{"id":2518,"date":"2025-08-24T08:32:23","date_gmt":"2025-08-24T06:32:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/the-war-in-ukraine-2025-08-24\/"},"modified":"2025-08-25T11:13:47","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T09:13:47","slug":"the-war-in-ukraine-2025-08-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/the-war-in-ukraine-2025-08-24\/","title":{"rendered":"The war in Ukraine 2025-08-24"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Russian losses in Ukraine:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>910 KIA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>3 AFVs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>40 Artillery systems<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1 Anti-aircraft system<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>121 UAVs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>81 Vehicles &amp; Fuel tanks<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large losses\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025-08-24-819x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2514\" srcset=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025-08-24-819x1024.jpg 819w, https:\/\/johanno1.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025-08-24-240x300.jpg 240w, https:\/\/johanno1.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025-08-24-768x960.jpg 768w, https:\/\/johanno1.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2025-08-24.jpg 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>SLAVA UKRAINI<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USA and Europe&#8217;s plan for Ukraine<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When it comes to the US handling of the war in Ukraine, it has been discussed endlessly. During Biden&#8217;s presidency, the majority seems to agree that the plan was to provide Ukraine with just enough support to defend itself and not lose, but not enough to decisively win the war on the battlefield. One of the pieces of evidence for this is, for example, not allowing Ukraine to advance deep into Russian territory, but also asking them to halt their overly successful offensives, etc. <br>There are several motives behind this behavior. They do not want to be seen as the provocative party to avoid an escalation that could lead to a new world war, they are afraid that Putin might actually follow through on his threats to use nuclear weapons, etc. If Ukraine were to win decisively, it could lead to chaos in Russia, which in turn could lead to Putin being ousted, and parts of the country breaking up, etc. They know how to deal with Putin, but how will potential successors act and what happens if local leaders gain control of nuclear weapons, etc. <br>Another motive could possibly be that a too strong Ukraine might provoke them to seek revenge by entering Russia and trying to take Moscow.<br>Fear and cowardice would thus be the underlying cause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personally, I lean towards the idea that it is mainly about letting Russia slowly drain itself. War costs enormous amounts of money, and sooner or later Russia will not be able to continue fighting, primarily because they will no longer have the economy to support it, but also because the population will eventually grow tired as conditions worsen. Ukraine would win the war, but not due to superior military capability.<br>An economically devastated Russia forced to surrender could also be easier to negotiate peace with, as the prospect of lifted sanctions, etc., would be a significant incentive. The USA could also increase its influence by offering assistance with reconstruction, etc. Paradoxically, a weakened Russia could be a way to approach them and diminish the influence of their main adversary, China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other motives that may have led to not taking more action could be purely economic, combined with public opinion. War costs enormous amounts of money, and at some point, it naturally reaches a limit where people feel it is becoming too expensive, especially in the USA. If, for example, support to Ukraine had been significantly increased, it might not have been just the MAGA supporters who started to grumble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The plan itself is not inherently flawed from a purely American perspective. At the same time, it is extremely cynical towards Ukraine and its population. Ukraine is losing soldiers and civilians every day, not to mention cities and infrastructure being leveled to the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukraine has not been provided with enough resources in terms of air defense, etc., to stop the nightly terror attacks, they have not been assisted with air support to control Ukrainian airspace, etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regarding Europe, it seems that they have completely let the USA take the lead, and they seem to have roughly the same end goal since they have not done more for Ukraine. However, this could also be due to being war-weary and simply having downsized their defense capabilities, so they have not had an excess of military equipment to send, and production has been running at a low capacity. Nevertheless, it is clear that more could have been done faster since support was gradually increasing. Unfortunately, this increase seems to have stalled more recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The plan to let Russia drain itself and prevent Ukraine from losing not only requires limiting support and preventing them from winning, but also entails preventing them from losing. When North Korea sends materials and soldiers, and China increases its support to Russia, the West must increase its support at the same rate for the plan to hold. This has not happened, and it is because the USA has completely changed its direction after the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before Trump took over the White House, some believed that he would dare to do what Biden was too timid to do, take a tough stance against Putin. This despite the fact that he had already completely contradicted support for Ukraine from the beginning and even had Congress postpone voting on support for six months. Perhaps some thought it was just something he said to rally MAGA supporters. Surveys show, after all, that the majority are in favor of supporting Ukraine and are against Putin.<br>Trump did not stop the deliveries that had already been approved by Biden, but he has completely halted all new support. He does allow Europe to purchase weapons and ammunition. There is, of course, a risk that this will also happen if peace negotiations stall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump&#8217;s plan seems to be about ending the war as quickly as possible, and he does not seem to have any issues with letting Russia win. He imposes tariffs on the rest of the world, pressures Ukraine to give up land, etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most in the West find it difficult to understand Trump&#8217;s behavior. Speculations range from compromising material to being indebted to Putin, to truly wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize, etc. Those who believe that Trump has a well-thought-out plan argue that he completely disregards Ukraine because what happens there is of no interest, it is the archenemy China that he wants to combat. By giving Russia what they want, he would thus draw them closer and get them to align with the West and abandon China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personally, I see it as wishful thinking. China&#8217;s grip on Russia is enormous, and they are entirely dependent on assistance from there. China has, among other things, invested enormous sums in various projects in Russia even before the war; they are (together with India) Russia&#8217;s largest customers. Russia will not leave China; they are far too dependent on them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, it is clear that the war has significantly increased China&#8217;s influence. An end to the war where the USA (and the West) to some extent resume trade and even invest in Russia could reduce China&#8217;s increased influence, but believing that Russia will leave China is naive. <br>When the war ends, it will rather further strengthen China&#8217;s position. When it is time for Russia&#8217;s economy to transition to civilian activities, China is the most likely candidate to help. IF Russia does transition after a potential peace in Ukraine. They have gained momentum, and if it turns out that the USA and Europe allow them to win, the likelihood is high that they will continue on the current path. New attacks on Ukraine, the Baltics, or any other country will be the next target.<br>Of course, they will not want to be dependent on the USA at that point, an USA that may no longer be under Trump&#8217;s control. A USA that can quickly halt all trade, etc. No, it is China that will continue to be their closest ally. A China that has officially stated that they are against the war but supports Russia as much as they can.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Russia also seemed to be approaching the West since the 90s. We have the results on how it went. If the war in Ukraine ends with a Russian victory, they will start a new war sooner or later. Then we are back to square one again without having gained anything, not even a weakened relationship with China.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>The USA and Europe have roughly equal economies. (The US economy is slightly larger and they have significantly more influence in the world. Partly because they have such high consumption that almost everyone depends on exporting to them, and partly because they have a much stronger military capability.)<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>If the goal is to weaken China, Trump would have instead strengthened ties with Europe, Russia&#8217;s economy is nothing compared to the USA and Europe. Improving trade between us and collectively looking for solutions where both parties can reduce China&#8217;s influence would have been the most logical way to go.<br>Here, even a flourishing Ukraine that has defeated Russia could become a strong partner.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Instead, Trump has involved us in endless peace negotiations where he pretends to threaten Russia while Putin continues to gain more time. This seems to have partially paralyzed Europe. Instead of significantly increasing support, it seems they are waiting. There might be peace, so it might be unnecessary to send too much, seems to be the reasoning.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>What Trump is doing is purely destructive, not only for Ukraine but for all parties except for Russia and China, regardless of how one views the matter.<\/strong><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China&#8217;s stance on the war in Ukraine<\/h3>\n<!-- \/wp:heading -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Now we come to what I actually wanted to write about. China. As mentioned, we have analyzed and debated the actions of the USA, but discussions around China are rare. How do they reason about the war and what outcome do they want?<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>As mentioned, Russia is completely dependent on China. China could throw Russia under the bus at any time (as another writer claimed a couple of years ago) and put an end to the war. Since this has not happened, it is obvious that they do not want that.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>At the same time, China has a much larger military power than Russia. They could just as easily join forces with Russia and help them take over Ukraine.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Instead, they assist Russia as much as they can, but mostly with materials classified for civilian use. Drones and technology, golf carts, etc. They do everything to avoid unnecessary sanctions. At the same time, it would not surprise me if they also assist North Korea in terms of their weapon production. In this way, they can indirectly support Russia even with military equipment.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>So, China does not want peace, nor do they want to go all the way and send soldiers and weapons.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>I am convinced that China has a similar plan to what Biden is suspected of having. They do not want Russia to win the war but neither do they want them to lose. The longer the war lasts, the more influence they gain over Russia, and they can also buy natural resources, mainly oil, at greatly discounted prices. They probably also look forward to Russia&#8217;s economy deteriorating as it only increases their chances to gain market share. It is harder to know if they want Russia to crash economically to then make a final push and maybe gain political influence, or if they instead want the war to last a very long time, until they have almost complete economic control and only then can end the war.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>One result of this could be that even Russia&#8217;s economic collapse is delayed. When Russia no longer has the economy to support the mines and other industries that Putin needs to continue producing war materials (many have already started reducing workweeks, etc.) and they are eventually on the brink of closure, it is not entirely unlikely that China, as a benefactor, offers to buy them cheaply and continue running them until they feel they have enough control.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>Reaching a quick but unfair peace with Russia as the winner, as I have already written, could potentially reduce China&#8217;s increased influence, but there is a high risk of a new war soon. Russia&#8217;s only chance to show strength is at the expense of other countries. <br>If we get a new war, we will once again be in the same situation. China would once again continue to tighten its grip on Russia.<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><strong>The best solution, regardless of how one views it, is to support Ukraine so that they can defeat Russia and win the war.<\/strong><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p>SLAVA UKRAINI<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The war in Ukraine &#8211; The US, Europe, and China&#8217;s stance on the war.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":805,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2518","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - 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Gillar statisitk och redovisar bl.a. ryska f\u00f6rluster och en hel del annat. Postar mycket av nyheterna i kommentarerna som h\u00e4mtas fr\u00e5n olika k\u00e4llor. F\u00f6rutom Ukraina handlar det om olika h\u00e4ndelser i Sverige och Europa, klimatet, Israel-Palestina och f\u00f6rst\u00e5s en hel del kring USA och Trump. Har en f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga att reta upp de som gillar den sistn\u00e4mnde eftersom jag \u00e4r starkt kritiskt till det mesta han tar sig f\u00f6r. IT-ansvarig och sk\u00f6ter drift, underh\u00e5ll och vidareutveckling av webbplatsen, s\u00e5 ni vet vem ni ska skylla p\u00e5 n\u00e4r det kr\u00e5nglar! 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