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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nAnd Portugal of all places has soured on Trump, very un-Portuguese one must admit – good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It seems my routine has become to post highlights from the news feed on my Bluesky or Substack, and then write comments on johanno1.se during the day where I discuss events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Everything is then analyzed world-leadingly and after various empirical lab tests and further input from big names like Nelson Mandela, I then put together the whole package into a post. All three channels are worth checking out as they are updated all the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Like homework, you do the homework beforehand and become the best in class instead of waiting until the night before submission and crashing everything by playing Starcraft instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you have read up on all the pages, the lunchroom Jesus will have a hard time, you know, the one who always knows everything and shoots you down so violently that you start to consider eating lunch in front of the computer instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Now you have all the information you need for a stunning broadside so he will probably resign in pure horror.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It seems like Ukraine is fighting the whole palette right now, the Ust-Luga LNG facility is burning like a Christmas tree.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And here an oil pipeline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If they can just cut the Yamal-cross, this war is probably over quite soon, such a blow won’t survive Putin \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n\n\n\n And yesterday there were two refinery attacks again, Kuybushevsk and Afipsky in Krasnodar, which was a second-fighting, but it still counts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Good because then we know that Trump didn’t intervene, because something highly relevant in the discussion is that at about this point, the USA and Europe usually intervene in the worst possible ways. Sweeping under the rug is just the beginning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It seems like Trump is on his way to start thinking about how he can stop Ukraine again?<\/p>\n\n\n\n I don’t think Trump has any cards left to play, his power over Ukraine is forfeited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The first thing this tells us is that it hurts Putin, a lot, and that he has gone to complain to Trump who promised to try.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The second is that Ukraine has now reached the level where they have free rein to conduct the asymmetric warfare they find best. If they don’t stop, they will win the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is incomprehensible that the USA\/Trump has tied itself to Russia, but that’s where we are now and my dollar salary is rolling around and dying as we speak \ud83d\ude2d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Avdiivka and Bakhmut fell due to withdrawn support and for Kursk, Ukraine was punished by pausing everything, if I remember correctly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Exactly how the communication has gone will be revealed in the future, but at some level, Russia has been able to convey to the West what is undesirable, and we have accommodated it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For Ukraine to succeed this time, it requires that we don’t intervene – otherwise, it will be the same cycle as during over three years of war, UA gains momentum, UA gets momentum, the West throws a wet blanket over everything, and the situation collapses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I have had a very hard time understanding Europe’s rationale for this, as Russia has been explaining to us since 2007 what their plans are, and now they have begun to implement their diabolical plan where Ukraine is just the beginning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Just as China needs to take Taiwan to get through the door, Russia needs to take Ukraine to reach Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukraine as usual takes the full blow, and the hope is that Europe has now finally realized this, and that UA’s offer to continue taking the blow only applied for another 30 days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What we need now<\/p>\n\n\n\n – 10-15 burning refineries during September and more strikes against oil infrastructure and storage capacity (oil depots).<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Combat all export ports – it’s a dock and technical equipment to pump LNG, oil, or refined products onto ships. There aren’t excessively many lines for that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Continue to drone apart the railway network, ammunition trains and fuel trains are easy targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Sink some ships in the harbor entrances?<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Blow up nodes for oil\/LNG\/refineries going in\/out of Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Start fighting critical infrastructure for the oil fields, you don’t necessarily need to set the oil fields on fire to stop them, right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Continue to strike the nuclear triad, if Ukraine can show that they can reach the missile silos inside Russia, it might start to get a little sweaty here and there in the Russian leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Keep rolling uninterrupted until the back is broken – Ukraine has the capability, and the only reason for calm periods is that they have been stopped by us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump will soon scream and accuse Ukraine of the war, and Putin will threaten with nuclear weapons – Europe’s message to them should be to call someone who cares. Stubb can probably become the spokesperson for all of Europe against Russia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Right now, I get the feeling that a planned Russian and Chinese escalation has collided with Europe waking up and Ukraine getting free rein. I can barely keep up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n First, Xi Jinping has apparently carried out a major purge of officers that hasn’t been done since Mao, apparently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/graphics\/2025-xi-china-military-officials-purge<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n In the Baltic Sea region, it’s almost total chaos, here’s the latest from the past week –<\/p>\n\n\n\n – The USA has a CAG off the coast of Denmark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – RU is sending its hunter-killer submarine there, they have three in the Northern Fleet, all of which have left port.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – A Russian ship for drone surveillance is moving in the Baltic Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – The power outage on Gotland may not have been anything, but it’s worth mentioning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Russian tugs and other ships have moved over submarine cables again in several places. None have been cut, but it’s a reasonable assumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – A German submarine was adrift for a day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – US aircraft to sniff radiation from nuclear weapons have been moving in circles in the Baltic Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n – Some regular violations with flights and drones from RU over various countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I have posted all this on my Bluesky if you want the links, aunsson is good by the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Belarusian defense forces have conducted several major exercises, with Wagner in particular training them for a few years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, it is quite clear that we will not engage in “deterrence” in the Baltics, even though Poland is conducting an exercise with 16 NATO countries and 34,000 participants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n No risk in the Baltics but significant risk in Poland – to me, the way risk and probability of something happening are managed does not add up at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The worst-case scenario I envision is that, by Russian standards, competent forces arrive a week before the offensive starts wherever it is directed, and if it were the Baltics, Russian locking measures would follow after a few days with minefields in Suwalki and the Baltic Fleet so the West does not have time to deploy forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But now I believe the risk of Putin daring to attack Europe decreased significantly after our “show of force\/deterrence” against Trump recently, we showed some teeth and claws.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, I also do not believe that Europe is trying to lure Russia into the Baltics to strike them, so our lack of threshold effect has another explanation; we are not following the drawn-up plans at all right now, which the Balts have loudly complained about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I am not so sure that Europe would go to war with Russia over the Baltics; the latest discussion is that a majority of European citizens do not want that, and we are democracies where everything should be voted on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And this is before Russian influence kicks in to delay and disrupt all decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time, I believe the risk of increased pressure on Ukraine has risen because it is still risk-free for Putin, and above all, a future where Europe strengthens Ukraine after a ceasefire is a worst-case scenario for Russia – that seems to be the crux of the matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is clear that RU is building up for offensive operations at the Dnieper and the southern front, they have introduced new capabilities, including possibly Chechen forces (which may indeed be special forces…), as well as ammunition and fuel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One scenario I have long pondered but is not very likely is if Hungary were to get adventurous – Orban dismissed 100 senior officers early in the war, and we already know that they mobilized once in the war to enter their historical areas in Ukraine, but then things probably went poorly for Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Transnistria, RU has already built up capabilities – two battalions in total is incorrect, there are probably plenty of militias, special forces, and other units they have smuggled in over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If RU can close Ukraine’s land border to Poland, they would gain a lot, and an attack from Belarus and then north from Transnistria and Hungary would, if nothing else, be very difficult for Ukraine to handle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I think this is beyond what the West would intervene in, and if Poland’s defense forces are tied up against Belarus, there may be a risk of success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Moreover, it would be disastrous for Hungary, but what do they have to lose, the oil has been shut off, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n A final all-or-nothing scenario where the upside is that Ukraine falls before Europe gets organized, so we end up with a fait accompli and don’t have to do anything?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Worth a try?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Just as I was glued to the Trump-Zelensky meeting, I check deep state every day and follow this with great interest now, hoping the clock is still at 11:59.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Russia’s back is broken, they will take the full blow, and maybe China can be persuaded to back off. Then we should have 20-30 good years after that, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Just looking at the level of sabotage in Europe is enough to understand where we are heading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our strongest card – Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They can bring down Russia, causing the country to turn inward into chaos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As for the new areas under Plan B, integration according to the Swedish model applies – the second generation is fully integrated into our culture and traditions, so it only takes a few years for the areas to no longer be particularly Russian\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n\n\n\n I think Finland is becoming increasingly assertive in its rhetoric and I have a feeling that they are a bit of a “secret buyer” for Ukraine since the start of the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They have kept quiet about what they provide, and Ukraine never gets to thank them, but after the war, I believe we will discover that Finland is the country that has given the most of all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They quickly realized that the weaker Russia becomes, the better for them – simply well-used tax money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n They should also have already embraced warfare in 2025, unlike the rest of us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Furthermore, the strategic attacks on Crimea are almost pre-emptive now, they have changed somewhat in nature – I believe Zelensky is still following my battle plan even though it has been a while \ud83d\ude0d\ud83d\ude0d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Continued appreciation for the johanno1.se site is always gratefully received, and there is a QR code for this purpose that you absolutely must not miss as we have costs, and there is a donation page with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations we have learned over time are legitimate and dare to donate to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you liked the post – please share it in your channels, and above all, feel free to share the English version with people you think may appreciate posts and comments they have not been able to read before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n johanno1.se<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n