Many who support Ukraine are pleased with the US attack on the energy facilities in Iran.
Partly, the threat of them acquiring nuclear weapons has been averted, which could threaten not only Israel but also many other countries, and partly as a supporter of Ukraine, one is especially pleased as it is a setback for Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One must not forget that for the Iranian population, this could lead to liberation if the current regime falls, and then it could be a step towards a more democratic and open society, which would also be very positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Regarding the war in Ukraine, I argue that it is, on the contrary, a great advantage for Russia, but let’s start at the other end:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Geopolitically, this could lead to losing most of its influence in the region, especially if Iran were to fall completely. In the short term, it does not have much significance for the war in Ukraine, but of course, it is something that Russia probably wants to avoid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another disadvantage is that Russia risks missing out on deliveries of important components needed for the production of Shaheds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They also import Mohajer-6 drones and some other equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The war in Iran will likely result in certain facilities being knocked out, but if nothing else, Iran will probably need everything they can produce themselves in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are, of course, no exact figures, but there are estimates that Russia has imported military components, etc., for up to 1.5 billion USD so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Shaheds are used by Russia to terrorize the Ukrainian population. Admittedly, they sometimes manage to hit important infrastructure, energy production, and industries.
It affects Ukraine negatively in many ways, but perhaps mainly through killed and injured civilians. In the long run, it could affect the population and make them war-weary and eventually willing to accept unfavorable peace conditions. So far, it has probably been the opposite; the Ukrainian population stands more united than ever, and it has rather shown the cruelty that Russia is capable of and what it could mean if they were forced to give up.
Shaheds probably do not contribute to military successes for Russia; they are not even used at the front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I have just diminished the significance of Shaheds, but we can start with them anyway.
Regarding Shaheds, it is not impossible that Russia can now convince Iran to also hand over technology so that Russia can manufacture all components themselves in exchange for weapon deliveries.
So, Russia has the opportunity to become completely self-sufficient (apart from the electronics already imported from China, of course) and they could also offer Iran to build Shaheds for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But as you have probably already figured out, the major advantage is, of course, economic and depends on rising oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Already when Israel attacked Iran, the price rose from around 60 USD\/barrel to over 70. Many now fear that it could reach as high as 100 USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But how much does this mean for Russia?
If the price reaches between 90-100, it represents a significantly increased income for Russia. It could amount to between 3-6 billion USD per month, approximately 20-40 billion USD in the coming six months if prices were to remain at that level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia is in an economic crisis, even though they present figures outwardly that rather indicate an upturn, showing growth in GDP, a growth stemming from a war industry producing military equipment that is then used in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
An addition of 20-40 billion USD is a huge amount of money if it is allocated to their war industry.
It is estimated to be around 100-150 billion per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is enough, for example, to pay and equip about 250,000 soldiers.
It is enough to purchase quantities of equipment and grenades from North Korea.
It is enough to significantly expand the factories producing Shaheds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the war in Iran becomes protracted, it could mean an extra 40-80 billion USD per year for Russia. Compare that to the estimate that Russia has bought equipment from Iran for about 1.5 billion USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So, Russia earns a tremendous amount of money from the war in Iran due to the increased oil prices, which unfortunately is a major disadvantage for Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are various estimates, but according to Support Tracker, the EU and the USA together have donated about 312 billion USD to Ukraine since the war started, with Europe accounting for 156.
The war has been going on for almost 3.5 years, which means that Europe has donated about 40-50 billion USD per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The likelihood is high that the USA will not donate more to Ukraine.
So, Europe must almost double its contribution to compensate for the USA, and then we will still only give slightly more than what corresponds to Russia’s income increase due to higher oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The war in Ukraine has turned into a war of attrition where the economy is one of the most important factors, and now Russia has received a significant income increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tomorrow we will see exactly how much when we can see the current oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For all involved, we must hope that the war in Iran ends as soon as possible, even though I fear it will be prolonged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Until then, the only thing we can do is increase our support for Ukraine. Many who support Ukraine are pleased with the US attack on the energy facilities in Iran.Partly, the threat of them […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1166,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[29],"class_list":["post-1886","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ukraine","tag-war-in-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"\n
SLAVA UKRAINI<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"