{"id":2290,"date":"2025-08-01T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-august-1-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-08-02T06:48:09","modified_gmt":"2025-08-02T04:48:09","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-august-1-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-august-1-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update August 1, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Below I look at Russian war preparations and speculate a bit, but I also want to explain why what we may be facing in Ukraine is catastrophic for us in Europe, but not necessarily for Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A few links &#8211; in 2025, Russia surprisingly trained many reservists and had a larger conscription than usual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"CQwSAvhXnA\"><a href=\"https:\/\/militarnyi.com\/en\/news\/russia-will-draft-reservists-for-military-training-this-year\/\">Russia Will Draft Reservists For Military Training This Year<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Russia Will Draft Reservists For Military Training This Year&#8221; &#8212; \u041c\u0456\u043b\u0456\u0442\u0430\u0440\u043d\u0438\u0439\" src=\"https:\/\/militarnyi.com\/en\/news\/russia-will-draft-reservists-for-military-training-this-year\/embed\/#?secret=aTKPV6QjbR#?secret=CQwSAvhXnA\" data-secret=\"CQwSAvhXnA\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/could-russias-military-exercises-mean-a-new-mobilization\/a-71460443\">https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/could-russias-military-exercises-mean-a-new-mobilization\/a-71460443<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>99.9% make the mistake of immediately defending Ukraine as soon as I describe the reality, when the threat is not actually directed towards Ukraine &#8211; it&#8217;s just the fact that they are conducting an excellent delaying action and exchanging every meter for Russian flat-footed barbarians, all credit to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The threat is also not directed towards China and the USA, as both have other plans, which they are entitled to, the air is open. There is no law that they must be on our side, especially when WE ARE AT WAR?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s a bit strange if Europe is supposed to be able to say, &#8220;we feel threatened, come and save us, Trump, and you China, the other threat besides Russia, stop it, because we actually want peace and quiet without having to spend money on defense.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When did that ever work in real life, if ever?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I am addressing Europe, and I do it for the simple reason that it is Europe that will soon bear all the consequences if we do not put on our big-boy-pants. We have just been snubbed by China, and Trump saw the opportunity to give us a lousy trade deal, that swindler \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since we all know a bit of history, we know that when the consequences come, it will be you and me who are the ultimate recipients &#8211; and that is compelling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because laws of war are compelling, not like during COVID in Sweden where people were advised, but now you receive a call-up order and someone owns your life &#8211; they can be responsible and do an excellent job, or they can gamble with your life without caring, and it&#8217;s a bit of a lottery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have an excellent leader and are well-equipped, you win the lottery, but you could just as easily have a municipal middle manager and a Mauser if you&#8217;re unlucky. And then you find yourself in the way of the Russian mechanized infantry after a few salvos of warming TOS-1 when your middle manager&#8217;s boss yells from his bunker three miles further back, &#8220;to the last bullet or face a court-martial, cowards.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Never forget that your boss will choose which platoon is the rear guard or leads the attack, and a municipal middle manager will always favor his buddies, never expose himself to danger, and if he feels threatened because you are too good a soldier, you will go first because he can&#8217;t fire you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have some positive glimpses I hope for, but the uncomfortable truth is that they all involve Ukraine, and even in 2025, Europe and the USA are intervening a lot in this, as Sirsky has told us &#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-Ukraine regains Crimea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-Ukraine sends about ten brigades to the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-Ukraine activates Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-Ukraine destabilizes Russia, causing internal strife.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now in 2025, we have returned to a world order where the biggest guns prevail, and the EU is hopelessly behind because we are still engaged in some other world order that no one cares about, as China and the USA have just shown us how much they respect it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I don&#8217;t know if what Sweden launched, &#8220;the humanitarian superpower,&#8221; is a line we actively pursue anymore, but it also doesn&#8217;t work against countries like Russia and China, I can tell you. That approach doesn&#8217;t even work on our own gang criminals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you can&#8217;t back up warnings or threats with significant force, opponents fall asleep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Or it&#8217;s not like that at all, the countries ahead of you in line are destroyed and ethnically cleansed without you being able to do a damn thing, and it&#8217;s getting closer to you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So the desire for eternal peace and not to escalate for the greater good is really just cowardice that ends the lives of children, the elderly, and women in the worst possible way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If, in the name of the environment, you have shut down electricity production and closed mines so that you can&#8217;t build weapons now, and before that, scrapped all weapons in the name of peace, then you are not without guilt when neighbors&#8217; children are tortured and murdered &#8211; you are not a good and decent person, you are an idiot who went against better knowledge that previous generations learned the hard way, and now someone else suffers for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moreover, if you have made promises that if they choose us and our community, we will help them if needed, and then don&#8217;t follow through &#8211; then you are definitely not a friend to rely on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Zalizhny has recently said a lot, and two things we take with us &#8211; &#8220;do not agree to a negotiated peace&#8221; and &#8220;the single most important thing you have is marksmanship.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It feels good when Ukraine&#8217;s former Chief of Defense agrees with me (of course, he got the talking points from me) \ud83d\ude0e<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia and Trump have REALLY tried to erode trust in the leaders of Ukraine, and when that didn&#8217;t work, they are now trying to assassinate the best leaders &#8211; several assassination plots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The problem they have is that the Ukrainian spirit does not depend on Zelensky to function, but everything has its limits, time is a crucial factor, and Ukraine is not a homogeneous country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think Ukraine is cool &#8211; they have chosen a side, which is the EU, they are clear in their resistance to China, and they are pulling the heaviest load all the time without complaining &#8211; they are real men, women, LGBTQ+1, and all other gender identities we respect \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The problem is that Trump and Putin have agreed that Putin should take the land he deems necessary to survive politically by force &#8211; then there will be a ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Politically, this makes Trump look good, and Putin gets his break, and he managed to escape the gasoline bath and noose already hanging in a gas station in northern Moscow by an older traitor who hangs out on another blog because he is a turncoat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In January, when we started lamenting Europe&#8217;s disastrous cowardice, the counter-comment was always, &#8220;Europe is planning something big with Ukraine, wait and see.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, we&#8217;ve waited and seen &#8211; how much longer do I have to wait \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Ukraine is planning an offensive, it must come before Putin and Trump declare a ceasefire and peace in our time, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because how can Ukraine politically &#8220;restart&#8221; the war when everyone else has caught the scent of eternal peace?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Starmer, Macron, and Merz will be as happy as children on Christmas morning, there&#8217;s no way in hell they will thunder about war and more death after that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Right now, I think Russia is doing well enough in Ukraine that they don&#8217;t need the Baltics, but I am grossly mistaken because Russia intends to reclaim Soviet borders, and Ukraine is just a stepping stone.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Because they are clowns and complete imbeciles, this sub-goal took over three years instead of the week they had planned for &#8211; all units had their dress uniforms with them and by the end of February 2022, all tables in Kiev were booked by Russian officers.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In 2026, the Baltic border is likely no longer passable, so they have this year and a bit into 2026.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Ukraine has played fair with Europe throughout an entire war, while the amount of betrayals from the West is very high, very high &#8211; I can probably come up with about fifteen off the top of my head.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If Russia gets its ceasefire, they can release units from Ukraine, their offensive units, and leave poorer units in defense.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If Europe is threatened &#8211; will Ukraine as a country be able to restart hostilities just to help us?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Trump and Putin will try to bring down the sensible politicians in Ukraine as soon as the ceasefire is in place to prevent this. Just the fact that there is a ceasefire will be spun by the GRU and FSB as betrayal by Zelensky, and he is just one big demonstration away from falling politically.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Probably Ukraine will see an opportunity to do so to reclaim its land and bring down Russia, but we have no guarantees, we just hope that they won&#8217;t do as we have done for three years and behave like adults instead \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Do you understand now why this is an impending catastrophe for us in Europe?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If at most two months, Ukraine as a buffer zone between us and Russia will be gone, and then we have to hope that Ukraine, after three years of war, is ready to start dying again to save us so we don&#8217;t have to dirty our hands or die even though we have exploited their sacrifices for three long years.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The other thing that the GRU and FSB are planning is that the moment the ceasefire is declared, they will offer all unemployed and poor soldiers a new career in Europe at 50 times the salary, and a new underworld will emerge very quickly that Europe cannot handle at all.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>All of this fits perfectly into Zapad25, and if RU currently has a strategic offensive reserve of 150,000 and an offensive reserve on the northern front of +50,000 that they can soon release when the NK 11th AC arrives, then they probably have another 300,000 &#8211; 400,000 that they can release from Ukraine as soon as the ceasefire is declared?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>There is probably a plan to bring in units from Laos, India, Africa, China, and North Korea to handle guard duty at the frontlines, with RU special forces units behind them motivating those who try to choose life.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Russia also has 350,000 &#8211; +400,000 in various letter agency units that are well-equipped and well-trained by Russian standards.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>They are reserved for internal power struggles and domestic repression, but they are there and ready.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The idea that &#8220;Spetznaz no longer exists&#8221; is nonsense because the Special Operations Forces (yes, that&#8217;s what they&#8217;re called \ud83e\udd23) exist, as do all the letter agencies mentioned above.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Russia still has a good capability for asymmetric warfare, and in Kaliningrad, this capability exists, and then there is the Belarusian Spetznaz, even though we have laughed at them.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>There are at least 1,500 NK special forces units in Ukraine, probably more, and then Chinese Special Forces.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Today in 2025, Russia has the capability they would need to roll over the Baltics in a surprise attack &#8211; they wouldn&#8217;t be able to handle 30 European brigades in defense.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The claim that Russia has no units is utter nonsense, and those pushing that narrative should perhaps be looked at a little more closely \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Continuing to monitor RU movements near the Baltics and the air bases towards the Baltics have seen increased activity &#8211; Olenya, Kamyanke, and Lenoshovo.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/english.nv.ua\/nation\/nato-bolsters-defenses-as-russia-eyes-eastern-flank-50526314.html\">https:\/\/english.nv.ua\/nation\/nato-bolsters-defenses-as-russia-eyes-eastern-flank-50526314.html<\/a><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In terms of completing the troop types, the Baltic Fleet, which has not been tested in combat, is probably the one that will take the longest. Russia has now conducted its third major naval exercise within a year, and during Zapad 25, it&#8217;s probably time again, I guess, or does anyone still believe in the promises that it will be under 13,000 and in eastern Belarus?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>After that, in order, comes the air force, the missile troops, and the nuclear troops, where the air force is probably the easiest to spot when it is deployed on the tarmac.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>So, the above link now warns of increased activity at the air bases that could be used against the Baltics.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The missile and nuclear troops are supposed to be in their starting positions and will probably come later, I guess &#8211; the missile troops already have work experience, and the nuclear troops have been trained throughout the war. Before you start arguing with me &#8211; the nuclear troops will never be used.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Finally, the ground forces will move to their starting point for the attack, or UFA as we said when we attacked the whole world in basic training and won every time.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Since the command structure is now in place with the new military districts and units have combat experience, they can probably advance them a week before the offensive starts, where brigades are assigned to new staffs and move from UFA towards the attack targets quite quickly. After all, they have been doing this for three years now and must have learned something, I think?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>When the ground forces start moving within striking distance of the Baltics, that&#8217;s when it gets serious, and we have a best estimated week to act.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The Baltic Fleet will already be there blocking the ports, and if we try to move anything through the Suwalki Corridor, it will be mined and drones, but as hidden as possible &#8211; a few explosions and everything will stop, and it will be chaotic. Diplomatic and political clenched fists and accusations of Russian involvement will be met with silence and disinformation, and then a few days later, they will cross the border anyway, and everything will be a done deal.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>When the ground forces move to their UFA, everything else will already be in place: the air force, the robots, the drone units, the Baltic Fleet, and with the ground troops will come the artillery.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Palkino, Ostrov, and Velikje Luki have seen renovation and upgrading of storage spaces, so it&#8217;s not at all unlikely that they have ammunition and vehicles there over time?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>You can google where Palkino is located \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>What I want to get at is that it is in RU&#8217;s interest to possibly carry out a surprise attack, which no one believes they are capable of.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It is also a terrible road network in eastern Baltics and on the Russian side, so an attack can only come when the ground is solid, so mid-September during Zapad is the last chance before Raspusitza.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The railway network to Pskov has also been upgraded to quickly bring in units to the area.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As I said, Zapad 25 legitimizes troop movements, and we must try to interpret what is real and what is a decoy.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The fact that the Baltics have asked Europe and NATO for permission to conduct pre-emptive strikes in Russia went unnoticed, but now I can&#8217;t find the link.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>I think we can guess what the cowards&#8217; response was \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>From what I can gather, the border is not very fortified with fortifications since they recently left the Ottawa Convention and are only now allowed to mine and still argue about the thickness of bunker walls. Since each Baltic state has about 6,000 strong defense forces, there is also no personnel on site.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>One relies on mobilization and Russia will carry out sabotage and influence operations to delay it as much as possible.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Then a maritime threat and a threat in, for example, northern Estonia will be projected to tie up forces when the main attack comes in SE Estonia.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>For example, the Estonian Defense Forces will be forced to protect high-value targets and be present in the northeastern and northwestern parts of the country.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>An idea that has gained strength is that RU will start with a limited attack to evaluate Europe&#8217;s reaction, but the forces for the next phase are already on their way in.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>This way, a greater element of surprise can be achieved initially without losing momentum.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If there is not much of a response from Europe and NATO, they will continue to escalate, and if we show our claws, they will back off immediately, blame a few generals, and attribute everything to drunken freebooters, just like with U137 where drunkenness was blamed for everything.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>You can forget about the Baltic defense moving eastward, as RU can also deploy a wet drone carpet 50km within the frontlines as they advance.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Then there are reconnaissance drones observing where the defense sets up camp, and that&#8217;s when the FAB comes into play.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>You all talk about air defense, but it doesn&#8217;t come within 100km of the frontlines nowadays in Ukraine, and even our cutting-edge aircraft can be shot down. You can be sure that China has something hidden among the forces and will try to target the F35, which would be a major propaganda victory.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>In this attack, the goal is probably to keep as much of the defense at a distance initially so that they are forced onto the roads and have to bind themselves towards the combat area.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It&#8217;s not very difficult to understand why Putin wants the Baltics &#8211; it is strategically important to him, and the Baltic Sea will be essentially locked when Russian missiles, sea robots, aircraft, and naval forces suddenly line the entire Baltic coast, not just confined to Kaliningrad or the bottleneck from St. Petersburg that the Finns had exposed them to.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The range of weapons is infinitely better today than during the Cold War.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"width\":\"468px\",\"height\":\"auto\",\"linkDestination\":\"custom\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!aaZV!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b32aa09-b94c-4e35-9edf-cf23c362fa64_897x786.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!aaZV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7b32aa09-b94c-4e35-9edf-cf23c362fa64_897x786.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:468px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<!-- \/wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If there is a tough encounter in the fall of 2025, there might be another chance in the winter of 2026, but they surely remember February 2022 vividly and it is highly weather-dependent.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>By the spring of 2026, fortifications and minefields should have started to be put in place, from what I have managed to gather, and the Russians also know how difficult it is to breach deep minefields and bunker systems.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Regardless of whether a Russian attack on the Baltics occurs or not, Europe must prepare for it, and the only way to do so is to deploy a large number of forces in the Baltics.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Now, that is not going to happen, and even if there are brave attempts to dress up the pig, it only projects weakness and indecisiveness towards Russia and China, which increases the risk of an attack on the Baltics.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If you remember the Russian Easter when we hastily stationed troops permanently on Gotland, the &#8220;threshold effect&#8221; was important, right?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The same applies to the Baltics, and Trump has already declared that Article 5 is subjective, that 30% of forces in Europe should be reduced, and that Putin is his bestie.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Then, when Russia has reoccupied the Baltics, Phase 3 will commence, and it is Poland that is now surrounded by enemies except for Germany, as the Czech Republic got a pro-Russian government (speculative until the election).<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:image {\"width\":\"452px\",\"height\":\"auto\",\"linkDestination\":\"custom\"} -->\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><a class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!UgeW!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b6ff03c-1282-43fa-b717-65ebea8298f4_816x766.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!UgeW!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b6ff03c-1282-43fa-b717-65ebea8298f4_816x766.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:452px;height:auto\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<!-- \/wp:image -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>It&#8217;s not very difficult to see the overall plan here, and the Balkans will likely collapse like a house of cards without too many bribes and murders.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Greece will have a tough time along with Italy, and it will be interesting to see which way Spain goes because they have a significant influence on Portugal. Historically, Spain has rarely been on the right side.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Do you think East Germany will declare itself an independent country soon, and we&#8217;ll be back to square one \ud83d\ude02\ud83d\ude02<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Anyway, we are just one attack away from this unfolding in the Baltics, so let&#8217;s hope Europe projects a high enough threshold effect to appear deterrent to Russia \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>By the way, has anyone seen this threshold effect the month before Zapad 25 kicks off, or could it come at short notice? Asking for a friend who is starting to get a little nervous?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Or do we trust that Putin will keep his promises and in case of anything, we blame him for lying?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>On Substack &#8211; there is still a chance to become subscribers and it would be valuable to me if you want to become paying ones. 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