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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nHow far will Ukraine advance on this European pivot – I am of the opinion that they need full asymmetric warfare to have a chance to succeed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When Trump’s latest turn of peace negotiations was about to begin, he pushed for a “ceasefire” until he met Putin. Europe’s leaders wrote their letter and demanded a ceasefire, which Ukraine also did in statements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A ceasefire would have been absolutely devastating and I screamed – not only could Putin have unleashed everything useful in Ukraine and used it elsewhere, but he would also have gotten the start of his win that he needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine would have collapsed like a souffl\u00e9 from that blow, and GRU\/FSB\/SVR would have gained a foothold somewhere to start unraveling the country – a ceasefire would effectively have taken away the last hope the shooters had left.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I am of the opinion that China and Russia are up to something fishy but that Europe might crash the party – as usual, we will probably find out in Q1 2026 maybe when the first leaks come?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now it seems that Russia was more concerned that Europe (not the USA) would use a ceasefire to send troops into Ukraine, and that is apparently the Russians’ nightmare above all else. Europe was clear that they would do so, which was appreciated, everyone except Poland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Was it Putin who saved us, rhetorical question of course, but Europe seemed to be heading completely in the wrong direction there and if Putin had agreed to a ceasefire, history would have repeated itself with a paper-waving Chamberlain and “peace in our time.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n We discussed the above sequence of events in last week’s post and you all read everything, right? \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then we have the meeting in the USA where Trump absolutely praised Europe and showed them his MAGA cap collection – every leader worth something in Europe showed up, including a grumpy Meloni. Quite a big difference from when JD Vance and Trump attacked leader after leader and humiliated them at various meetings – Kier Starmer got the Zelensky treatment for example and in various media they have been tough on our leaders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then they are suddenly hailed as living demigods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And then suddenly it all breaks loose, and it is clear that Europe has made a U-turn –<\/p>\n\n\n\n First came Druzba which we immediately attacked because it was huge – it has been completely forbidden for over three years by Europe, the USA probably wouldn’t have cared. Do not touch and a big no-no from us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Or, before Druzba actually came, there was Azerbaijan’s U-turn that we speculated about revealing an early change in course a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n An attack on Druzba, another attack, and then a third attack where Hungary and Slovakia absolutely scream over having lost out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And Europe’s leaders are laughing heartily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then Macron calls the Russians “Orcs and barbarians” – Macron is a weather vane but these are very harsh words even coming from him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Stubb has clear and straightforward communication right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since the beginning of August, refinery attacks have reached ten (10) including a re-run at the Syrzan refinery on August 24.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukrainian drones at nuclear power plants – THAT has been absolutely forbidden, now remains to be seen if it was a one-time occurrence or if there will be more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n You don’t need to cause a Chernobyl just to disrupt the power grid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/ukraine-drone-hits-russian-nuclear-plant-sparks-huge-fire-novateks-ust-luga-2025-08-24<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Something that has completely disappeared from the reporting was Ukrainian Special Operations Forces near the strategic nuclear weapons deep in Russia a few months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since Trump definitely did not turn, it can only mean that Europe has had enough and sided with Ukraine. This is all Ukraine needs because then they can win the war with full asymmetric warfare and the shooters regain hope – I believe hope is actually the most important factor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hungary and Slovakia will not be able to block for much longer in the EU because they have no electricity to charge their phones and will have to sit there in the dark waiting for winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yes, we could have a 1939 scenario where Europe declares war on Russia and then does nothing so Ukraine crashes anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But Europe has awakened and Putin has to deal with that now, it changed overnight and would of course come sooner or later but Putin used Trump to delay it as long as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Why we have awakened just now we can only speculate –<\/p>\n\n\n\n -we see for ourselves how Ukraine is retreating in dominant terrain and shooting down fewer Gerans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -We know how Russia is arming faster than Europe anticipated because China has built up their entire war material production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -We have followed the EU’s failed trip to China where they were picked up by some administrator and driven to the hotel by bus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -How Trump plays on Team Red with Putin is very clear – now the USA wants a strong Russia to dampen the EU and stand together against China, but look at Venezuela to see how the USA reacts to threats in the neighborhood. Trump is driving the USA line, that should be very clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -Zapad 25 and increased threat level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n -How the wave of sabotage sweeps across Europe we have also followed – a large number of arrests for deliberate forest fires, for example, young men where the worst sinners have started 60 forest fires each. Some full-time work over this so someone is presumably paying?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Choose for yourselves, each one is sufficient reason to have had enough really\ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n Everything is always relative, applies to both Russia and Ukraine. Now, finally, the UA counterattack has started at the end of August when the period for offensive action has been since mid-March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They have also given up dominant terrain and maybe it’s as simple as they didn’t dare to do anything as long as Trump pushed his peace plan?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since RU has advanced, they have not been prepared for defense – now that colossus on clay feet must try to adjust which takes some time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If I may guess, I believe Putin understands that he has a tight schedule now before the door to Ukraine and the Baltics is permanently closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After that, Europe will eventually arm him down behind a mile-deep minefield along the entire eastern border and he knows exactly how the Cold War ended.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Either he lies down, takes the hits, and the Russian empire starts to wobble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Or he escalates, a final all-in on red and hopes for the best.<\/p>\n\n\n What feels most Russian?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Well \u2013 then everything is always relative and what Russia can actually achieve in practice is a factor in the mix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine always has a plan for offensive actions, they had it in the fall of 2024 but Trump ruined the party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump also prevented Ukraine from targeting objectives in Russia (just as we said!)<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/omni.se\/kallor-usa-blockerar-kyivs-attacker-mot-ryssland\/a\/lwGwrM<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Sirsky has already confirmed it in the link below that I posted earlier, so I might have been stating the obvious, but now it’s undeniable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/4017977-cinc-syrskyi-urges-us-eu-to-provide-more-air-defense-and-allow-strikes-deep-into-russia.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Just as Biden stopped everything \u2013 it took a few years before what I had been claiming all along was confirmed, and many doubted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s actually not that difficult \u2013 look at the ACTIONS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Ukraine targets refineries at a high pace until February 22, 2025, and then stops abruptly \u2013 high chance that Trump stopped it, right, since his peace journey began.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But there are two sides to this tango \u2013 Ukraine is also a party in the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Europe changes its stance and wakes up, Ukraine will be able to target Russian objectives in Russia as they wish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Even though the equipment the USA is sending soon still comes with limitations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But Ukraine is clear that all targets in Russia will be hit with domestic weapons \u2013 it took a few years for this to happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But Druzba is pyramid-sized, a whole war off-limits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The refineries are not just refineries, they are also oil depots and the railway network, so they are targeting the entire chain for fuel in Russia now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Export terminals and LNG should also be included, as well as oil production and infrastructure \u2013 basically the whole package that is now being targeted with high intensity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Of course, it would have been better if they had continued in February, that’s probably understood by everyone, but resuming it at 11:59 is better than nothing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I think Trump lost control \u2013 Europe threatened with the national debt, and he had to give in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe has also had enough \u2013 we understand that our turn is coming, sooner or later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Ukraine is given free rein for its asymmetric warfare, they will win this even if it might not be entirely fair to put everything on them again for the seventeenth time after we actively sabotaged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine has offensive reserves and they always have a plan, I expected offensive operations in the fall of 2024 but Trump ruined it, and his peace journey has mainly aimed to try to demoralize Ukraine as much as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine has definitely suffered these three years, and volunteers in Ukraine have told us that the atmosphere was at its lowest during Trump’s rampages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Ukraine can combine something on the battlefield that looks bad for Putin with massive strategic targeting and other asymmetric warfare measures, Putin’s house of cards will collapse pretty quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Putin is worried<\/p>\n\n\n\n China is worried<\/p>\n\n\n\n WW2 escalated into a hurricane because Europe remained passive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The war in Ukraine and Russia’s and China’s constant global escalation had to happen because Europe remained passive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In words, Europe said the wrong things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But in action, everything has changed in Ukraine \u2013 what Europe should have done then is to take responsibility and tell Ukraine that we stand behind you, go ahead with whatever you want.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Macron is a weathervane, and now he’s tough in words again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Azerbaijan joins the game, it will also become lively, and Russia has carried out several large-scale sabotage operations against them in the past month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A turnaround was needed in Europe \u2013 and now it has come before peace in our time, so the likelihood of a favorable outcome for Europe has increased significantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n My salary in dollars is a minor disaster, I can tell you it’s quite noticeable…<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump has put all his trust capital in Putin, and he would have a peace in Ukraine to boast about \u2013 the fact that Europe is pulling ahead doesn’t look good for him at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s so obvious that Trump is rigging everything to look good for the masses \u2013 soon the USA will go to war with Venezuela over Russian Geran in the country, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n With a bit of luck, Trump will also fall \u2013 he deserves it. Probably, he will retract his claws regarding the UA war and Europe and continue to try to squeeze everything out of Obama and Clinton for the next 3.5 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If no one stops Ukraine, Russia will turn inwards. For those who skimmed through the posts, it means that Putin loses the respect of the others in the criminal clan and is deposed by means of a gasoline-soaked fireball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then the country will try to decide on a new leader for the cartel, and they have 400,000 in private armies and letter agencies at their disposal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine will activate all liberation fronts and the mosaic of minority groups in different republics who want their, according to the UN, legally mandated freedom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Because Ukraine understands that only a collapsed Russia will lead to peace in our time, that we must take the shortcut through that first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This war was supposed to be decided in 2025, and if Europe doesn’t change its stance now, the war is likely already decided. It could have been settled in 2022 when the entire VDV was on the wrong side of the Dnieper, but the USA solved it for Putin just like the attack on the northern front in the winter of 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Wagner clearly showed in the summer of 2023 how an all-out Ukrainian offensive straight to Moscow could have gone in the winter of 2023, but Ukraine had to use volunteers and no Western weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Belgians screamed when Ukraine used UN-fal personal weapons when they crossed the border.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We will see some spectacular liberation deeds in the future, but RU will continue with further offensives, and we sincerely hope that UA can meet them and retaliate strongly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then the great Empire collapses and breaks up into ten new countries, Kaliningrad becomes autonomous and demilitarized, and Belarus gets its popular revolution that we denied them last time around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Big steps towards real peace in our time, therefore \u2013 very positive \u2013 positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I will try to keep up with Omfall B \u2013 active defense against Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On Substack \u2013 there is still a chance to become subscribers and it would be valuable to me if you want to become paying subscribers. All content is posted freely to everyone, but it still takes a lot of time to put together, costs 80 SEK per month, and then you skip a meal at McDonald’s, so it’s also healthy \u2013 Johan No.1 makes you healthier too \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Continued appreciation for the site johanno1.se is always gratefully received, and there is a QR code for the purpose that you absolutely must not miss since we have costs, and there is a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you liked the post \u2013 please share it in your channels, and most importantly, feel free to share the English version with people you think might appreciate posts and comments they haven’t been able to read before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n