Since the turn of the year, I have conveyed that Ukraine has offensive capacity and now that they have started targeting refineries again, maybe something has changed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I thought they would carry out an offensive in the fall of 2024, for which they had a plan, and the drone advantage to do so, but Trump sabotaged everything and gave Kursk back to Putin instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putin couldn’t retake the area, so he had to ask Trump for help to negotiate the issue for him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I have now decided that Ukraine has sufficient offensive capacity – they can simply carry out offensive operations. I have gone through this and there is no other conclusion to be drawn. For example, the 300 SB90 type vessels they have in various sizes or the enormous amount of mine-clearing vehicles and helicopters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The number of heavy vehicles lost has dropped significantly, but one must assume that the refurbishment, service, and the program where old tanks get new turrets continue at an unabated pace, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you look at decommissioned vehicles, there are not many, and now all tanks that have been in service should reasonably be ready, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The mobilization is said to be functioning according to all UA sources, and according to RU, 200,000 have deserted, but one must assume that UA is not completely collapsing here and that they still have competent units left.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But right now, they are just like during the +3 years of war, hindered by the West and political maneuvering. They are returning to the defense line they built outside the oblasts Putin intends to conquer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sirsky has thus in PLAIN TEXT explained to us that both Europe and the USA are still preventing them from targeting objectives in Russia – this is ABSOLUTELY sensational, not that Trump does it but that Europe does it \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With friends like these, you hardly need any enemies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine is ceding ground to keep losses down, perhaps they learned from Kursk where Trump never acknowledged it as a bargaining chip and gave it back to Putin?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They are incurring minimal losses right now in a delaying action where they are trying to cause maximum losses to RU – the retreat is not a positive signal at all, but the delaying action is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They know they will have to give up Donetsk and Luhansk anyway, so they are pulling back beyond the oblast border – there are those who do not believe that Kursk was politically motivated even when Ukraine retreated two days before the US envoy landed in Moscow, Trump never acknowledged Kursk, and Putin said he refused to start negotiations until Ukraine was out of Kursk. I don’t know what more evidence deniers need.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It’s exactly the same here – the defense line is outside the oblasts Putin claims to want to conquer, Trump says he will let Putin take them, Ukraine is building the line outside because they are pragmatic and for a delaying action that obviously aims to incur the lowest possible losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump is the only one who can do right here, or continue to do wrong – if he changes his mind, everything changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Europe seems to have completely thrown in the towel – firstly by threatening Zelensky over that damn anti-corruption law, and then also by preventing him from targeting objectives in Russia, which is cowardly, irresponsible, and unethical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And then the problem will come to us the day Ukraine is no longer the buffer between us and Russia, for example, if Ukraine agrees to a ceasefire…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Like an older traitor hanging out on another blog \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In recent days, two refineries and an oil depot have been targeted, the first time in five months – a possible shift in what Ukraine is targeting, but it’s early, maybe Zelensky also received a call from an upset Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So there is a chance that Trump has “switched sides” and that Ukraine will start fighting again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Those two submarines in response to Medvedev are not because Trump got a feeling – it’s because the risk of Putin using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine has increased. The same goes for the nuclear weapons they moved to the UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then “we run over Kaliningrad” is a response to an increased threat against the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The risk of nuclear weapons being used and Russia attacking the Baltics is so high that the USA has started delivering counter-threats and moving pieces on the board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And in that context, one must ask why Europe is not preemptively sending in its brigades to the Baltics?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I can guarantee you that Ukraine’s advance will not stop before the country’s eastern border if they are given permission, but this is end-game for Ukraine – this war will not last for many more years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When Trump was at his worst, the mood in Ukraine was rock bottom, as those who were there say, and that is something GRU\/FSB\/SVR are very good at capitalizing on, but this time it didn’t work despite MVP to Trump for a brave attempt – he tried to politically bring down Zelensky and then fuel the narrative that the administration was deeply corrupt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The aftermath with the anti-corruption authority was surely a step in that whole plan, and the EU, those idiots, are playing along \ud83d\ude2d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It may take longer to reach the objectives now than at the turn of the year, but if we get started, it will be decided in 2025 as promised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, I don’t think Ukraine dares to go against Trump, and Europe is cowardly and weak as we have always been – so we might also end up with a ceasefire, which would be absolutely devastating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
More on the pro-Ukrainian side are now expressing that it is not good but perhaps inevitable, so it is definitely up for discussion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It could also be that Ukraine is waiting for an attack on the Baltics, which would actually be a smart move on their part to try to draw in Europe, I would applaud that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To summarize –<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The path Trump and Europe take cannot be determined, but it will determine the war and future global escalation or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is crystal clear that Ukraine has offensive capacity (as I have said since the turn of the year, so it is true).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I also consider it established that RU intends to escalate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Europe is too cowardly and weak, so then it remains for Trump to change his mind – we are putting our hope in Trump, which I am not particularly pleased to admit, even though his victory perfume is for winners \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A little digression, but I believe that Russia and China see WW2 as a roadmap for how Europe will act and that they are trying to recreate it – we all learn from history, just in different ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ask Poland what they think about how World War II went for them, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia intends to restore the Soviet borders, so Ukraine is just a stepping stone, and the door to take the Baltics will probably close in 2026, I guess. Russia obviously knows this too because they have experienced how well deep minefields work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia has also found something that works now against a retreating Ukraine, and Ukraine is by far Europe’s strongest defense force with excellent soldiers who can handle the 2025 war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unwanted children are sent forward, UA positions are logged, FAB is put in place, an FPV blanket is laid over the front section, and they advance with competent shooting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We have also recently seen a couple of mechanical failures in company size or larger – they are also there as tools in the toolbox.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Everything is always changing, and a very big reason Ukraine is backing down is Trump, Europe, and politics. If Ukraine had not had a single restraint and Europe had fully supported them, Putin would have been dangling like a burning pi\u00f1ata long ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In January, Ukraine still had drone superiority at the fronts, and during the fall, they absolutely had drone superiority at a front where they pooled capacity – but they were denied to exploit this advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Instead, Trump gave Kursk back to Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Europe constantly gives more time and no consequences to a group of countries that have already decided to run over us in the hope that they will change, but we are the enablers instead, as a third country suffers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Before it comes to us, those ahead of us in line are subjected to the same treatment as Ukraine, we turned a blind eye to Belarus, we accuse Israel of October 7, and we have not scrutinized China for India-Pakistan. We have also not lifted a finger for the dozens of countries thrown into chaos in Africa thanks to Wagner’s African corps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Cold War was almost better because at least the USA was directly there supporting the other side that had the Soviet Union against them, and vice versa, in a way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Europe has threatened and then backed down from the threats in an entire war because we have not read the Peter and the Wolf tale – the likelihood that we will not rescue the Baltics is there, and that is what Putin will play on. He will try to enter just before there is a reaction from Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Baltics have no defense forces to speak of, the eastern border is not fortified, they have no combat experience, and reinforcements will not be able to arrive in the zone where Russia will deny movement, which currently seems to be 50km.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine and took a huge amount of land, but then the Ukrainian spirit kicked in, are the Balts from the same mold or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This one was not stupid, how a hunter acted the first week of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n