been able to read before. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/\">https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Continued appreciation for the site is always gratefully received, and there is a QR code for that purpose as well as a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Substack &#8211; there is still a chance to become subscribers and it is valuable to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:ohanno1.se\">johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:substack.com\/@johanno1\">substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\">https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday two news came, Ukraine has control over the landing but a bit of a mixed bag &#8211; \u201cAs of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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