My hopes for the meeting between Trump, all the counted leaders of Europe, and Zelensky were rock bottom, but I am pleasantly surprised and will come back to that below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Usually, I find myself in similar toxic environments on projects, and it’s hard not to highly respect Zelensky, who not only has it 100 times harder in everything one finds so uncomfortable that they’d rather call in sick, but also carries his country’s fate on his shoulders where five-year-old children are raped and tortured-murdered if he fails. The worst that can happen to us is that we have to look for a new job.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putin has come out strong, and if he gets anything, he has won; he shouldn’t get a damn thing, and his country should collapse like a souffl\u00e9 \u2013 that’s how it should be, but that’s not how it is because we have a reality to deal with that one first gets a taste of when doing group work in school.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump has completely forgotten the Budapest Memorandum where half of the West and Russia promise to protect Ukraine against aggression, and then Russia has broken all agreements they made with Ukraine since 2014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The world breathed a sigh of relief, “Trump didn’t scold Zelensky, big win” \u2013 low expectations as mentioned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Don’t let Trump get away with a “Putin fooled him” just because he could behave at a meeting. Putin’s game is not to stop the course of events but to delay critical decisions as long as possible, and Trump is exactly driving that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It probably didn’t escape anyone that Trump praised Europe’s leaders and Zelensky more than they buttered him up \u2013 the rumor going around is that Europe has now threatened to start dumping US national debt, rumor or not, who knows…<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Just like everyone else, the USA also has a tightrope to walk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It’s bittersweet, this \u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-After 3.5 years, Europe’s leaders have finally gathered under the banner, those of you who have followed my world-leading texts know that in 2023 they called Zelensky ungrateful at the NATO meeting, in 2022 they barely dared to provide helmets in support, and in 2024, everyone laughed at Zelensky’s “victory plan” until they were lying on the floor writhing in cramps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The fact that they all interrupted their vacations to go and put pressure on Trump is a big deal, but when it comes to Europe, one is just as downcast as someone going through their third divorce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For Putin, this was not good at all; the meeting was almost the worst possible for him, and Zelensky has confirmed that they will meet with Putin in the future, so the meeting didn’t derail as soon as Europe’s leaders left, which was a concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The first negative is that in January 2024, Zelensky wanted to “continue fighting,” according to a Trump who couldn’t keep quiet, and now in late summer 2025, the line Europe is pushing at Zelensky’s request is an immediate ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Everyone can see that Putin told Trump not to agree to a ceasefire \u2013 Trump pursued it harder than he threw crap at Biden every other sentence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It’s easy to see who is under pressure on the fronts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The whole discussion about “peace agreements” and “peacekeeping troops” in Ukraine is extremely premature, and everyone involved actually knows it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unfortunately, Putin will probably increase the pressure on the fronts here, and Zapad 25 is probably part of this since the peace negotiations have gone up in smoke, so he can come up with something else, it fits in too well with the timing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only threat Europe’s leaders have delivered is that they will increase sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The strategic bombing war is in full swing now, and either Ukraine has received approval from Europe and Trump to target objectives in Russia, or they are doing it anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Refinery attacks are once again at a high level, the railway network is under attack, and other high-value targets are being engaged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unfortunately, Russia is doing the same in Ukraine, and they have boosted their shahids, while Ukraine is shooting down fewer, 88 out of 140.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/4026733-ukrainian-air-defenses-neutralize-88-out-of-140-russian-drones-overnight.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia has also acquired advanced Chinese anti-drone defense for certain targets, but apparently not enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Both parties have long-range weapons in their arsenal, for example, UA’s new version of the V1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/united24media.com\/latest-news\/exclusive-first-images-of-ukraines-flamingo-missile-with-claimed-3000-km-range-surface-online-10815<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n What Putin now has to factor in is a united Europe on the brink of entering the war; he doesn’t know when, and after a decision is made, it will be months before it makes a difference on the battlefield. But if he provokes Europe, we will join \u2013 I believe that’s what he took away from the meeting with Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hearing Stubb talk about barbarians and how Finland dealt with the Russian bastards in 1939 must have made him really furious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Remember what I wrote above \u2013 no one was interested in Zelensky’s victory plan in 2024, and at the NATO meeting in 2023, he was considered ungrateful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A sudden shift has occurred that didn’t escape Putin – the boundaries he can push have now changed, and this is what he has to deal with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On the other hand, Russia also has to try to come out of this unscathed, and a peace agreement where Europe sends troops to Ukraine and strengthens the UA defense forces is his absolute nightmare \u2013 it simply cannot happen, so it won’t happen for as long as possible with Trump’s help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He can control this by delaying everything with Trump’s help until Europe gets tired. The whole mechanism is designed not to be implementable in practice, but even Putin understands that at some point, someone will have had enough, and the first battalion in Ukraine will open the floodgates \u2013 and that he can never control. Macron is a good candidate because he has the Foreign Legion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I believe we are entering the most dangerous phase of the war \u2013 Putin is a cornered, rabid, black rat with his back against the wall, and decisions from Europe will take a long time, and everything can still be sabotaged by Trump for a while.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Feel free to come back in the comments, but to me, it looks like Putin’s only way forward is to increase pressure in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If he agrees to a ceasefire, Europe will bolster Ukraine beyond what he is comfortable with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What do we see in Putin’s actions?<\/p>\n\n\n\n -The beyond-the-wall scum is attacking on all fronts and advancing everywhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -The Ukrainian reserve at Pokrovsk, which chased around an MRR, was taken from Kostyianivka, Kupiansk, and Sumy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -At Zaporizha, RU is preparing to cross the Dnieper and attack northward on the southern front.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/4026914-russians-preparing-to-redeploy-assault-units-from-kherson-to-zaporizhzhia-direction-spox-voloshyn.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/4026922-in-south-enemy-increases-use-of-loitering-munitions-and-unguided-airtosurface-missiles-spox-voloshyn.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n -The use of “loitering munitions” is increasing significantly, FPV drones number 5000 daily, FAB 150 with thermobaric in the mix, and artillery 5000-6000 per day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/4026922-in-south-enemy-increases-use-of-loitering-munitions-and-unguided-airtosurface-missiles-spox-voloshyn.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Defending is painful nowadays, but the positive thing from Zelensky is that losses are 1:3 in favor of UA and 1:30 in KIA. In Bakhmut, the loss ratio was 1:7 according to Sirsky recently, and we can only speculate on KIA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/kyivindependent.com\/russian-losses-3-times-higher-than-ukraines-zelensky-says<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine is also subjected to 24\/7 Russian subversive activities, and they are constantly trying to assassinate leaders \u2013 they have tried to assassinate Budanov and Zelensky 10 times, and most recently, they started targeting competent brigade commanders, which was quite clever, actually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The only thing a Russian bastard can do is to increase the level of violence if the use of violence does not yield increased results \u2013 someone said that on the other blog early in 2022 and it’s true, what a genius.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In three weeks we will have Zapad 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia has been and will continue to move troops into Belarus, they are testing robots and nuclear forces, and the Belarusian defense forces are on the move (which they have been throughout an entire war).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Does anyone believe that Ukraine has a well-fortified border against Belarus when they had to withdraw troops from active fronts to plug a hole in Pokrovsk?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Perhaps Poland and France could help out nicely by conducting all their training of Ukrainian forces there in Belarus, but unfortunately that won’t happen before Zapad 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the Dnieper front, there are also long distances between the trenches, and RU will cross over there as soon as they can.<\/p>\n\n\n\n No European soldier will set foot down there for many months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Therefore, I claim that everything now depends on Ukraine – in the next six months, they only have the equipment they have, and Europe will not send troops to Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Zelensky has had several meetings with Europe, and I believe he has been honest \u2013 if you don’t support us now, we will collapse, it’s up to you what you want to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n How Ukraine is expected to wage war against China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and an African personnel pool, and be actively opposed by Trump, can only lead to one outcome reasonably if Europe does not support more actively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe does not feel they can declare war on Russia, but what we could do was show that we stand behind Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The meeting with Trump was one thing, and Hungary and Slovakia now getting the big cod was another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Probably the refineries are a third, and that “rumor” about us starting to dump US government debt a fourth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have shown a bit of soft handling here at the end after over three years, very padded boxing gloves and not full contact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I know that it is truly 11:59, and maybe it is too late, but I want to believe that Europe has now given Ukraine hope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If the shooters only feel hope, they can endure this inferno for as long as necessary, but we have now reached a turning point \u2013 from here, it can only get better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For someone who constantly works with risk and trying to solve problems before they hit the deadline like a ton of bricks, this was all too late, but then it is also said, “better late than never.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n The risk of an attack on the Baltics has decreased, and the risk of increased pressure on Ukraine from Transnistria and Belarus has increased \u2013 I know that MXT has always believed in an attack on the Baltics, but he can’t always be right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Europe wants to get out of this without dirtying their hands, this was a big step in the right direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I also want to give a shoutout to Finland, our vassal state, which is making an impact on the world stage more than our humanitarian superpower, which is deeply irritating and disrespectful to us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Stubb is a very exciting person as he has a unique ability to say what is needed and everyone still likes him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump must be considered quite difficult to deal with, and in the meeting, he got annoyed with Merz because he is typically German to the core.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meloni is interesting as well, and I think Trump is mostly afraid of being physically attacked and beaten up, but out of all the leaders in the room, Stubb earned respect, which no one else managed to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Stubb opened by saying that Finland has fought against Russia and in private, he is said to have called them barbarians \u2013 that’s the rumor which the Finns are now turning into a truth, of course \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n If, as a Finn, you get that strange feeling in your chest that you haven’t felt in many years \u2013 you deserve it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For those of you who still don’t understand, firstly, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Poland, and other small fry were not left out because we weren’t good enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And among the big ones who attended the meeting, there was only one person that Trump respected as a person and head of state \u2013 Stubb, the others he endured because he had to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After all, it’s about being able to handle Trump, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The fact that other leaders in Europe have not seen Stubb’s value means nothing, but you know who else has seen Stubb’s value \u2013 Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our northeastern flank against Russia is like the ice wall in Game of Thrones, thanks to Stubb and Finland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So…<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Don’t be fooled by a friendly Trump, the onion has many layers, and much more is needed before I change my mind on how he acts on the UA issue, and the likelihood of me doing so is low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Putin will now do the only thing a Russian bastard can do \u2013 increase the level of violence to blood-red.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Europe will not prevent the developments in Ukraine in the next 6-8-10 months but may impose more sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Ukraine is retreating everywhere, and morale has hit rock bottom after Trump’s rampages and Europe’s passivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -But now, yesterday, August 18th, the shooters got hope, and a motivated soldier in a trench can go a long way, especially a Ukrainian soldier who refuses to die and is good at killing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In 2022, the Russian soldiers learned the hard way what the Ukrainian spirit was all about, and in 2023-2024, the USA, without direct protests from Europe and sometimes with direct involvement, saved Russia from losing the war several times. We have been through that and also had it confirmed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In 2025, Trump and Putin together have increased the pressure on Ukraine to boiling point without Europe reacting, and China has also started to make moves. According to volunteers in Ukraine, the mood has been terrible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I believe that the Russian soldiers will once again experience what a motivated Ukrainian soldier is capable of, and the leadership in Russia will experience the true capacity of GUR without a leash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Everything is always relative, and the state of the Russian army is far from good \u2013 the A units are fine, but the B team just wants to go home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The blocking battalions never fight, so if the B team flees, they let the enemy through like a sieve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine de facto has an offensive reserve, but if they repeat 2023, the war is lost. Does anyone not think that the Wagner coup and our spring offensive were connected?<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack \u2013 there is still a chance to become subscribers, and it would be valuable to me if you want to become paying ones. All content is posted freely to everyone, but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a meal at McDonald’s, so it’s also healthy \u2013 Johan No.1 also makes you healthier \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Continued appreciation for the site johanno1.se is always gratefully received, and there is a QR code for the purpose that you absolutely must not miss as we have costs, and there is a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n If you liked the post – please share it in your channels and most importantly, share the English version with people you think might appreciate posts and comments they previously couldn’t read.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n