When Orban says that Russia is too weak to attack NATO, it’s probably time to start worrying \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n
https:\/\/tvpworld.com\/87188101\/hungarys-orbn-says-russia-too-weak-to-attack-nato<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n The other scenario I haven’t gotten to yet is – somewhere and that Russia comes up with some mischief with them, but I’ll come back to that – the problem Russia has there is that China doesn’t like it, and if anyone has a grip on Putin, it’s everyone’s Xi Jinping.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In May, Estonia had Operation Hedgehog where over 3000 British soldiers participated in a mechanized brigade format with a lot of capabilities – at the end of May, they returned to the UK \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.army.mod.uk\/news\/british-and-estonian-troops-stronger-together-as-exercise-hedgehog-ends<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n In the event of war, this brigade’s destination is indeed Estonia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I don’t know what the trigger is for the brigade to land in Estonia – the UK can decide to send it on its own without “Article 5,” but does it need to be voted on in parliament first or is this under the Chief of Defence or the government’s mandate?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Someone who knows may be able to explain this in more detail because if it needs to go through parliament, it could take days at the fastest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Anyway, it took the brigade 48 hours to move to Estonia, and it is in “high readiness” in the UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since it was an exercise and they had prepared, everything went faster, but we can assume that they are sitting in the vehicles with the engines running when Zapad 25 kicks off in mid-September, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n If this brigade is not in Estonia before the Russian Baltic Fleet leaves the ports and Russia crosses the border, it will never reach Estonia. What will happen is that Russia will scream and promise to shoot down anything moving within their exercise area, which will then become a conflict zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And no country will risk losing an entire brigade on a boat in the Baltic Sea, period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I have looked at how Sweden has handled Gotland, and every time before Zapad 25 or an increased threat, we have reinforced with some new capabilities months in advance – before Russia jumped on Ukraine in February 2022, we also strengthened Gotland. We have communicated it openly, clearly, and very Swedishly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe, the West, NATO, and the USA have always announced their exercises well in advance before the Russians start to move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So far this year, NATO and Europe have had exercises in the spring and in June where the forces then disappeared, meaning they left the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And from what I can gather, there are no other exercises planned by NATO or Europe during Zapad 25, except for Poland’s, Lithuania’s, and Germany’s. Germany has started to deploy forces, but to Poland and possibly Lithuania. I think when Lithuania is mentioned, it refers to the Suwalki area, but I’m not sure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As soon as the Russian Baltic Fleet leaves its ports for Zapad 25, the sea route to the Baltics is closed. No country will risk the “accidental shooting” that Putin will threaten with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Suwalki Gap is about 40km wide at its narrowest point with dense forest on both sides, and Germany is supposed to practice occupying it this summer – how do you keep it open against anti-tank mines and 4000 FPV drones per day hiding in the surrounding forest belts?<\/p>\n\n\n\n If it doesn’t work, I wouldn’t want to claim that Suwalki will also be closed to transit when Russia so desires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When I look at where these exercises in eastern Baltics have been, they are 50km inland from the border both in the north and south, by the way, but that may not be very important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n From what I can gather after a day of googling, NATO or Europe have no plans to group forces in the Baltics before Zapad 25 starts, and today is August 7, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Just to be clear – the Baltics are constantly asking for the USA, NATO, and Europe to group forces in their countries pronto – they want a “force posture” ahead of Zapad 25, which is what I’m discussing, right? \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/newsukraine.rbc.ua\/news\/us-has-not-guaranteed-troop-presence-in-baltic-1753904335.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n At least the Belarus opposition candidate says that if\/when the Russians attack the Baltics, Belarus will not participate – the tricky part then is that targets in Belarus cannot be taken out, but I don’t think she has malicious intentions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/2025\/06\/13\/russia-might-use-belarus-to-attack-the-baltics-but-belarusians-will-not-do-it-tsikhanouska<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n At any rate, the Baltics expect a war in the near future – they are concerned that Russia will build up capabilities through Zapad 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/kyivindependent.com\/talk-about-an-invasion-is-everywhere-how-lithuania-is-preparing-for-war-with-russia<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Poland has a counter-exercise during Zapad 25, Iron Defender, with 34,000 participants, which is the one we mentioned earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/armenpress.am\/en\/article\/1225545<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n What’s interesting is that Poland has managed to involve a whole bunch of NATO countries in the exercise, but the Baltic states don’t have any NATO countries willing to exercise there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In terms of risk, Poland is low-risk because they have a defense force, but the Baltics are high-risk as they are virtually undefended. So NATO should have its exercise in the Baltics and not in Poland, where they will try to defend the Suwalki Gap with tanks against drone swarms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n No matter how I twist and turn this, Europe and NATO don’t show any strong fists against a Russian invasion of the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now someone will shout – “you do understand that we can’t provoke Russia during Zapad 25.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n Oh really – Poland has managed to involve 16 NATO countries in a major exercise with 34,000 troops, probably one of the largest post-Cold War exercises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The next vibrating uvula – “there is a solid plan to support the Baltics.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n Oh really – as soon as the Russian Baltic Fleet is out of port, that plan becomes obsolete, and the Suwalki Gap is closed at the same time, it’s just that Europe and NATO won’t discover it before we try to pass through the area and get lost in a cloud of FPV drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The possible MUST employee No Idea has on my Substack (which I hope you have subscribed to and not forgotten about the paid subscription either) announced that the Russian “tugboat” S123 is lying over a somewhat sensitive (communication) cable outside the Baltics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A big step backward – do you remember that Estonia and Finland were supposed to start stopping the shadow fleet, and the rest of Europe took a firm stance – now they were supposed to get the environmentally hazardous and uninsured ships out of the Baltic Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Did it strike you that the discussion has died down now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n That’s because Russia has declared that the fleet and air force are now protecting the shadow fleet, which accounts for just over 70% of it moving up and down along Europe’s coasts and into the Baltic Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Another red line and a violent threat that we have backed down on accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This one was interesting too<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.gisreportsonline.com\/r\/russia-baltics-security<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe fundamental issue is that traditional wargaming of attack scenarios offers insufficient grounds to conclude that Russia would not launch a war it could not win. While such wargames might predict a swift Russian defeat, the nature of warfare is transforming, making it exceedingly difficult to foresee when, if or how an armed standoff will erupt into a shooting war. In this new environment of smoke and mirrors, the Russian regime seemingly remains convinced it can prevail\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n My proposal based on Rise of Nations has as known been the following –<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Russia intends to test Article 5 without triggering a response; if they assess that the entire Baltics can be conquered, they will go for it (born a bit later in the analysis).<\/p>\n\n\n\n -EU will through this black swan be subjected to economic warfare, perhaps the USA sees its chance to push us down a couple of notches so we ONCE AGAIN become dependent on those who were during the cold war. Now that Trump has a trade agreement, this theory is gaining popularity in the cottages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -If you have read my posts, the Russian war is just a prelude to China’s grand blow, the purpose is to unlock Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n All I hear right now is, “Russia wouldn’t dare,” “Russia doesn’t have the capability,” “Russia would never open a two-front war,” “NATO is strong,” and so on endlessly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One is thinking wrong, Russia intends to restore the Soviet Union, is in a war economy, has an expiration date, and the window to retake the Baltics closes around mid-2026 perhaps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Has Europe done anything so far to stop Russia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do we trust Trump?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Does China intend to escalate (likely because they say so)?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Two-front war – the chance for Russia that Europe and the USA do not intervene is not nonexistent, and the defense forces of the Baltics are like the Swedish ones, minus a body of water in between.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If one intends to sift through 150,000 more, it is best done in the Baltics and not in Ukraine, which turns them into mush, and the window is at most a year from September 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Perhaps things are not in order yet, perhaps Europe manages to catch up, perhaps, perhaps – but the risk is extremely high right now, I don’t think Europe has been closer to a war since the late 80s, except for the period before Russia chose Ukraine as a target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is a lot going on behind the scenes, with the US making all these tough statements now, for example, and then they have higher activity at their bases around Europe – a pretty big assumption is that Trump is Krasnov or something.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Trump turns out to be a president we have just misunderstood, then he has a lot to back up his threats with, which Europe does not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I can only really imagine two outcomes of Zapad 25, either Russia increases in Ukraine while projecting a threat to the Baltics and Poland, or they attack the Baltics while projecting a threat to Poland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Possibly something towards somewhere, but China doesn’t want that, and the third is that they start building up from Zapad 25 but a conflict breaks out a few months later, which is not unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia is very fond of creating a smokescreen and then doing something completely different – that’s their reptilian brain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since Poland and Germany may have exercises in Poland that spill over a bit into Lithuania, presumably the Suwalki area, other countries in Europe could have exercises in Estonia and Latvia, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our rotating battalion should immediately be sent to Latvia, for example, and Norway and Denmark should each send a battalion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If we can gather 50,000 in eastern Estonia and Latvia, the threat level goes down to yellow, and we have done what we always say we do – defend the free world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The ones with the best insight here are probably the Balts, Poland, and Ukraine, and they all warn that Zapad could turn into a violent brawl – should we just ignore it in the rest of Europe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack – there is still a chance to become subscribers and it would be valuable to me if you want to become paying ones. All content is posted freely to everyone, but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a meal at McDonald’s, so it’s also healthy – Johan No.1 makes you healthier too \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Continued appreciation for the site johanno1.se is always gratefully received, and there is a QR code for the purpose that you absolutely must not miss as we have costs, and there is a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you liked the post – please share it in your channels, and most importantly, feel free to share the English version with people you think may appreciate posts and comments they have not been able to read before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n