{"id":2282,"date":"2025-07-31T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-31T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-july-31-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-08-01T00:06:29","modified_gmt":"2025-07-31T22:06:29","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-july-31-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-july-31-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update July 31, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

If you cross the frontlines, unfortunately a lot happens in silence, or not in silence but when Ukraine counterattacks, we make waves, but when they give up 4km deep in dominant terrain, we prefer to keep quiet about it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is an overview of the frontlines, for better or for worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We discussed Kamyanske a while ago and pointed out that UA had withdrawn from dominant terrain in an area where, on paper, they were not much weaker than RU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU is advancing further in Kamyanske \u2013 check the little finger marked in red \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If RU reaches Stepnohirsk, they can start flanking the southern front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Things are lively in Vovchansk as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/4020096-enemy-attempts-to-outflank-vovchansk-ukrainian-defenders-push-back-offensive.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The situation in Pokrovsk is not good, and here is the link to the information about Russian reconnaissance units inside Pokrovsk, the source should be reliable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Then we have Russian advancement into Kupiansk, so the first bulge is likely punctured soon if not very long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If you look at Russian losses, they have plummeted in recent months, soldiers at least, but go through all the bars yourself. This is happening while Ukraine is releasing more and more dominant terrain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As you know from reading these daily updates, Ukraine has built a defensive line in an unnatural arc outside Donetsk Oblast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A bit quietly, we have started losing a lot of terrain near Bilohorivka, almost all the way to Siversk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Then we have the Kreminna forests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Up in northern Luhansk, another attacking unit is soon reaching Oskil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And down by the Dnieper, they have taken the entire delta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It has never looked like this in a whole war, and especially it’s the peak season for offensive operations since mid-April and it might end in early October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Either Ukraine is retreating because they intend to move back to their new defense line outside the area Putin wants to take, or they are preparing for a major blow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don’t understand why they are giving up dominant terrain if they are preparing for a major blow \u2013 for example, Kamyanske.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now the whole world is occupied with Palestine, Starlink is hosting, 30,000 North Koreans have arrived, Ukraine warns of a Russian offensive, and there are retreats at all fronts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If I were a leader in Europe, I would start looking at the alternatives already, but what are they?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Russia has a strategic offensive reserve, can we sacrifice troops in Ukraine?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we send our LV to Ukraine \u2013 what do we have left against thousands of Geran drones and 2,000 robots that Russia has in reserve?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do we dare a bit with Hungary and Serbia, hoping the fortress doesn’t get any ideas \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I lean towards the idea that Ukraine is heading towards its rear defense line in a delaying action and intends to fortify it. They fight like lions for every meter but avoid unnecessary losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not what Sirsky is known for \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This line is not far west of Pokrovsk, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, if RU has access to drones, Geran drones, and FABs, you are just moving the problem elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The line is also not mined because we in the West negotiated away our mines, and that’s what saved the Surovikin line \u2013 a mile deep densely packed minefield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Putin stop when Ukraine retreats to their new defense line, which just happens to be outside the areas he intends to conquer?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My guess is he will only stop if he has to, because why would RU","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If you cross the frontlines, unfortunately a lot happens in silence, or not in silence but when Ukraine counterattacks, we 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