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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nIf it becomes a global conflict, we can all forget about sitting with a mountain of equipment and fighting against a poorly equipped enemy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since Murphy’s law applies, and you have a company commander who was a municipal middle manager, it will be you who sits with two magazines of 5.56 and watches an attacking mechanized battalion, looking for at least one hand grenade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In addition to our armaments industry still being a joke \u2013 Ukrainian Bohdana is being built 20 times faster than Archer, for example, stolen from the comments section on johanno1.se.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
https:\/\/omni.se\/ukraina-forlitar-sig-allt-mer-pa-eget-artilleri\/a\/nyz1zn<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n So there isn’t much psychological warfare to shape our future soldiers that it’s time to go to war. Russia has deeply indoctrinated its citizens, and it still works after three years of absolute chaos that not many defense forces would have accepted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n How will we solve this in Europe \u2013 voluntary recruitment or general mobilization?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Is it even being discussed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n By now, it should be tough to dress in green and the better your target practice, the more status you have at the bar when you show the target with all the holes. And if you’re in M90 pants in your Tinder profile picture, your phone never stops blinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Israel, service in the paratroopers or better is worth more than a degree from Harvard when applying for a job after military service.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What does the employer say if you show up to a job interview in home guard attire and polished boots \u2013 and with a shaved head say that your hobby is going to the shooting range \u2013 will you get the job?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since 2022, Ukraine has been our crash pad and asked for one thing \u2013 weapons to win the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now they haven’t received it, and countless times they have been stopped when things were going too well, so now we have reached a very sad milestone, but Ukraine is the last to blame for this milestone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Zelensky admits that Ukraine will accept a ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump’s proposal is claimed to have leaked \u2013 a rumor at best, but it will still end up like this because there will be a ceasefire at the junction between the units at the fronts, and then everything will freeze \u2013 I’m not saying the proposal is accurate, but something similar will happen in the end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump is now also putting enormous pressure on Ukraine, you can be sure of that \u2013 this one was from CNN, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2025\/08\/08\/politics\/pentagon-could-divert-weapons-for-ukraine-us-stockpiles<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Is anyone hearing anything from Macron, Starmer, or Merz right now, Macron is in a war with his wife, but Merz promised less than a month ago that Germany would help Ukraine until they have regained their land, is that no longer valid?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Short half-life for political promises nowadays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A little digression, but Trump and Putin will politically try to bring down Zelensky for this ceasefire, so the country will be plunged into chaos post-ceasefire, but that’s another discussion \u2013 those who have read the posts know exactly what will happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What is worrying about this ceasefire is \u2013 why now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Putin has not yet achieved his objectives, Kostiantynivka will never be conquered as RU is still outside a well-prepared hedgehog defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, I am of the opinion that Pokrovsk is a matter of time before UA retreats from it, but many are unhappy with that opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Putin also has a large area west of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk to conquer and will surely need at least until next summer, provided Ukraine doesn’t make it easy for him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To me, it looks like Putin and Trump have agreed on a ceasefire before Zapad 25 starts \u2013 it’s forced, and Putin is accommodating Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Media and many others still report everything that happens as “now damn it,” “Trump is fooled,” “negotiations are progressing” \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n Try for heaven’s sake to understand that everything is predetermined \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump does nothing without first checking with Putin \u2013 a bit like I’m now completely ecstatic that I’m sitting and talking to Johnny Lawrence and Larusso on X and that they like me and continue to discuss my ideas. It’s marketing, and I’m talking to a communication team (but I’m still as happy as a child).<\/p>\n\n\n\n So…<\/p>\n\n\n\n Putin has much more leverage, we know that, and he is advancing on all fronts \u2013 over time, UA will retreat to their defense line outside Donetsk Oblast that they have built because they are pragmatic and know that they will have Donetsk negotiated for them by Trump \u2013 believe me \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n So why a ceasefire right now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n My best guess is that Putin will jump on the Baltics or escalate in Ukraine to cut the whole country off from Belarus and Transnistria. After that, violence against somewhere is next on the list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China has also entered its period where the weather is favorable to go after Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Due to Iran, Trump has unlocked a lot of USA’s capabilities in the MENA region, by the way \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n It would almost be a stroke of genius to now come out strongly with “peace in our time” in Ukraine while Russia and maybe China are preparing for the next big blow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia’s threat to Europe is just a diversion, not for Russia but for China, so they will come up with some mischief too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China is already in an economic war with the West and their economy is shaky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia is in a war economy and it has an end date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Both despots can choose to quietly sink with the ship and crash their countries, or go all in and hope to come out on top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our self-image in Europe will continue to be challenged in the coming months, I guess. First and foremost, we will soon realize that what the USA did was to economically trap us so we became dependent on them (again). The USA liked the Cold War.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Just look at how the USA used WW2 to economically weaken England and let the Soviet Union become a major threat to Europe. Those in the USA who advocated for a war against the Soviet Union were quickly silenced – Patton, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Roosevelt sat at meetings between him, Stalin, and Churchill and openly mocked Churchill, agreeing with Stalin on everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The next blow is that we will not be able to manufacture what we need for defense because China effectively controls the components and raw materials we need – just holding back one ingredient would mean no propellants for the 155mm shells at all, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n “we have all this within Europe, do not worry”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yes, we do BUT IT HAS A LEAD TIME BEFORE IT IS PROCESSED AND AT THE INDUSTRY because at various times we have shut down all mining and processing to save the environment after pressure from environmental movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Soon, a group will say – “it’s no use trying, we might as well give up”, you will start hearing from this gang very soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The others will swallow that they have fought against the wind for three years, pick up their AK4 and head to the nearest trench – you will all have my full support from the Caribbean \u270a<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then there is a very big weapon to fire – the great shutdown of Europe, the power grid is more fragile than a mayfly, MP has ensured that, but we also have all the technology that has Chinese components or is Chinese-made integrated into our various systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Of course, the Chinese have kill switches or backdoors – anything else would be a dereliction of duty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n (are there more Chinese components in our old nuclear power or in solar and wind power?)<\/p>\n\n\n\n If we then start counting – say mid-September and a few weeks of full chaos before Europe begins to settle down and prepare to teach the Russian bastards a lesson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have our retaliation to be voted on parliamentarily and where not all countries will get the majority needed but probably enough to start targeting Russian goals – we have robots, aircraft, long-range indirect fire, and the navy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, we have not infiltrated for thirty years for sabotage like Israel did with Iran and we do not have a drone weapon worth mentioning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Slovakia and Hungary will of course block everything in the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia has coldly calculated on this and their doctrine is ALWAYS to escalate the level of violence until the opponent gives up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What does Russia have to try to match our terrible doomsday retaliation with?<\/p>\n\n\n\n -A couple of hundred Gerandrones daily against targets in Europe that are now logged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -2000 Russian robots in storage against high-value targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -The Russian Baltic Sea Fleet emptying its robot tubes before it sinks, maybe they won’t bother salvaging it anyway so I doubt this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -A nuclear-armed submarine surfacing in the Stockholm strait and Putin declaring that the captain is drunk and has mutinied – the only way to get him to hand over the nuclear weapons is if Sweden immediately makes peace with Russia, and we have two hours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -A couple of hundred ships from the shadow fleet forming a pearl necklace around the entire European coast – drone platforms or floating bombs?<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Thousands of FPV drones per day reaching 50km beyond the active front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Gangs and criminal clans carrying out acts of terror and sabotage for payment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Islamists carrying out spectacular acts of terror “for ISIS”, bombs against subways, shopping malls, and so on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Political parties and bought parliamentarians voting against necessary decisions as long as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Murders of key personnel, both political and military. A robbery gone wrong, home invasion, unexplained heart attack, and the whole dance where they even explained away a British spy found dead in a suitcase as suicide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Blown-up substations, toppled pylons for power lines, and constant power outages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Solar panels’ circuit boards inexplicably catching fire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Viruses and hacker attacks against BankID, Swish, banks, internet, and payment systems in stores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since Russia has already carried out HUNDREDS of sabotages in Europe in recent years, it is not far-fetched to guess that they have planned for all of the above – probably more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Are we ready for this?<\/p>\n\n\n\n I can tell you that some countries in Europe will back down immediately – Spain is a good candidate, for example, to choose to continue with the siesta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Some major leaders will fall politically because the subversive activities will aim for that. Kier Starmer has a short half-life, I’m pretty sure, he has been a weak leader in bad times and is even despised by his own party, which is a bit of a record even for a Brit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There will immediately be a discussion whether it would not be worth sacrificing the Baltics and Ukraine for peace in our time because that is exactly what Putin will say – “we promise you eternal peace if we just get BACK the Baltics which are OURS really”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n All of the above will not happen overnight but gradually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Imagine the feeling when governments realize that their civilian and military intelligence services have not been tracking Russian citizens since the early 90s to profile them or have had sabotage groups infiltrated in Russia – but instead stand there asking the government what to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Did you know that in 2024, the EU granted half a million Russian citizens from Russia a Schengen visa \ud83d\ude2d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Or that each country’s Chief of Defense shrugs and says, “yes, we can maybe send a brigade but without air defense” when politicians, after a difficult vote, agree that the army should be put on a war footing to inflict “a stinging defeat on the Russian bastards that makes Svensksund appear as a great victory for them”.<\/p>\n\n\n Yes, I’m being a bit sarcastic beyond what is necessary but the fact that Europe hasn’t sent troops to the Baltics, despite the Baltics begging for it, has made me upset and somewhat worried about our leaders’ long-term planning here – there’s a risk that Baltics will be sacrificed for eternal peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Or of course, it won’t be like that, and we’ll be standing there saying – “The Suwalki Gap is closed and the Baltic Sea Fleet has opened the missile hatches, it’s impossible to send anything to the Baltics, sorry we really wanted to help you but we can’t – the losses among the reconnaissance platoon that was attacked in Suwalki have been absolutely horrific, indescribable scenes of lightly wounded soldiers driving back in their vehicles.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then Europe won’t be able to agree on retaking the Baltics, many leaders will say “yes, we are ready but everyone else must be on board,” Trump will say “you in Europe have to solve this, I warned you,” and so on, but the result will be that Baltics were de facto sacrificed on the altar of peace, again…<\/p>\n\n\n\n And after that, WW3 will start, right – now we’ve all lived through COVID but back then there were no power outages, rationing, mobilization, you had a child at the frontlines and all that. Restrictions on personal freedom were there for many but not in Sweden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Jobs will be difficult, traveling will be difficult, and maybe you’ll have to spend a few years mobilized somewhere at a post in the Swedish countryside and be intellectually challenged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Ukraine, there are a few hundred thousand people at the frontlines out of 1.5 million in the armed forces, but the country’s 40 million citizens are all affected by the war in different ways – refugees, internally displaced persons, unemployed, lack of money, fear of bombings, stress over family members at the frontlines, and so on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The same will apply to us – our everyday life will be interrupted, and then after 4-5 years when we’ve learned to live with it, everything suddenly ends when the news shows a Putin dangling by his feet at a gas station and someone sets fire to the deeply marinated despot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then everything will suddenly return to normal, a child who has fallen, another who has lost their legs, no job, and so on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And we are the ones who have fared the best – countries that are overrun have torture centers in every little hole that, lacking victims, have resorted to stealing them from each other. Castration, rape, torture, starvation, amputations, murder of absolutely everyone down to five-year-old children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Those who find themselves on the wrong side of an agreed line when it’s time for peace in our time will have another 70 years of this to look forward to, and if they try to flee to us in the West, we send them back on returning trains to not break the agreement – always follow an agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But we have peace, and that’s the most important thing of all \u270a<\/p>\n\n\n\n The world is never fair, but there’s a big difference between being restrained and just going along or being a coward. Ukraine doesn’t deserve the fate they’re about to face, and neither does the Baltics in the worst case scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And the worst part is that it’s completely unnecessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1, 2, 3… so those who write that a ceasefire in Ukraine is a disaster will be called warmongers, and many you thought were sensible friends will say, “it’s probably for the best, war is terrible.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Germany, during the first quarter, (Russian) reconnaissance drones were observed 500 times. Are those just the ones that were detected, or what?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Any of you remember all the drones over Gotland and then when the armed forces had a very hastily arranged long exercise on Gotland that became permanent?<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-society\/4023658-over-500-spy-drones-spotted-over-germany-during-first-quarter-of-year.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n All signs are there that Russia is preparing for war – it could come now, in six months, or in a few years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But taking a chance that it won’t come to the Baltics now is damn negligence and should be punishable by law \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack – there’s still a chance to become subscribers and it’s valuable to me if you want to become paying ones. All content is posted freely to everyone, but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a dinner at McDonald’s, so it’s also healthy – Johan No.1 makes you healthier too \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Continued appreciation for the site johanno1.se is always gratefully received, and there’s a QR code for the purpose that you absolutely must not miss as we have costs, and there’s a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we’ve learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you liked the post – please share it in your channels, and most importantly, feel free to share the English version with people you think might appreciate posts and comments they haven’t been able to read before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n