{"id":2144,"date":"2025-07-16T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-16T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-july-16-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-07-16T22:34:55","modified_gmt":"2025-07-16T20:34:55","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-july-16-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-july-16-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update July 16, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Today, we will go through the fronts and I don&#8217;t find it particularly uplifting reading at all. My immediate question is what Europe&#8217;s leaders are thinking, feeling, and experiencing when they receive the same briefings (that I usually do for them)?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have long advocated that we should look at what is happening and not report everything that is said and take it as absolute truth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our leaders have to try to assess whether Ukraine is falling apart or not, and then try to ensure that they do not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Considering what was said in 2022 by the leaders with the worst impulse control, evidently many hoped that Ukraine would just give up so that everything could return to normal \u2013 the Ukrainians were troublesome for not allowing themselves to be eradicated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, Scholz, the eel&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This one was also interesting, now Zelensky is a good source and Igor Shushko is at least pro-Ukrainian. Biden played with Ukraine&#8217;s sovereignty for a better and brighter world and happier children \ud83d\ude4f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-bluesky-social wp-block-embed-bluesky-social\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"bluesky-embed\" data-bluesky-uri=\"at:\/\/did:plc:djvd4ko5fkhziyzmstdcno4c\/app.bsky.feed.post\/3ltxdw4e4s22k\" data-bluesky-cid=\"bafyreifobkqbvdjzahbmrljzevc6l62hby44lto2anxgvww55knza5gwie\"><p lang=\"sv\">bsky.app\/profile\/igor&#8230;<\/p>&mdash; <a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:djvd4ko5fkhziyzmstdcno4c?ref_src=embed\">Pehr (@afnorstroms.bsky.social)<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/did:plc:djvd4ko5fkhziyzmstdcno4c\/post\/3ltxdw4e4s22k?ref_src=embed\">2025-07-14T21:37:41.089Z<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/embed.bsky.app\/static\/embed.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>We no longer need to guess about Trump \u2013 he is in direct contact with Putin or with an intermediary and does what he can to facilitate Putin&#8217;s ethnic cleansing of Ukraine. What exactly he gains from it remains for me to figure out, but it is certainly not good for Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the cases of Trump, Biden, and Scholz, they probably had slightly different motivations for why an overrun Ukraine wasn&#8217;t\/isn&#8217;t really that bad if they can just consider making this small sacrifice for the greater good of the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I believe (know) that Europe&#8217;s leaders were also of the opinion until at least the fall of 2025 that the worst thing that could happen was that Ukraine was forced into peace. Putin played everyone in the usual way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Starmer, Merz, and Macron even pushed that line all spring and promised biblical consequences for Putin which they then immediately backed down on \u2013 a pure art of the deal in that negotiation, they must have read the book \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I didn&#8217;t think that Russia could sustain its high-intensity war much longer after Trump took office, and I thought that Putin would be eager to have frozen fronts under Trump and keep what he had taken, so a gross underestimation of my part in terms of ambition level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What did I rely on then \u2013 they didn&#8217;t manage to retake Kursk, the refineries were on fire, knocked out heavy vehicles were older, doctrine changed to swarming infantry, the North Koreans arrived, the artillery was broken, UA drone weapons gained the upper hand, and Biden had to go so the stumbling blocks&#8217; stumbling block was rounded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Choose one of two \u2013 the condition of UA was a bit worse than I guessed or RU managed to get organized after countless other chances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Or a combination of both since everything is always relative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tatarigami is a bit worried<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">With increasing frequency, I hear directly from soldiers, sergeants, and officers on the ground: despite proclamations from the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff, little has changed  for them in the ground, compared with 2024. \ud83e\uddf5Thread:<\/p>&mdash; Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Tatarigami_UA\/status\/1945104608264605917?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 15, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>UA had plans for an offensive in the fall of 2024 as usual and they have not carried out offensive operations since the summer of 2023 except for Kursk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RU has been conducting offensive operations since the fall of 2023 and continues to advance to this day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If I were to guess, I think it was a combination, poor support from the West, Biden hesitated in the end, Trump began to sabotage directly, Putin gained higher confidence, Ukraine didn&#8217;t dare to take risks, and so on until we are where we are today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump managed to negotiate away Kursk and the Russians were left alone long enough with a type of warfare they are comfortable with \u2013 offensive on their terms, and they could then build up capability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So the result is that RU has been able to carry out high-intensity offensive operations since the fall of 2023 and continues to do so today in July 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Does Europe have a handle on the situation?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I don&#8217;t think so, and I believe that Ukraine is hiding the worst, but I am curious as to why we have had a total absence of offensive operations since mid-April from the UA side and allowed RU to advance. Either they are stuck in everything is always relative or they have some mischief going on that they are sneaking around with, and we in Europe don&#8217;t know what it is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To me, it looks like an undefinable risk that our leaders in Europe glance at with half an eye and then fall back asleep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now today, in the summer of 2025, every bigwig in Europe also knows that Putin does not intend to stop until Ukraine is no more and that he is casting longing looks all the way down to the Iberian Peninsula and the Portuguese smoked sausages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We probably also know that Trump is not our friend even though his victory perfume is incredibly good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So what assessments are actually being made now when Ukraine retreats at the fronts?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I seem to hear more and more &#8220;Europe must be ready for war,&#8221; &#8220;war in 2027-2030&#8221; not only from the Baltics and Finland but also from our leaders in the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So my usual question, which may be starting to get a bit tiresome, is then \u2013 wouldn&#8217;t the best cost-benefit be to help Ukraine defeat Russia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We provide the cash, and they provide the sacrifices in human lives?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For a better army than Ukraine&#8217;s, we probably have to search, and to discard it would be the height of arrogance since it would directly come back to us like a violent boomerang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the alternative is that Europe will go to war, then I think everything before war is preferable, don&#8217;t you?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So why aren&#8217;t we doing anything?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By &#8220;doing nothing,&#8221; I mean things that have been politically and diplomatically unlocked for a long time and things that are self-defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-why haven&#8217;t the Baltics remilitarized their borders?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-why haven&#8217;t EU countries agreed to send 10-20 brigades to the defense of the Baltics, which have gone into defense in eastern Baltics?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-why haven&#8217;t we shot down robots and drones that have strayed into the rest of Europe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-why haven&#8217;t we stopped the shadow fleet on environmental, insurance, and legal grounds?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-why haven&#8217;t the EU allowed Ukrainian instructors to train our troops, and why haven&#8217;t we, after three years, trained reservists on a large scale and started preparing for war as Finland and the Baltics have done (we have already agreed in the thread to do as Finland \u2013 they are the experts)?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-why haven&#8217;t we overridden Orban and Fico?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I don&#8217;t have good answers here other than it&#8217;s probably a mix of not wanting to escalate, being cowardly, and not daring to make the tough decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Baltics are exposed, and we are still giving Russia a lot of euros for its arms industry through our purchases of oil and gas that we allow the shadow fleet to transport undisturbed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for Putin, it&#8217;s still open season, I guess, or do you see something that I don&#8217;t see, some red line he would respect \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And then we have the slightly tougher decisions that we could actually get away with if we were a bit more daring risk-takers. We can probably assume that now when we have seen how Putin reacts de facto when his red lines are crossed, he grumbles a little quietly and turns away.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>-LV or no-fly zone west of the Dnieper.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>-take care of border protection at the Belarus border, Polish SOF in customs uniforms. Another suggestion has been to locate all training of Ukrainian units with Western instructors up by the Belarusian border.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>-allocate resources to Ukraine seriously from our stocks, we have HUGE amounts of weapons we could send and armor protection is what&#8217;s important. Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, and the UK don&#8217;t need heavy vehicles, for example.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>What do we think here then \u2013 we can&#8217;t agree, too difficult a decision for career politicians, cowardice, Russian subversive activities where they use all the tools in the box, the US would complain heavily, and the lack of trust in each other including Ukraine?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Neither of the above is particularly flattering and it is quite clear that we have had good times and that our politicians find it difficult to start working according to the job description.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Unfortunately, Europe is not getting stronger but weaker, now Spain has taken the step over to the dark side and the Czech Republic is also at risk.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>But perhaps the most important thing is that we have not yet embraced warfare in 2025, which Russia has learned the hard way and China is trying to get ahead of.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Sweden has planned to train 10,000 conscripts\/year until 2030.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.regeringen.se\/regeringens-politik\/totalforsvar\/forsvarsbeslutet-20252030\">https:\/\/www.regeringen.se\/regeringens-politik\/totalforsvar\/forsvarsbeslutet-20252030<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Isn&#8217;t it time to introduce broad military training for everyone of the right age to be able to kill Russians today (17-63 \ud83d\ude00)?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If we lack instructors, there are hundreds of thousands of experienced Ukrainian former soldiers who are unemployed and looking for work.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Yes, I also see that not much is happening, especially in the drone weapon area, but that&#8217;s how it is.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>We will get away with this slowness as long as Ukraine doesn&#8217;t collapse, but if they do \u2013 then we will be left with exactly the whole problem and own it. And the US stands on the sidelines laughing and starting to sell everything to us at double the price.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If I were a European politician, I would ensure that Ukraine can liberate its country even if the risk is that Russia becomes a country with a hundred warlords. Them or us \u2013 eat or be eaten.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>I still believe that Trump is destabilizing the EU, I&#8217;ve been airing this for a while now and it seems so. Increasing spending in NATO is certainly needed but it also means increased expenses, and now it&#8217;s Europe that has to pay for the weapons Ukraine is supposed to receive from the US. Which, one could argue, is well done by Trump, but I&#8217;m trying to make a different point \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Apparently, it&#8217;s their warehouse they&#8217;re picking from and therefore.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>China is still holding back some materials\/resources and we went through at some point what they could do by creating shortages.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Trump&#8217;s idiotic tariff war because he&#8217;s an idiot is probably following a Russian model or wish and not at all idiotic, but he keeps adjusting himself all the time?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>He even hit Japan when they took it very seriously and sent a delegation to Washington with twelve-pointers &#8211; the US didn&#8217;t even bother to respond on WhatsApp.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Then Trump said that since Japan didn&#8217;t want to negotiate, they would face tariffs \u2013 and the Japanese were at the hotel in Washington watching it on TV when they were blocked on WhatsApp and took another bite of sushi.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Same with the EU, we have been the adults in the room but Trump finds (makes up) something that he takes as an excuse to hit us hard with something big in order to harm us. He preferably wants to get us angry and say something on TV that he can refer back to and hit us with even more.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>So far, it&#8217;s mostly Western countries that he has had in his sights, it started with Canada and Mexico, for example?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Yes, he threatens everyone, but if you look at who he goes after.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>UK, China, and Vietnam have received trade deals and Russia is the exception. He has bombed Iran and I couldn&#8217;t find out if he has new tariffs against them \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/7300389\/trump-trade-deals-tariff-letters-deadline\">https:\/\/time.com\/7300389\/trump-trade-deals-tariff-letters-deadline<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>He is variably upset with Canada, Mexico, and the EU, and now we are probably a focal point again?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>I am of the opinion that Trump, following a Russian or his own design, is trying to destabilize the world economically.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>He is doing this at a time when we are already on the brink of a global war.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>I think he was forced to hit Iran because Israel had leveled the country otherwise \u2013 so the least bad option for the mullahs.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>I believe he is trying to destabilize the EU just as he did with Ukraine.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>I didn&#8217;t make it to the fronts \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Will have to be tomorrow.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If you liked the post \u2013 please share it in your channels and above all, please share the English version with people you think may appreciate posts and comments they haven&#8217;t been able to read before. <a href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/\">https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Continued appreciation for the site is always gratefully received and there is a QR code for that purpose as well as a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>On Substack \u2013 there is still a chance to become subscribers and it is valuable to me.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"mailto:ohanno1.se\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"mailto:substack.com\/@johanno1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\">https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today, we will go through the fronts and I don&#8217;t find it particularly uplifting reading at all. My immediate question [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[30],"class_list":["post-2144","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine","tag-ukraine-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ukraine daily update July 16, 2025 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-july-16-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine daily update July 16, 2025 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Today, we will go through the fronts and I don&#8217;t find it particularly uplifting reading at all. 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