{"id":2223,"date":"2025-07-24T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-24T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-july-24-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-07-25T12:11:22","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T10:11:22","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-july-24-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-july-24-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update July 24, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Had to be a post about the war in the middle of the training package on the Russian subversive activities that MSB has paid for\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine will not give up but just like Finland, they may be forced to negotiate, and that is the assessment I am trying to make whether we are approaching or not, and to warn about it because many politicians in Europe do not seem to understand the cascading effects that will wash over us from the outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Europe and the USA have been trying to force Ukraine into this for several years now but they categorically refuse &#8211; at some point it is no longer possible, just like for Finland and Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That was the line Starmer, Macron, and Merz pushed hard for last spring, and also the line Trump pursued but for completely different reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Putin didn&#8217;t even feel the need to play along because he thinks things are going so well in the war right now, and if we look at how things are going at the fronts, it&#8217;s hard to see that he would have made any major mistakes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Don&#8217;t make the mistake of thinking a ceasefire is good, the day we get a ceasefire then Europe is left holding the whole bag &#8211; we&#8217;ve been through this before so serious readers probably don&#8217;t need a refresher on what happens then with over-fattened AK4s in a mob depot in zero-degree drizzle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The same betrayal that we have seen for three years with Ukraine, Finland experienced, and Israel, which was always on the brink of defeat in their wars. The difference from them is that this war has lasted over three years and it is uncharted territory historically &#8211; no one knows how long a country holds together when subjected to this type of totally high-intensity war without any barriers at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No living person today knows how long Ukraine can continue because there are too many variables, for example, if Putin manages to kill Zelensky, it would have major consequences on the spot &#8211; and Putin has already tried to do that 10 times. At the same time, Ukraine did not manage to eliminate Putin in a small drone strike on May 9th even though he is a fully legitimate target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now I am going to deliver an uncomfortable truth that you do not want to hear &#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China is already an active party in this war &#8211; they are a belligerent party along with Iran, North Korea, and many countries in Africa that have sent soldiers to Russia&#8217;s personnel pool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These African countries have incidentally stopped selling natural resources to the West and by coincidence, many of the countries have the existing reserves of &#8220;rare-earth-metals&#8221; found in Africa. The Russian African corps has managed to pinpoint the countries with natural resources that the West will need in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Europe and the USA have allowed Russia to almost crash completely on its own so that they can then rise again with not a little help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The myth that Russia is improving over time is not true &#8211; they needed countless second chances and direct support in the form of leaked attack plans and guarantees, as well as cooperation from the West to avoid a total crash as early as 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On May 9, 2025, China showed the world that they stand by Russia&#8217;s side, they stepped out of the shadows and showed their true face, and they did it because they know they will get away with it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They even managed to get the West not to drone the parade, for example, so they just boosted their self-image a few notches there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You have all seen the production lines for heavy strategic drones recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!20Zf!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd02fc0f-12cd-44d3-8a3d-ce555eb3aeee_828x988.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!20Zf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd02fc0f-12cd-44d3-8a3d-ce555eb3aeee_828x988.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:318px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>China has of course built them and I bet there are production lines inside China sending the drones to Russia so they become &#8220;made in Russia&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia uses 4000 FPV drones per day (check out MXT statistics as a comment here <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/ukraina-daglig-uppdatering-21-juli-2025\/\">https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/ukraina-daglig-uppdatering-21-juli-2025\/<\/a>) and they want to try to reach &#8220;2000 geran per night&#8221; which they won&#8217;t do but probably 500 with some nights in between.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They have built smart platforms &#8211; for example, pick-ups that fire a drone, and they have the production lines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine cannot knock out the factories or platforms &#8211; the drones will continue to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And now China provides 92% of the components for Russian drones, we were informed of this last week, link on my Bluesky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!xliF!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd301810-afa8-4785-8241-d035cedd4605_828x1317.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!xliF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd301810-afa8-4785-8241-d035cedd4605_828x1317.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:328px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Without China, no war, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then China has either stopped buying US government debt or is selling &#8211; can&#8217;t determine this black magic called economics but it has been said before that it is a reason for the US to go to war for and they have done so before for less, like Libya for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Is China already too strong &#8211; I don&#8217;t know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What the UK had to do in return for a trade deal, I think everyone knows now \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!qb0Z!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ba55de4-e890-474a-a1bb-7c4c332aab64_828x1355.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!qb0Z!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ba55de4-e890-474a-a1bb-7c4c332aab64_828x1355.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:560px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Japan has officially declared China the biggest threat since they themselves started Pearl Harbor anyway \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!QuQE!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb7de3c90-dcf3-42da-a012-e550ad217276_828x1141.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!QuQE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb7de3c90-dcf3-42da-a012-e550ad217276_828x1141.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:332px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The Russian drone weapon, both close to the front and strategically, is stunningly much better, larger, and more effective than the West could handle, unfortunately Europe is not ready.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not in terms of soldiers, tanks, and fighter jets but in sabotage, murder, subversive activities, drone warfare, and robots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are hopelessly behind in that aspect and China has built up Russia&#8217;s capabilities which also have firsthand information about the 2025 war since they have already made all the mistakes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine probably has a defense force that exceeds Europe&#8217;s combined standing at least in terms of ground troops and armored vehicles, and Ukraine has a resilience and fighting spirit that far exceeds Europe&#8217;s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Russia were to turn the warfare they unleashed on Ukraine against Europe, what would happen then?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Magyar recently had a longer interview where he basically describes how a few drone groups could knock out most of our fighter jets at the bases on a dark night, did you read that on johanno1.se?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Does it sound completely unreasonable you think but how did it go for the Russian strategic bomber fleet?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Is Europe&#8217;s airspace much better protected all over Europe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since Europe has done nothing for over +3 years and has not learned anything about war in 2025, Russia with China&#8217;s help and their own experiences has gained a strategic advantage that should have been impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The same strategic advantage that Ukraine has over Russia they now have over us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have no defense for our civilian sensitive infrastructure and no defense for our high-tech weapons against the Russian drone weapon today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forget about the nuclear weapons which are our red line &#8211; they will never come \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A first strike in Europe against our most important airfields, headquarters, mob depots, power production, and other high-value targets with the drone weapon would yield better results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, Europe is not ready just as Europe keeps saying all the time but it is not in conventional warfare soldier against soldier but because Russia has been allowed to advance in the drone weapon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Do you think Russia sees this &#8211; yes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s why they are releasing all the information about Geran right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why do you think they want to scare us?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, because they have something mischievous in the pipeline pretty soon, one can guess \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n<p>Why do you think the top brass in the USA promised to roll over Kaliningrad in Europe in the event of war and placed nuclear weapons in the UK?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have never bothered to reason about this because I never thought Europe would behave as infantile as we have and mess up the situation in Ukraine, which was in our favor for three years but today the situation is as follows &#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine is retreating on all fronts and is engaged in a serious boxing match with strategic drone warfare where Ukraine is also significantly harmed, of course, even if we don&#8217;t discuss it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia has built redundancy during high-intensity offensive and could today carry out a limited attack on the Baltics that they would try to execute precisely under military intervention from Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But they would threaten like madmen with nuclear weapons, of course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And could have prepared a first strike with drones and robots across all of Europe, and sabotage on a very large scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You can believe what you want, but Chinese solar panels have a kill switch, it has already been discovered, and I think the latest blackout was a beta test.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Russia blows up mob depots, war industry, air bases, LV, and other high-value targets, and kills the elected officials who stand firm against Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And then kills pilots and high-ranking military officials in Europe while power outages spread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Are we ready for that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are not there yet, but we are at the point where China has given Russia a critical capability that works well, which we do not have and cannot yet combat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The window is probably about a year before we also have anti-drone drones, but right now it looks like this, and this fall we have Zapad 25, and the amount of sabotage in Europe has absolutely skyrocketed, and subversive activities are rampant and war-preparing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!WI56!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F10550bee-e05e-464c-9e0d-a33cc5fe168b_828x1005.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!WI56!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F10550bee-e05e-464c-9e0d-a33cc5fe168b_828x1005.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:258px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, Europe is absolutely not ready, and it is almost world-leading not to succeed in becoming so in three years \u2013 we have had to make an effort to navigate through this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Spain, Hungary, Serbia, and Slovakia are already lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Baltics are not far from a worst-case scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moldova and Romania could very well fall politically, and the rest of the Balkans are probably not very difficult to topple politically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>France has internal problems that are quite significant \u2013 in Marseille, the city was paralyzed for a week when two different nationalities in gangs\/clans went into full-scale war with each other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Germany is NOT ready, the Netherlands has a pro-Russian government, and so on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This could very well end just like the last time, with country after country in Europe making peace with Russia and leaving the Baltics and Ukraine to their fate, and a few more countries becoming pro-Russian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is probably the worst-case scenario today, but the West continues to sleep despite everything being right in front of us, and the time is 11:58, because that&#8217;s what it is now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Baltics expect at least a limited attack in the country \u2013 Estonia has just remilitarized the peace bridge, and the other two are preparing in haste at the eleventh hour, which was more than irresponsibly late.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now make the connection that Trump may want a black swan event in Europe so that money flows back to safety in the USA, so we could have a possible motive for the USA \u2013 they want to regain the advantage they had over us during the Cold War.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So if Russia rolls out the above, Trump will ensure that maximum economic damage is done, and then we&#8217;ll be there&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, okay, the worst-case scenario was a bit worse \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Anyway, we&#8217;ll see during the fall. Right now, Russia has just started another one like in 2015, so we will have to deal with that too. Greece has just introduced an asylum stop, so keep an eye on who starts causing trouble with Greece.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201dHate crimes\u201d are also spreading across Europe, where either some migrant paid by GRU commits a spectacular act of violence, preferably against a female pensioner or child, or a right-wing group runs around with swastikas and hunts immigrants \u2013 also on orders from GRU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Spain, Germany, France, and the UK are currently inundated with this \u2013 everything is documented and spread on social media for maximum reinforcement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!pYuG!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15f5a99b-22d1-4e32-8f03-72daf402115b_828x1128.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!pYuG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15f5a99b-22d1-4e32-8f03-72daf402115b_828x1128.jpeg\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:297px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>I have previously written that it would be a messy summer and, as always, completely right about everything \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-2015 rerun is underway<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-left, right, Islamists, gangs, and clans are active.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-sabotage is underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Russia feels that Europe does not dare to challenge their drone weapons, we will move to the next step in escalation before or during Zapad 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think it&#8217;s time for Europe to show its teeth, but so far, we haven&#8217;t done that directly, not very hopeful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you liked the post, please share it in your channels, and most importantly, share the English version with people you think might appreciate posts and comments they haven&#8217;t been able to read before. <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/\">https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Continued appreciation for the site is always gratefully received, and there is a QR code for that purpose, as well as a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Substack \u2013 there is still a chance to become subscribers, which is valuable to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:ohanno1.se\">johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:substack.com\/@johanno1\">substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\">https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Had to be a post about the war in the middle of the training package on the Russian subversive activities [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[30],"class_list":["post-2223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine","tag-ukraine-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ukraine daily update July 24, 2025 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-july-24-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine daily update July 24, 2025 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" 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