{"id":2401,"date":"2025-08-12T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T05:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/ukraine-daily-update-august-12-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-08-13T14:50:27","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T12:50:27","slug":"ukraine-daily-update-august-12-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/ukraine-daily-update-august-12-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine daily update August 12, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Two bad news, and one good \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RU has fired 670 loitering munitions at the Dnieper front in one day, fire-and-forget drones. This is a bit newer than FPV on a wire and something China has probably helped with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That’s how I interpret loitering munitions, otherwise it usually says FPV or (kamikaze) drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/4024105-russian-troops-significantly-increase-use-of-loitering-munitions-in-south.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second is that north of Pokrovsk, Russia stepped right over Ukraine’s new very strong defense line as it had no personnel in the trenches and was just an empty trench.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Ukraine is also releasing the cream forests, but that probably doesn’t matter much anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The positive news is that Ukraine is engaging in delaying tactics and has withdrawn units \u2013 the offensive reserve I’m talking about definitely exists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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David D has found new markings which mean offensive, but Trump is like a wet blanket over everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Here you have indirect fire shot by RU in one day, taken from johanno1.se comments section;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

111 KAB, 6 009 shells (105 from MLRS), 4 615 kamikaze drones.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do you think we in Europe could fire 670 fire-and-forget drones in one day, I don’t even think we have that many deployed, or 4600 kamikaze drones every day?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, we can go a long way with a soldier in a trench behind mines with a rifle and extra magazines \u2013 that’s not something you easily overcome assuming they are in the right place and not lying on their backs \u2013 reaching the trench is the difficult part in the war of 2025, so 90% is about being ahead in planning and not being reactive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When you have a drone weapon, you can do like Ukraine, keep the personnel down and instead increase the drone umbrella, but in the absence of that, shooting is the primary option, which we in Europe will have to rely on for quite some time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe should be extremely cautious about who we listen to now and just do the right thing. The right thing is to deploy troops in the Baltics because we have promised them in writing and verbally that we will, as for now, shooting is our salvation so they must be in the trenches along the border for a while before Zapad 25 kicks off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The right thing is also not to accept anything with Ukraine, although there may be ceasefires that we practically cannot prevent, Europe should then reinforce Ukraine to such an extent that Moscow will be in trouble in less than three years \u2013 so we must have a higher production rate than China if we can manage it when we don’t have the necessary raw materials \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Words are nothing, actions are everything \u2013 now in 2025, it’s as simple as if you can’t back up your promises and threats with a proportional amount of weapons and violence, no one will take you seriously. It hasn’t progressed excessively fast so everyone who wanted to adjust has been able to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If nothing else, China has managed to rebuild a Russian arms industry that was in ruins in just two years, is China better than us \u2013 is our self-image skewed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The right thing is also not to bow down to Trump \u2013 the USA has never done what is best for Europe in modern times, and the last time we listened to the USA we ended up in a cold war and the USA threw Poland under the bus. Western leaders scolded Poland’s exiled government when they opposed the annexation \u2013 how could they want to oppose peace in our time, to go under Soviet rule for everyone’s sake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The right thing is also to arm ourselves and realize that we are now at war \u2013 prepare the citizens for it, “kill the reds”, “a dead Russian is a good Russian”, “now you will pay for Svensksund you Russian bastards” and all that which we apparently have forgotten since the 90s. Inhumane and Russophobia you say, but the parents who were forced to watch their five-year-old children being raped, tortured, and ultimately murdered in front of them by laughing Kadyrovites still think we are overly naive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, let’s not repeat 1939-1940, we swept through the whole of Europe in a few months back then where the Baltics, Poland, and the Jews had to foot the bill. Life under occupation was not exactly great unless you were one of the above or later had your country negotiated away under Soviet protection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In my job, I have a rule, when different factions start to fight and I stand in the middle and become a punching bag \u2013 always do the right thing, do what the contract and the numbers say, nothing else. You will always make one of the parties angry, but if you have done the right thing, you have not done wrong, and that is the least bad option of the choices you have in front of you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That’s how Europe should think now too \u2013 unfortunately, Europe’s proposal after the meeting with Zelensky is to have a ceasefire to begin with, they present it as a demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is exactly what Putin wants a month before Zapad 25 \ud83d\ude2d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Trump under Putin’s GRU\/FSB unit leadership is a bit like a severely overweight sheepdog right now herding the bleating and loosely running lambs Merz, Macron, and Starmer into the trap without the little creatures on shaky newborn legs really understanding what’s happening. They listen to the tone and see the direction, then they run in that direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s a bit tear-inducing, especially since Europe’s experts and military personnel engage in wishful thinking, or maybe they are bought off by the Russians \u2013 the latter would be both smart and very Russian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carsten Bauer said in June that Russia could attack in four years<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/c62v63gl8rvo<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2024, he said 5-8 years, so fairly consistent even though it has narrowed down to a specific year now instead of a longer interval. If we want to be picky, he shaved off three years in one year even though Russia couldn’t make up for three years in one year, so he has significantly adjusted his analysis because he was wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The whole world is echoing 4 years right now \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.swissinfo.ch\/eng\/russia-may-be-ready-to-attack-nato-in-5-8-years%2C-german-official-says\/75981012<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2016, the USA conducted a war game and concluded that the Baltics would be overrun in 60 hours, and that was before the Balts gave all their equipment to Ukraine, Russia had three years of work experience and the new black, drone weapon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn 2016, NATO\u2019s worst nightmare was not a hypothetical \u2013 it was a war game with a clock ticking down to defeat. Russian forces, simulated across multiple RAND Corporation scenarios, needed just 60 hours to reach the gates of Tallinn and Riga, effectively decapitating NATO\u2019s Eastern Flank before breakfast on day three\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Tallinn question<\/a><\/blockquote>