{"id":2358,"date":"2025-08-07T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-07T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/daily-update-august-7-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-11-08T02:20:25","modified_gmt":"2025-11-08T01:20:25","slug":"daily-update-august-7-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/daily-update-august-7-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Daily update August 7, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A Latvian general warns that up to 150,000 Russian and Belarusian soldiers will participate in Zapad 25<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nv.ua\/ukr\/world\/geopolitics\/u-navchannyah-zahid-vizmut-uchast-vid-100-do-150-tisyach-viyskovih-novini-rosiji-50521182.html\">https:\/\/nv.ua\/ukr\/world\/geopolitics\/u-navchannyah-zahid-vizmut-uchast-vid-100-do-150-tisyach-viyskovih-novini-rosiji-50521182.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the comments section on johanno1.se agreed that nothing will happen, we can be assured that the participation will not exceed 13,000 and that the aforementioned Latvian general is completely wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have, in any case, started preparing a small tribute text for the booby-trap battalions for a job well done, etc. in case the comments section, against all odds, turns out to be wrong &#8211; it&#8217;s probably called a condolence text in Swedish?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Belarus has also announced that their new &#8220;elite unit&#8221; (and we&#8217;ve seen their Spetsnaz doing somersaults \ud83e\udd23) will be stationed at the border with Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kyivpost.com\/post\/57476\">https:\/\/www.kyivpost.com\/post\/57476<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It seems like I&#8217;ve been asleep at the wheel because the Chinese have already arrived in Belarus at the end of April &#8211; do you think they left \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/eng.belta.by\/society\/view\/chinese-servicemen-arrive-in-belarus-for-military-parade-167438-2025\">https:\/\/eng.belta.by\/society\/view\/chinese-servicemen-arrive-in-belarus-for-military-parade-167438-2025<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since only 13,000 will participate in Zapad 25 in Belarus, I am a bit puzzled as to how the Russians can send an entire long train to Belarus?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A Belarusian brigade towards the Ukrainian border is up to 3,500, then we have the old Wagner group which was 7,000 &#8211; 11,000 and sometimes 3,000, so I have no idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then we have the nuclear weapons, the two Russian military bases, the Regional Forces Group (RFG) which is a composite force, and probably the FSB and Rosgvardia to maintain order so that citizens don&#8217;t do anything they&#8217;re not supposed to, lucky that Europe turned their backs on them the last time around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Is the idea then that the 13,000 are not at all what is in Belarus but only those participating in Zapad 25?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So theoretically, Russia could build up a force of a few divisions in Belarus, but since they are not training, they are not counted &#8211; and are also not considered a threat according to everyone who voted?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine already warned last winter that Russia had deployed or would deploy 150,000 in Belarus for training &#8211; maybe they are not training during Zapad 25 but will start right after?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here you have reporting from Ukraine which is most concerned about Suwalki &#8211; everyone understands that Suwalki will be closed in the event of a conflict, but he points to the large forests and I had more in mind reconnaissance, Spetsnaz, mines, and drones, but he believes in a physical block with units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/euromaidanpress.com\/2025\/06\/25\/russia-suwalki-gap-nato-infiltration\">https:\/\/euromaidanpress.com\/2025\/06\/25\/russia-suwalki-gap-nato-infiltration<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alright &#8211; now that I have presented my thesis, one must start googling around, the starting point was when the first Russian troop train arrived in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have a small policy, never concoct your wild fantasies from someone else&#8217;s pre-packaged analysis &#8211; make it from scratch down to catching the chicken and slowly strangling it so it becomes halal or kosher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Using Google AI a bit &#8211; make an assumption and ask them, terrible AI because it has COMPLETELY missed the one below from Jamestown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, it has missed that a lot of what I wrote we can expect before a conflict has already occurred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, units that passed through Pskov but then did not show up in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/jamestown.org\/program\/russia-exploits-latvian-vulnerabilities-to-undermine-baltic-defenses-part-two\">https:\/\/jamestown.org\/program\/russia-exploits-latvian-vulnerabilities-to-undermine-baltic-defenses-part-two<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia has made efforts to conceal this capability buildup and much can be assumed to be in large storage facilities built in recent years for this purpose &#8211; like Palkino, for example, which I wrote about in a post that apparently no one read.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Back to Belarus &#8211; the country has, since the summer of 2023, had thousands of Wagner instructors, but also trained reservists in batches and conducted joint exercises with China and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We can probably assume that they now have a little over 18,000 in their ground forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their Special Operations Forces also fought in Kursk, but reportedly fled first of all, even faster than the North Koreans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the past few months, GPS jamming from Kaliningrad and Belarus has escalated and the Baltic Fleet has been fully active.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There has also been activity at air bases suitable for operations against the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have read my posts, you know that there is a Russian strategic reserve of 150,000 since probably before Christmas at some point, and if North Korea joins, there are an additional +50,000 in a readily available offensive reserve from the northern front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The command structure for the Baltic front has been in place for a long time in some new military district.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then you have everything Belarus can scrape together after over two years of capability buildup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Apparently, units have been observed traveling through cities east of the Baltics during the spring, but they have not shown up in Ukraine, and efforts have been made to conceal them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Where are these units located?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, it is really irrelevant whether Russia will attack the Baltics or move into Ukraine from Belarus or not &#8211; Europe must, for heaven&#8217;s sake, consider it and act accordingly \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, the author of the above article from Jamestown is not just guessing like I am from my parents&#8217; basement but has had some interesting intel and built his assumptions based on that, but ends up with the same conclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have already accepted that Europe will not move a single tripwire worth mentioning, but not doing so with the above intel must drive many of Europe&#8217;s senior military officials half-crazy. Since when was it fun to just sit still and wait to see if you will be overrun by tanks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What absolutely no one wants to hear is that the Russians&#8217; rolling wet drone cover 50km wide is just as effective as Ukraine&#8217;s and as deadly as a spitting cobra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Do you think all Polish and Baltic mechanized units have learned how to move under the drone cover yet, or will they have to learn the hard way when they first drive straight into it and then discover that a grouped brigade was just a big target?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The only thing that has worked in the Ukraine war in terms of defensive warfare is to dig in the shooters and mine as much as you can &#8211; then you become more than just a speed bump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Driving and banding on the road towards the combat area is an easy ticket nowadays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Suwalki and the Baltic Sea ports are closed, and threats are projected towards western Baltics, there is very little that can band eastward at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Anyway, the West has done the following recently &#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-nuclear weapons in the UK from the USA<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-two nuclear submarines after Trump&#8217;s incursion<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-American general promises to roll over Kaliningrad in case of conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-German F35s to Poland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-Polish major exercise during Zapad 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>-the Baltics want permission to pre-emptively strike inside Russia before active war breaks out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think this is a bit of an overreaction for 13,000 soldiers who will sleep in tents in eastern Belarus \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia has sent some ship(s) from the Northern Fleet into the Baltic Sea<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/www.thebarentsobserver.com\/security\/northern-fleet-frigate-exercises-in-baltic-sea\/431127\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Spain has been following a Ropucha vessel on its way to the Baltic Sea<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-zona-militar wp-block-embed-zona-militar\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"GKD0dfZqjs\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zona-militar.com\/en\/2025\/03\/20\/the-spanish-patrol-vessel-bam-audaz-monitored-the-transit-of-a-russian-navy-amphibious-assault-ship-and-a-frigate-between-the-mediterranean-and-the-atlantic\/\">The Spanish patrol vessel BAM Audaz monitored the transit of a Russian Navy amphibious assault ship and a frigate between the Mediterranean and the Atlantic<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"\u00abThe Spanish patrol vessel BAM Audaz monitored the transit of a Russian Navy amphibious assault ship and a frigate between the Mediterranean and the Atlantic\u00bb \u2014 Zona Militar\" src=\"https:\/\/www.zona-militar.com\/en\/2025\/03\/20\/the-spanish-patrol-vessel-bam-audaz-monitored-the-transit-of-a-russian-navy-amphibious-assault-ship-and-a-frigate-between-the-mediterranean-and-the-atlantic\/embed\/#?secret=HRv6iGKW5j#?secret=GKD0dfZqjs\" data-secret=\"GKD0dfZqjs\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Outside Norway, the Russian Northern Fleet has announced an exercise two weeks ago<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.arctictoday.com\/russia-locates-major-naval-exercise-in-previous-disputed-area-of-the-barents-sea-2\">https:\/\/www.arctictoday.com\/russia-locates-major-naval-exercise-in-previous-disputed-area-of-the-barents-sea-2<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you sum it all up, there are active Russian military preparations that they have not exactly kept secret &#8211; new command structure for war with the Baltics, new divisions, new storage facilities, and so on. We have seen it for several years.<\/p>\n\n\n<p>The Baltic Sea Fleet has now practiced three times in a year and will soon go out again, reinforced with ships from the Northern Fleet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Northern Fleet is training off the coast of Norway and also during Zapad 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Units have started arriving in Belarus, and the number of units in the country will far exceed the 13,000 promised as the exercise ceiling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the border with the Baltics, capability building has taken place, with the construction of huge depots and attempts to conceal movements at train stations with camouflage nets and tarpaulins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Units that moved through nodes like Pskov have not appeared in Ukraine but are somewhere else \u2013 initially it was artillery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m not great at history other than what I&#8217;ve learned from Rise of Nations and Netflix in my parents&#8217; basement, but when you have a list of the above war preparations, wars have generally broken out sooner or later, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It might not happen in September 2025, but can one really take the chance that it won&#8217;t happen \ud83d\ude36<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine did that and bitterly regretted it, but they managed to narrowly avoid collapse because Ukrainians are old-school fighters who never back down from a fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I don&#8217;t know how the Balts are, I can guess that the Poles are quite eager to fight, but neither have experience of warfare in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This one is interesting too<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cMeanwhile, analysts at <strong>AviVector <\/strong>recently <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/militarnyi.com\/uk\/news\/rosiya-pochala-dostavlyaty-do-bilorusi-vijskovi-vantazhi-litakamy-yl-76\/\">tracked<\/a> heavy Russian military transport flights, including Il-76 and An-124 planes, bringing cargo to Belarus, especially the Machulishchy airbase. This may signal troop buildup, though officials claim it\u2019s just exercise logistics\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"LT6jzh1gNm\"><a href=\"https:\/\/militarnyi.com\/uk\/news\/rosiya-pochala-dostavlyaty-do-bilorusi-vijskovi-vantazhi-litakamy-yl-76\/\">\u0420\u043e\u0441\u0456\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0447\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u0434\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0442\u0438 \u0434\u043e \u0411\u0456\u043b\u043e\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0456 \u0432\u0456\u0439\u0441\u044c\u043a\u043e\u0432\u0456 \u0432\u0430\u043d\u0442\u0430\u0436\u0456 \u043b\u0456\u0442\u0430\u043a\u0430\u043c\u0438 \u0418\u043b-76<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;\u0420\u043e\u0441\u0456\u044f \u043f\u043e\u0447\u0430\u043b\u0430 \u0434\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0442\u0438 \u0434\u043e \u0411\u0456\u043b\u043e\u0440\u0443\u0441\u0456 \u0432\u0456\u0439\u0441\u044c\u043a\u043e\u0432\u0456 \u0432\u0430\u043d\u0442\u0430\u0436\u0456 \u043b\u0456\u0442\u0430\u043a\u0430\u043c\u0438 \u0418\u043b-76&#8221; &#8212; \u041c\u0456\u043b\u0456\u0442\u0430\u0440\u043d\u0438\u0439\" src=\"https:\/\/militarnyi.com\/uk\/news\/rosiya-pochala-dostavlyaty-do-bilorusi-vijskovi-vantazhi-litakamy-yl-76\/embed\/#?secret=UCJcwChI1w#?secret=LT6jzh1gNm\" data-secret=\"LT6jzh1gNm\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>My interpretation of the situation is as follows \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Zapad 21, Russia openly announced a massive participation and then attacked Ukraine in February 2022. They managed to deceive Europe into believing there wouldn&#8217;t be war, and the court jesters Macron and Scholz also deceived Zelensky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are now in a situation where Russia has the war in Ukraine under control with the help of Trump, and Europe has proven to be passive spectators, nothing more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Zapad 25, Russia has promised 13,000 participants and that everything will be in eastern Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cUnlike the 2021 cycle, when trainloads of Russian equipment had <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pravda.com.ua\/rus\/news\/2021\/07\/21\/7301262\/\">begun arriving<\/a> in Belarus by July, this year there have been no major deployments, just a few Russian <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/isans.org\/military\/overview-of-military-activity-in-belarus-june-2025.html\">military cargo flights<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Western officials don\u2019t see a serious threat at this stage either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Secretary General Mark Rutte has <a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pravda.com.ua\/eng\/news\/2025\/06\/23\/7518360\/\">said<\/a> he does not consider a Russian attack on NATO after Zapad-2025 to be a realistic threat.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eurointegration.com.ua\/eng\/articles\/2025\/07\/31\/7217088\">https:\/\/www.eurointegration.com.ua\/eng\/articles\/2025\/07\/31\/7217088<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rutte completely overlooks that in 2021, it was the first time Russia was going to war in a long time, and in 2025, they have been at war for over three years and have continuously built up capabilities in the area they have tried to conceal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The exercise has been scrutinized, and even though the Baltic Sea Fleet has now completed its third exercise in a year and will go out again in a month, reinforced by the Northern Fleet, the exercise poses no threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have googled, and Europe\/NATO\/the Balts don&#8217;t seem to have any major exercises planned?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/xpert.digital\/sv\/sapad-2025\">https:\/\/xpert.digital\/sv\/sapad-2025<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, Poland has decided not to take any chances, and German aircraft have arrived in Poland, and the Germans will flex their muscles a bit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The threat is not against Poland, so what the Poles do is not very interesting; the important thing is what is NORTH of the Suwalki Gap if things escalate because it will be closed days before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If I were Russia, I would try to launch a surprise attack on the Baltics rather than flaunt my intentions, and I would try to tie up the defense forces of Poland and Finland by instead openly displaying these units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then I would use the Baltic Sea Fleet, and all of the above could happen openly under the pretext of Zapad 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then I would conceal my intentions towards the Baltics, and I think we can see clear signs of that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What should keep our leaders, military, and experts awake at night is the stealthy capability buildup towards the Baltics \u2013 they do not want to project a threat that actually exists there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When has it ever been a tool in the Russian toolbox to downplay threats?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If one wants to attack Ukraine from Belarus, one should have projected the greatest possible threat against the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If one now wants to attack the Baltics, one should project the greatest possible threat against Poland, Finland, and Ukraine and downplay the threat against the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Baltics have defense forces of 6,000 each, and Russia is currently waging a war with drones, Geran, robots, and artillery that make mass attacks less important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One can attack into the Baltics with significantly fewer numbers than in Ukraine and still advance rapidly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then one can have a &#8220;second wave of attacks&#8221; prepared but at a distance, and what would be better than if they were in Belarus?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because no one will be able to attack Belarus first \u2013 they are a neutral country, and we are cowards to the core, and there are Chinese there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And in Belarus, Russia can build up as much as they want because everything is Zapad 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Right now, and this may change if Europe acts decisively, unfortunately, I only see that Europe is ready to sacrifice the Baltics but not Poland \u2013 it&#8217;s hard to come to any other conclusion with the actual preparations being made \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It has taken me a while to accept this, but that&#8217;s how it looks right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have five weeks until the exercise starts, but only an idiot would mark the date Russia tells us as the date we must be ready \u2013 units should already have started moving into eastern Baltics and be on defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Substack \u2013 there is still a chance to become subscribers, and it would be valuable to me if you want to become paying ones. All content is posted freely to everyone, but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a meal at McDonald&#8217;s, so it&#8217;s also healthy \u2013 Johan No.1 makes you healthier too \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Continued appreciation for the site johanno1.se is always gratefully received, and there is a QR code for the purpose that you absolutely must not miss as we have costs, and there is a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you liked the post \u2013 please share it in your channels, and most importantly, share the English version with people you think may appreciate posts and comments they haven&#8217;t been able to read before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\">https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:ohanno1.se\">johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:substack.com\/@johanno1\">substack.com\/@johanno1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\">https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A Latvian general warns that up to 150,000 Russian and Belarusian soldiers will participate in Zapad 25 https:\/\/nv.ua\/ukr\/world\/geopolitics\/u-navchannyah-zahid-vizmut-uchast-vid-100-do-150-tisyach-viyskovih-novini-rosiji-50521182.html Since the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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