{"id":2334,"date":"2025-08-06T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-06T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-august-6-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-08-07T06:09:37","modified_gmt":"2025-08-07T04:09:37","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-august-6-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-august-6-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update August 6, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Now 165 people have voted on johanno1.se and are remarkably unanimous that nothing will happen during Zapad 25 and this page may well be considered to have quite high expertise in the subject of the Ukraine war?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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One might then ask why Poland is burning fuel in a large military exercise and Germany is deploying frontline fighter jets?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/kyivindependent.com\/germany-deploys-eurofighter-jets-to-poland-over-russian-belarusian-military-drills<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201ddeterrent\u201d \u2013 against what, nothing will happen according to the above vote?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I thought it was important not to provoke Russia or risk escalation, but apparently Poland and Germany no longer think so – are they warmongers?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem is that if Russia gets a feeling, what has been put forward as a deterrent is likely at best a speed bump right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deterrent – dissuasive, and the word dissuasive suggests that one feels that this will really hurt and refrains from the planned crimes against humanity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If there are not about thirty brigades in the Baltics within a month, nothing is dissuasive at all – instead, it is an invitation to genocide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then I seriously wonder why the aircraft are being deployed to Poland and not to the Baltics – it would be a deterrent and no one will attack Poland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I know that NATO has a seasick theory about “tripwire” – composite brigade or battalion from different countries that are supposed to be “in the way” so that Russia does not dare to attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are a couple of different units in the Baltics and then they drag their feet more than necessary with the European brigade for Lithuania but the command structure is probably in place now at least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where do you think the tripwire is located in Estonia – well, up in the NW where Russia won’t attack \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And in Latvia, it is all the way over by the coast so the vast area to the east is probably largely undefended except for a bunch of environmental activists running around ensuring that no fortifications are built in the nature reserves bordering the Russian border.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reuters describes the purpose as follows –<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSince 2017, NATO has rotated three battlegroups through the region with a total of about 3,000 troops, provided by Germany, Britain and Canada. The deployment of 1,000 soldiers in each Baltic state was designed as a deterrent to slow any attack\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It will be quite interesting to see if they dare to regroup to eastern Baltics during Zapad 25, more specifically SE Estonia and NE Latvia. To go on the defensive a few kilometers towards the border, mine for close defense, and wait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During Russian Easter, at least Sweden thought that our deterrent or “threshold effect” was needed ON Gotland and not FROM the mainland where one would then have sat and watched Gotland through a cheap pair of binoculars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A deterrent only works if it is reasonably in the way, and the word “tripwire” is difficult to interpret in any other way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we now wildly speculate again – if these tripwires are located in their base areas very far from expected entry points for Russian units intending to take their miles of Estonian potato fields and then go on the defensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Has the tripwire then achieved its purpose?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have a job description for these international units that is in no way reflected in the areas they choose to camp in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like that Dutch battalion in Srebrenica that interpreted their peacekeeping task as running away from threats, not protecting civilians from threats – they preserved their own peace at a very high price for others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or a bit like our Swedish units instead of fortifying Gotland with weapons and violence would have chosen to act as a deterrent from Kalmar through a very long tripwire that the Russians would completely have missed if it existed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That being said – air and LV are early capabilities to regroup, so it is likely that this is a multi-stage rocket and that we have now seen the first step.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If one intends to act as a deterrent, it is also best done behind extensive field works and mining – such things take time and have not been started.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now it may have to be approved by the respective countries’ environmental agencies first before digging can begin in the nature reserves, but the process should have been started.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If NATO is now a defense alliance, doesn’t it require showing intent to defend something for the concept itself to be credible?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I may be old, cynical, and bitter (but not as old as the aged traitor chirping on that other blog) – so far, I believe that there is a high risk that the tripwires in the Baltics urgently reinterpret their job description like the Dutch did in Srebrenica in case of a conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2025 Baltic refugees will then be the tripwires in the floating devices they managed to get hold of at short notice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a dispute between India and the USA now, which I am highly suspicious of because India is one of our few allies in the region and China despises them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump has a nearly unique ability to start quarrels with allies and completely leave our enemies alone, look at who got trade deals early \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Canada’s Carney has discovered how reality works and Kier Starmer’s Labour has really come out strong with thought crime and blasphemy laws in the UK, but there are also something called friends and enemies that even the USA needs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that Russia and China are magnitudes worse than what Starmer is up to because he doesn’t throw people off balconies, yet…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Having a leadership position comes with certain sacrifices, but yes, the likelihood that the Krasnov story is true is quite high at this point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India is not the class’s best child at all, and we haven’t even discussed the caste system that in no way considers everyone’s equal value but instead legislates on it, but they are in a rapidly decreasing number of countries that stand on our side in an upcoming global conflict and also a large country, so a friend we want to have.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But India did not lie down immediately – “why can’t we buy Russian oil when the EU bought goods from Russia for over 60 billion euros in 2024?”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Which is fully supported by this –<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

That was more money than we supported Ukraine with in 2024, the EU is completely hopeless \ud83d\ude2d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China also told Trump to go to hell and stood there grinning at him like only a Chinese can, you don’t know if it’s laughter, tears, joy, or anguish – completely impossible to read the facial expression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At least Anne Appelbaum has read my texts now, good \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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And here is a good text, they probably did copy-paste on johanno1.se to save time. (stolen from the comment section at johanno1.se)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/magazine\/2025\/08\/03\/europe-future-authoritarianism-00490010<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We see early signs that something has happened – two refineries and an oil depot in Sochi have been droned to atoms in recent days and then this \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/4021912-partisans-report-heightened-russian-security-in-sevastopol-bay.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a chance that Trump has called Putin and informed him that the leash he holds Ukraine on has started to crack at the seams and that the dog is completely out of control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, I am starting to feel more and more that Ukraine is its own worst enemy – by effectively stopping Russia, they have kept the problem far enough away from Europe that we could continue to sleep.<\/p>\n\n\n

Our beauty sleep is guaranteed by Ukrainian small children who are tortured, raped, and murdered, and we still sleep well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now one is not supposed to think like this, but sometimes I test-run my dictatorship brain cells, and it’s hard to escape the thought that an attack on the Baltics would be very beneficial for Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How can the EU half-sleep through this when they know what Russia is currently doing inside the EU, plus a million unemployed Ukrainian soldiers taking what they want in Europe after the war, and finally, if Russia, God forbid, were to succeed in reincorporating Ukraine into the dictatorship and stealing all their tech, one wonders how the analyses have really gone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the entire war, Ukraine has promised to take the full blow if only they were given the weapons to make the EU safe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have repeatedly warned us of the potential consequences countless times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most recently, Budanov, who is hard to misunderstand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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It’s hard to see anything other than Europe needing a good kick in the back of the head to wake up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We need to wake up before it’s too late because the last time we played war, we were overrun within months, all of Europe except for one country because they had a prime minister who wasn’t a coward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That time, admittedly, by Germans who are infinitely more troublesome than Russians when they get going, but the German army had no more personnel, aircraft, tanks, or artillery than the opponents overall, quite the opposite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poland had a lot of tanks, a lot of anti-tank weapons, aircraft, 5000 artillery pieces, a million soldiers, and they were in defense, positioned behind rivers and minefields. Poland was well aware of the German threat, and even though German subversive activities were massive, their war preparations worked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Tanks_of_the_Polish_Armoured_Forces<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was “boldly ventured, half won” by the Germans, wavering morale, lack of leadership, and living in yesterday’s wars that lost the war for us \u2013 and a very determined enemy against a highly indecisive alliance. Germany jumped on one country at a time, crushed them, regrouped, and then moved on to the next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not escalating, just defending, not plunging the world into war, and hoping for peace led us to the Second World War and six years of indescribable hardships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Imagine telling your family in Warsaw in 1939, “yes, the situation for us Jews is not great, but it will get better, I promise, let’s wait and see for a while.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A lot of this we see today, for example, Macron is completely preoccupied with quarreling with his wife now, and Kier Starmer is unpopular everywhere, especially within his own Labour party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No shortage of warnings, Johannes No.3 was a well-known blogger at the time that no one listened to, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not many really cared about Poland’s fate post-WW2, but in 1918, they became an independent country after a rather long stretch of very dull history, and they thoroughly whipped the Bolsheviks until 1921, so they deserved their freedom \u2013 winning many battles that absolutely no one knows about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1939, they were overrun, and no one helped them when Germany and the Soviet Union attacked from opposite directions \u2013 does that sound familiar?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During WW2, Poland was one of the countries Germany wreaked the most havoc in, and post-WW2, the US handed Poland over to the Soviet Union despite Churchill’s wild protests when he happened to be sober.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1993, they became free again, and today they are actually on the top 15 list of countries with the best GDP \u2013 a real powerhouse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Did you know that Poland’s war preparations assumed that the war would start in 1942 and never that the Soviet Union would stab them in the back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A bit like everyone now saying that Russia won’t be able to attack until 2027 at the earliest \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Colonel Tadeusz Kobyla\u0144ski, who analyzed that the Soviet Union was not a threat, has been suspected of working for the third power, by the way, but it’s speculative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How many analysts and military personnel around Europe do you think are working for Russia today?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Are they immune to the offer that their spouse will be able to give lectures in an empty meeting room once a month and invoice a million to a media company in the EU that pays within a week every time?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Especially when the counteroffer was to accidentally release the video of when you got a bit too drunk from your spiked drink on the last business trip, and the very friendly woman who happened to stumble into you and was immediately very interested in you and your job turned out to be only 14 years old when she held up her ID to the mirror after you fell asleep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or a man depending on the gender identity of the military. By the way, do you think GRU prepares for all different genders before figuring out the preferences or gender identity of their targets because it’s not always very clear, and the safest way to fail with a honeytrap is to misgender someone, I think, then the defenses come up immediately?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(did you know, by the way, that today’s young adults are not the least bit interested in one-night stands, bar pickups, casual relationships, and all that. They want long serious relationships, and the dating sites are bleeding – GRU nightmare)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has done something we very rarely see, and partly it’s because Russia is absolute amateurs, but time is not on Ukraine’s side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Baltics are probably dangerously close to experiencing a Poland here, actually, if we don’t sharpen up, and I’m not talking about a battalion hiding in the westernmost part of Estonia and starting to look for boats to get to Gotland with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US is starting to understand that they need Ukraine \u2013 they need their technology and their expertise because they are hopelessly behind, especially compared to China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe doesn’t seem to have understood this yet, and I am in absolute septic shock that by the year 2025, we still haven’t hired every available Ukrainian veteran to train us in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At least Magyar got to attend some meeting in Europe, but we didn’t like hearing, “I can completely paralyze you with my drone battalion in a week, all your very expensive weapons will burn.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For this to end well, we need Ukraine, period \u2013 some of us realized this as early as 2022 and have been writing it since then, so it’s strange that the penny hasn’t dropped by 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We at least had a small earthquake here, and then I watched that series about the drug trade on Netflix, and one of the routes goes to Puerto Rico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not very difficult to guess that my Italian employers, who are going to start exporting directly to the US from this export port I’m building, have planned to slightly adjust that route \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can you put on your CV that you’re building infrastructure for the cartels, or is it not as manly as I think?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Substack \u2013 there is still a chance to become subscribers and it would be valuable to me if you want to become paying ones. All content is posted freely to everyone, but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a meal at McDonald’s, so it’s also healthy \u2013 Johan No.1 makes you healthier too \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n

Continued appreciation for the page johanno1.se is always gratefully received and there is a QR code for this purpose that you absolutely must not miss as we have costs and there is a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 ukraine and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you liked the post – please share it in your channels and above all, please share the English version with people you think may appreciate posts and comments they have not been able to read before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Now 165 people have voted on johanno1.se and are remarkably unanimous that nothing will happen during Zapad 25 and this 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