{"id":1711,"date":"2025-06-03T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-03T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-june-3-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-06-04T06:57:57","modified_gmt":"2025-06-04T04:57:57","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-june-3-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-june-3-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update June 3, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Ukraine has now given the West the upper hand &#8211; since 2022, the West has always squandered these advantages, but early statements from leaders in Europe are positive and say that this is within Ukraine&#8217;s right to self-defense, and no one that I can find has condemned Ukraine?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We know that Russia can only respond with more violence until it collapses, and now they must deal with this in one way or another to save Putin&#8217;s face before he ends up hanging there in the gas station.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for Putin, this is Merz&#8217;s fault because after Merz&#8217;s statement, 10 government planes flew to the war bunkers in Samara, but nothing happened &#8211; and then this liberation act happened just as they were about to return to Moscow. There have probably been many anxious WhatsApp messages to Trump\u00a0\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What options does Russia have &#8211; drag out the war and drone away one big target at a time, try to take down all of Ukraine when they have just built a nice defense line a few miles further back that RU can never get through, or escalate while they can?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I know what I believe, but we&#8217;ll see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday you got the map to how Ukraine wins this war, and unless they win, this won&#8217;t end for us in Europe &#8211; if the West can only respond proportionally when\/if Russia escalates, this might end this year. Spectacular efforts like these also do wonders for motivation in the country and among the troops, giving them the will to continue. I don&#8217;t remember if I included Operation Turn Off the Light, but you know about that from before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We haven&#8217;t heard anything concrete from Diaper-Don at the time of completing this post, which was evening your time, but (former) General Flynn was out criticizing Ukraine, so maybe a trial balloon?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, Merz is going to the USA this week to talk to Trump &#8211; we&#8217;ll see if Merz starts to nuance his statements after that or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is a high probability that Ukraine intends to carry out a Hiroshima-Nagasaki and show Russia that they have more capacity to hit where it hurts now that they can finally do it after over three years (or can they&#8230;) &#8211; they are showing strength because that is the only language Russia understands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2023, Russia was supposed to start piracy in the Black Sea if they weren&#8217;t allowed back into SWIFT, and all leaders in Europe thought SWIFT was a good idea until Ukraine chased away the Russian fleet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Kerch Bridge is a safe bet, and then the Black Sea Fleet (again) &#8211; RU has been moving the fleet around in recent weeks, and you don&#8217;t win any prizes for guessing that RU will now try to seek revenge, and then the fleet&#8217;s caliber platforms are important. Ukraine knows this and will try to strike if the opportunity arises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The cruiser Moscow was hysterically funny &#8211; a UA liaison officer was in a US radar surveillance center in Germany when Moscow suddenly appeared on the screen, and he immediately said, &#8220;just going to have a quick cigarette, back in five,&#8221; and jogged off. Moscow was then sunk, and the US staff in Germany were furious with the liaison officer, who just walked around with his widest smile for weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The next target is likely the fighter jets they are now trying to combat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If they have targeted the strategic bomber belonging to the nuclear triad, silos, nuclear weapon manufacturing, islander platforms, and nuclear weapon depots, are they still protected, or are they military targets?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They ARE military targets, and Merz was clear, but did he mean what he said &#8211; or rather, did he understand the full implications of what he said\ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Above all, the Iskander platforms are highly legitimate targets, just like the strategic bombers, because Russia uses them for its terror bombing, and that cannot be talked away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This week, the entire Western defense forces are probably considering how to update their base protections &#8211; in the UK, we have half of the air tanker fleet, and in Asia, the US has its airbases. Once again &#8211; there have been warnings for a long time that short-haired Chinese people moving in groups of four have crossed the border from Mexico into the USA, flown around filming and taking pictures, so nothing conspiratorial at all. In Europe, we have as many containers from China as we want, and then our own gangs and criminal clans to deal with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An interesting rope trick for China to go for Taiwan, and the security service is probably searching through every container in the country this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s a good idea &#8211; buy Ukrainian Sentinel AI weapon stations for anti-drone protection, they cost 1.5 million SEK when everything else we have in the West costs at least ten times that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine talks about negotiations all the time, even today, but to take out the strategic bomber the day before doesn&#8217;t exactly indicate a desperation to negotiate &#8211; and also releasing all the information on Twitter adds extra pain for the Russians, making Putin weaker, so the willingness to negotiate becomes even more distant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Zelensky, by the way, warns just like us that Russia intends to escalate in the summer &#8211; fall, and we are already in June\u00a0\ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That cannot be misunderstood, and he rhetorically says, &#8220;what do your own security services tell you,&#8221; which means he knows that they are warning about it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff376bb99-7d4f-4232-8a46-090ec8f718b4_828x1238.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff376bb99-7d4f-4232-8a46-090ec8f718b4_828x1238.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ci3.googleusercontent.com\/meips\/ADKq_Naoelh2Gm4hYKB2nlJINPIOPw_gwRG1T_Ok7dmTPXjxLG0zPszi2HiciyA3UNbQR2QWd-UsQk5DwT8S2SahTlRdc0cjWyNKhQiPQtKNwGWcx82R0ataorfF_4k9XGxFyoWTOOjq24-nFqWkefaWi16synsq4SxIC5Jsb076T0-eLYgzNSOJgdxy6_c2vXcw_dS8Nwk3489WWWpnONRnCBsBYePoB-uP2plU_9ncX6AagAjQDIV7uKq6WskL3q2E9uJPYUMXRnRj1CA0WSfHhEYyVDqYL-7lrb74CjtpcR2VGiemvHR_1hE7eQE=s0-d-e1-ft#https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff376bb99-7d4f-4232-8a46-090ec8f718b4_828x1238.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:365px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>You have probably also noticed how demonstrations of discontent are increasing in Europe &#8211; now a huge demonstration for Palestine is supposed to be held in Stockholm, for example, we have quite a few &#8220;terror attacks&#8221; and further around Europe, and of course, Robinson is out of prison in the UK and has called for a major demonstration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nigel Farage has also woken up a bit by chance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have read previous posts, as you should to learn the latest and become geniuses, you will know that Russia will roll out a huge subversive operation and sabotage across Europe this summer, where the right, left, and Islamists will all demonstrate for their core issues, preferably in the same place. Criminal clans and gangs all have beef with each other and the majority society &#8211; we have described it in a few posts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It seems to be starting to pick up a bit\u00a0\ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have long parked the Palestinian demonstrations as a Russian influence operation, even though Israel is not helping here because the issue is gaining broad sympathy now, and rightly so. But it does so at a time when all of Europe should be fully focused on supporting Ukraine as that war has a direct impact on us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Have you heard about the major power outage on the Iberian Peninsula recently, and above all &#8211; could it happen again?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We know that already on Sunday, the power grid in the UK was unstable, and then on Monday morning at 09:30, it was significantly unstable in Spain before it started to fail around lunchtime. This has completely disappeared from the reporting, but it was credible media that reported it at the time, and I posted the links in the post.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now Spain has found ground zero &#8211; a substation in Granada, but they don&#8217;t know why.<\/p>\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/my-europe\/2025\/05\/15\/spain-identifies-power-failure-ground-zero-as-search-for-iberian-blackout-cause-continues\">https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/my-europe\/2025\/05\/15\/spain-identifies-power-failure-ground-zero-as-search-for-iberian-blackout-cause-continues<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My question then is &#8211; if the power grid was already unstable in the UK on Sunday so that a lot of production started to shut down, does anyone believe that ground zero was in Granada on Monday around lunchtime?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Possibly, it was ground zero for cascading effects on electricity production in Spain around lunchtime on Monday, but it was not the root cause because they have not yet figured out what preceded the substation shutting down, or what it did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It doesn&#8217;t feel like Europe is taking this seriously, and it&#8217;s easy to understand why &#8211; the power grid is interconnected, but we are many different countries each running our own race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Question two &#8211; there was a rumor that China had inserted backdoors in their solar panels, which have been found in the USA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/sustainability\/climate-energy\/ghost-machine-rogue-communication-devices-found-chinese-inverters-2025-05-14\">https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/sustainability\/climate-energy\/ghost-machine-rogue-communication-devices-found-chinese-inverters-2025-05-14<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Does anyone believe that China is NOT inserting backdoors in all their products, especially solar panels, which would then have the advantage of being able to short-circuit the entire European power grid &#8211; it would almost be a disservice for China not to insert backdoors in them?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since environmental movements, among others, have managed to shut down all our swing mass (nuclear power) and backup power, our electricity system is apparently as fragile as a delicate porcelain bird and can be short-circuited by 3-4 fires at substations in different locations within a geographically convenient area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Does anyone believe that Russia will NOT do that to us now that we know they have tried to cut a total of 11 underwater cables in the Baltic Sea?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Do we have surveillance at all substations in Europe &#8211; no, of course we don&#8217;t\u00a0\ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Politically, it&#8217;s also messy in Europe, and Romania, Moldova, France, and Germany have barely managed to fend off pro-Russian candidates, but all have paid a high price for it as pro-Russians are more popular than ever because of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Netherlands has already failed, and Keir Starmer is facing huge problems in the UK now, it&#8217;s hard to see him completing his term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Poland, the pro-Russian presidential candidate actually won, what does that mean for Poland&#8217;s willingness to defend the Baltics this fall if needed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The president doesn&#8217;t have much power, but it says a lot about the currents in the country now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In order to defend the Baltics, NATO and Europe must be able to move troops through Poland, and Polish forces will probably have to enter Lithuania at least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Russia manages to lock down Poland so that the parliament cannot vote on what is needed for a few weeks, it could get really tough &#8211; you know those parliamentarians no one can name but whose vote is worth as much as anyone else&#8217;s, the ones who took the money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is therefore declining politically to have the opportunity in Europe to support Ukraine to a victory in the war, and as soon as Russia is ready for a ceasefire, Europe will see it as an attractive alternative, a quick fix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How is it possible when we know what a murderous sect the Russian army is&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are there in time when Russia eventually reaches the Donbass line. Ukraine has understood the political landscape in Europe, and that&#8217;s why they are building their Maginot Line outside the area they know Russia will want to conquer before Putin agrees to a ceasefire. Analysts have suggested that it is out of drone range and in dominant terrain, but the line curves just outside Donetsk Oblast so the purpose is obvious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What makes Europe&#8217;s leaders weak cowards who don&#8217;t want to solve a 300-year-old problem when Ukraine has the solution on a silver platter and also promises to do all the work?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I believe there are several reasons beyond the fact that politics are swinging making it increasingly difficult to secure a majority in votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1. I tried to clarify this with the Macron slap incident, but it was missed, and instead the question asked was if I also get beaten by my wife\u00a0\ud83d\ude10 &#8211; our elected officials are just ordinary people who have families and careers, and they never have unrestricted power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As soon as you go against Russia, you as a person will be subjected to the full GRU subversive treatment. This is the dark secret we never hear about &#8211; our elected officials are afraid of Putin because it can end their careers badly in various ways from accidents to those pictures one thought were private.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A modern classic is to have images or videos inserted into the work computer through hackers that then trigger the IT department at work. It becomes a rather strained meeting with the boss, the security chief, and many accusing glances. It doesn&#8217;t matter if the investigation is dropped after a year because you have been suspended from work, the media has crucified you a hundred times over, and the divorce has gone through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The minister who went from standing at the forefront and shaking a fist at Russia like a true hero is now at home experimenting with different whiskey brands full time and feeling sorry for themselves. The kids were busy when they tried to call and say that the investigation had been dropped, and the life partner has already been seen in the media with another colleague at the government office &#8211; everyone has moved on and no one wants to socialize with a loser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even before all these Russian career killers, it is much easier for a career to not make any difficult decisions at all. Approaching a war with Russia is a drastic step that few want to take to begin with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And for Russia, steel helmets were seen as a declaration of war that would trigger a nuclear response in 2022 &#8211; they know EXACTLY how to play the game of getting our leaders to do as little as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because that&#8217;s the whole point &#8211; to delay important decisions for as long as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2. Europe considers itself not ready for war and needs to buy time (a mistaken image but the red storm is probably still there?) &#8211; now, after three years, we have reached the point where we are arming ourselves, but it is not to help Ukraine regain its land but for our national defense. This is also attractive for decision-makers because a new industry is showered in money, and as politicians, they show decisiveness without having to make tough decisions. Everyone is happy, and for the industrious, there is much gratitude to be paid for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What actually happens here is that Ukraine has the cash now, but there is nothing left to buy, and they end up at the back of the line for various arms manufacturers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The quick-witted remember that Hungary and Slovakia have placed large orders for CV90 and Gripen, for example\u00a0\ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3. It is politically impossible to wage war against Russia today in Europe, as soon as the first thousand fallen soldiers come home in pieces, the government falls because the opposition is too strong in (almost) all of Europe. It is enough if Russia activates a few sleepers in the parliaments, then you won&#8217;t get a majority or you face a vote of no confidence. Probably only Finland is ready, and Denmark has also succeeded actually thanks to Mette Fredrikssen, I guess, too bad there&#8217;s an election there in a year.<\/p>\n\n\n<p>What I suspect is that Russia has threatened Europe with a significant escalation in the summer\/fall and at the same time offered to de-escalate only if they get that last piece of land in Donbass. Yes, discussions are ongoing all the time where Ukraine is not involved, and probably Trump is being used as a go-between?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The person who, after Finland, perhaps has the strongest mandate to achieve something is Trump, but it is quite clear that he wants Ukraine to meet Russia halfway and capitulate, Orange Shitgibbon is a fitting name \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finland cannot be expected to send anything at all because they have a shell protection to take care of.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Either Ukraine rolls out the asymmetric warfare described in yesterday&#8217;s post, or we are de facto at the point where Ukraine will not win the war by reclaiming its land, and where Putin will then be able to declare himself the victor and be hailed by rogue states as the great despot of our time who defeated NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is now zero reason for Putin to slow down his subversive activities, which also pay very well \u2013 surely he receives a lot of EUR that he can use to buy weapons that way too, not just from the oil and LNG that the EU still buys from Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>GRU has criminal clans and gangs that have already infiltrated civil society throughout Europe, so today there is no need for infiltrated spy rings with 15 years of growth, just a company that pays someone&#8217;s AB for lectures or other services impossible to verify \u2013 and the budget for this is still hidden in Europe&#8217;s banking system because we refuse to freeze the funds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since we have had good times, we have had politicians who have not needed to behave directly, and all of Europe has roughly the same problems as us with crime, education, healthcare, and the job market. Broad segments of society are dissatisfied, and GRU experts are adept at playing on and amplifying that dissatisfaction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the EU, there was also an opportunity to increase power to gain more relevance, and it has grown significantly, so there is also a large portion of anti-EU sentiment in broad segments of the population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is thus a lot to draw from opposition candidates, and throughout 2024, we have seen how close they have come to taking over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The countermove will be quite delicate \u2013 they got rid of Le Pen with an Al Capone maneuver, but then the next candidate becomes a threat \u2013 they create martyrs, and there is always someone behind them who takes over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Germany bans AfD, but it is perceived as undemocratic by too many, and AfD is now the largest party in Germany in opinion polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Europe is simply not in order after over three years of high-intensity interstate war in our immediate vicinity, and that is remarkable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I thought it looked very promising at the turn of the year \u2013 the equipment arrived, and Ukraine had the upper hand in drone warfare for a while, and then everything came to a complete stop when everyone wanted to discuss peace until June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Trump had come out strong on January 20, this would have been settled with a no-fly zone and European troops in western Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now it didn&#8217;t happen because Trump has his reasons to stroke Putin&#8217;s ego, and we have a reality to deal with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is simply too attractive for our elected officials in Europe to have a ceasefire, and both Putin and Trump know that, so those are the strings they are playing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Peace in our time \u2013 until Putin starts round two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, it will be a couple of exciting months where we will see if our leaders are prepared to respond proportionally to Russian escalation or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine is doing all the work for us, so it shouldn&#8217;t be too difficult, I think. The only thing we need to do ourselves is to immediately mine the border to the Baltics again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you liked the post \u2013 please share it in your channels, and most importantly, feel free to share the English version with people you think might appreciate posts and comments they haven&#8217;t been able to read before.&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Continued appreciation for the site is always welcome, and there is a QR code for that purpose, as well as a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Substack \u2013 there is still a chance to become subscribers and valuable to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:ohanno1.se\" target=\"_blank\">johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:substack.com\/@johanno1\" target=\"_blank\">substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\">https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ukraine has now given the West the upper hand &#8211; since 2022, the West has always squandered these advantages, but [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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